A Reason to Marvel at the late Super Typhoon Wutip. (Imagery Credit: Himawari-8 Satellite Imager)3/1/2019 DISCUSSION: There is no question that scientists and non-scientists alike from around the globe were mesmerized over the past week with the formation and intensification of Super Typhoon Wutip over in the Western Pacific Ocean basin. There were several things which greatly impressed the global atmospheric science community about this tropical cyclone. First off, it is worth noting that while it is certainly not impossible to contend with a strong tropical cyclone in the tropical Western Pacific Ocean during the month of February, it is certainly not something that is close to commonplace from a historical perspective in that part of the world. More specifically, Typhoon Wutip and then eventually Super Typhoon Wutip reached a peak intensity with top maximum sustained winds of 155-mph (i.e., the equivalent of a powerful Category 4 hurricane in the tropical Atlantic or tropical Eastern/Central Pacific Ocean basins). Moreover, at that peak intensity, Wutip intensified into what is now the strongest tropical cyclone ever observed north of the equator during the month of February over the past 70 years. There is a lot to be said for and a major reality check to be respected since it goes without saying that this was an unprecedented event over in the tropical Western Pacific Ocean basin. The fortunate aspect to the entire existence of Wutip is that it never impacted any landmasses in any legitimate capacity which was most certainly a major “breath of fresh air” in the context of corresponding emergency management agencies and organizations in that part of the world.
When events such as this one unfolds before the globally televised as well as social media platforms, there is an immediate inclination to get into a massive “digital frenzy” over whether such an event could be or should be viewed as a direct (or even an indirect) result of global climate change issues. The simplest response to that thought/question is that such an event can simply NOT be claimed as a result of climate change since climate change over the course of years, decades, centuries, and millennia. Thus, the notion for anyone to try to convince a media-based audience that such an event is a result (in any capacity) to the current and ongoing impacts from climate change are inaccurate and needs to be clarified. One such clarification would be that from the most fundamental standpoint, tropical cyclones rely on the upper-most part of the global tropical ocean basins to have warm water over large regions in order to form and potentially intensify over some given period. Thus, with a gradually net warming occurring on a global scale and some of this warming being observed within the world’s oceans, there can most certainly be a measurable increase in the average amount of available “fuel” for tropical cyclone development and subsequent intensification. Hence, despite the robust nature of Super Typhoon Wutip as reflected in the image and brief infrared satellite imagery animation attached above, it is imperative to recognize and respect the reality that a single event (while very impressive to the scientific and non-scientific world alike) can never be attributed to climate change. But, nonetheless, there are always valuable lessons to be learned so disastrous impacts from landfalls of such powerful storms can continue to be mitigated in the future. To learn more about other high-impact weather events occurring across Western Pacific Ocean, click here! © 2019 Meteorologist Jordan Rabinowitz
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Appreciating Tropical Development in its Most Classical Sense (Imagery credit: CIRA RAMMB)10/2/2018
DISCUSSION: It may already seen like ancient history to much of the planet, but it was just 5 short days ago that the world was watching a majestic Super Typhoon Kong Rey thrive across the tropical Western Pacific Ocean. There is no debate that the relatively high amount of net oceanic heat content helped to support the rapid intensification of what was a large and dangerous tropical cyclone in Super Typhoon Kong Rey. Having said that, it is important to acknowledge that it is not justified to go follow societal convention and try to connect the occurrence of Super Typhoon Kong Rey with any issues either directly or indirectly connected to global climatic variability. This is due to the fact that global climatic variability occurs on multi-decadal timescales (i.e., over the course of at least 20 to 30 + years). Thus, any single event cannot even be connected to climate change-based influences, but that also does not mean that there cannot be any overlap from warmer (i.e. above-average) oceanic heat content presence.
Attached above is a brief video briefing which provides additional insight into how and why Super Typhoon Kong Rey evolved in the way that it did. There is also a brief discussion on how and why such events could continue to become more commonplace with passing time. To learn more about other high-impact weather events occurring across the tropical Western Pacific Ocean basin, be sure to click here! © 2018 Meteorologist Jordan Rabinowitz
DISCUSSION: There is no doubt that the tropical cyclone basins around the world have continued to impress the planet over the past several weeks and right now, the tropical Western Pacific Ocean basin is no different with Super Typhoon Trami taking headlines. Presently, people across far southern Japan as well as across northern and eastern portions of Taiwan are getting ready for potential impacts from this very intense and large tropical cyclone. Attached above is a brief video briefing which discusses the reasons for why this tropical cyclone is particularly dangerous and explains what the current and future concerns are with this tropical cyclone.
To learn more about other high-impact weather events occurring across the Western Pacific Ocean basin, be sure to click here! © 2018 Meteorologist Jordan Rabinowitz DISCUSSION: As global temperatures and carbon dioxide levels rise, every ecosystem on our planet feels the effects from it. Over much of the planet, winters are getting warmer, weather events are becoming more frequent and harsh, dry places are becoming drier, and wet places are becoming wetter. The rapid change in ecosystems ultimately leaves a strained impact on the delicate balance on life, and affects us all. One of the less commonly talked about ecological changes is under the ocean, where coral reefs are dying, and in turn leaving thousands of species of marine life to wither away.
Coral bleaching, also referred to as coral whitening, occurs when algae leave the tissue of corals, leaving them white in appearance and vulnerable. With higher carbon dioxide levels entering our atmosphere, thanks to anthropogenic reasons, much of it gets absorbed into the oceans. This changes the chemistry of the oceans and ultimately makes it warmer and stressful. The algae leave due to these stressed conditions. At this point, the vulnerable coral are not dead, but have little chance to recover and will die if temperatures are not brought down to equilibrium. One area where bleaching is prominent is the Coral Triangle, a triangular area of the tropical marine waters of Indonesia, Malaysia, Papua New Guinea, Philippines, Solomon Islands and Timor-Leste that contain at least 500 species of reef-building corals. The image above details areas where coral reefs are being threatened. About 95% of these reefs are at risk of bleaching. The amount of life these corals hold are enormous, and without the shelter of the reefs, they will certainly die, disrupting the food chain and the lives of people around the world. For more information about marine weather, be sure to click here! ©2018 Meteorologist David Tedesco DISCUSSION: The top figure (courtesy of the Joint Typhoon Warning Center [JTWC])shows the previous and forecast positions of TS Banyan in the West Pacific. The storm moved just to the southwest and west of Wake Island and is expected to move northward and eventually turn toward the northeast as it moves into the mid-latitudes. Fortunately for Wake Island, the storm is pretty compact with its strongest winds and heaviest rains not extending very far from the storm center. The second figure above shows the rainfall associated with the storm retrieved from the Special Sensor Microwave Imager Sounder (color) and IR brightness temperatures (grayscale) from the Himawari-8 satellite (courtesy Naval Research Laboratory [NRL] Monterey) valid around 07Z 12 August 2017. The heaviest rainfall is clearly concentrated around the storm center. In the near term, the storm is expected to intensify into a typhoon as it moves over warm water and experiences a healthy upper-level outflow. However, no landmasses lay near the forecast track of Banyan over the next 5 days.
To learn more about other high-impact weather events occurring across the Western Pacific Ocean, be sure to click here! ©2017 Meteorologist Dr. Ken Leppert II On July 24, 2017, Tropical Storm Sonca was located about 161 miles east-northeast of Vietnam with sustained winds of 46 mph. Wind shear is effecting the storm by displacing the main thunderstorm activity to the west of the center. The wind shear is weakening however, which will allow Sonca to strengthen a little before making landfall in Vietnam. Tropical Storm Sonca is forecasted to make landfall with maximum sustained winds near 57 mph on Tuesday near the city of Vinh in Vietnam. Watches and warnings have been issued and extend from the North Bacbo Gulf in north Vietnam to Binj Thujan in the south. After making landfall, Sonca is expected to dramatically weaken and be a remnant by Wednesday. The following is the complete text from NASA:
"On July 24 at 1:45 a.m. EDT (05:45 UTC) the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer or MODIS instrument aboard NASA's Aqua satellite captured a visible-light image of Tropical Storm Sonca approaching Vietnam. Sonca appears slightly elongated in the visible imagery. Forecasters at the Joint Typhoon Warning Center who looked at Sonca with multispectral satellite imagery noted that the central convection and thunderstorms associated with the storm were displaced slightly to the west of the center as a result of wind shear. That displacement makes the storm appear somewhat elongated on visible imagery. That easterly wind shear is weakening, however, which will allow Sonca to strengthen slightly before it makes landfall just south of the city of Vinh. Vinh is the capital of Nghệ An Province and is located on the North Central Coast. At 5 a.m. EDT (0900 UTC) on July 24, Sonca's maximum sustained winds were near 46 mph (40 knots/74 kph). It was centered near 17.0 degrees north latitude and 110.9 degrees east longitude. That's about 161 miles east-northeast of Da Nang, Vietnam. Sonca was moving west at 5.7 mph (5 knots/9.2 kph). Warnings and watches stretch from the North Bacbo Gulf in northern Vietnam to Cau Mau to Binj Thujan in the south. Sonca is forecast to strengthen to 57 mph (50 knots/92 kph) before making landfall in central Vietnam on July 25." Stay tuned for more in the tropics here! ⓒ 2017 Meteorologist Brandie Cantrell The Japan Meteorological Agency has issued advisories for two tropical systems in the western Pacific. Tropical Storm Kulap is located in the northwestern Pacific forecasted to move to the southwest. Current maximum sustained winds are near 35 knots at the center with higher gusts outside of the center. The JMA suggests that Kulap will strengthen slightly with having maximum sustained winds near 45 knots, however, the system will lose that strength in the next day. Another tropical system worth noting is Tropical Storm Noru which is centered just southwest of Kulap with maximum sustained winds near 35 knots. Noru is expected to remain almost stationary during the next three days. Noru is forecasted to strengthen to having maximum sustained winds near 70 knots by July 24, 2017, which would be a category 1 typhoon. On July 24, Noru is expected to slowly start moving east-southeast as a typhoon. Tropical Depression C is located in the South China Sea moving west-southwest very slowly. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 knots and is expected to strengthen to 35 knots. The forecast period for this system is only until July 21, 2017, which means the next few days are uncertain as far as location and strength. Out of the three systems, C is the closest to land, Kulap is moving the fastest, and Noru is forecasted to become the strongest.
Stay up-to-date on tropical systems around the world here! ⓒ 2017 Meteorologist Brandie Cantrell DISCUSSION – Tropical Storm Meari, located in the Western Pacific and is currently seeing maximum sustained winds of 55 knots with gusts as high at 70 knots. It is seen about 330 NM West Northwest of Navsta, Guam. As Meari continues to move North Northeastward at approximately 7 knots. Meari is picking up additional energy associated with a quick forming low-level circulation allowing the storm to be fed more energy from the warm moist waters of the western Pacific. All of this is producing a large area of convective activity within the system.
Meari is expected to strengthen some as upper-level flow becomes more favorable for outflow coupled with low level wind shear, which will assist in the formation of bands. Meari is not expected to impact any major zones at is nears Guam and the Philippines. As Meari continues in open water strengthening to Typhoon is likely. ~Meteorologist Jessica Olsen Typhoon Haima Affects Air Traffic Across East Asia! (credit: www.flightradar24.com via Meteo Europe)10/21/2016 DISCUSSION: As Typhoon Haima continues to march into parts of eastern Asia, you can clearly see the affect which this tropical cyclone is having on the flight tracks of commercial aircraft travelling in the vicinity of this storm. Note how many of the flights are being forced to divert around the core of Haima as it began its all-out assault on parts of eastern China earlier today! A very common sight with respect to the re-routing of both commercial and private aircraft in the vicinity of an ocean-bound and/or landfalling tropical cyclone!
To learn more about other high-impact weather events from across the Western Pacific Ocean, be sure to click here! ~Meteorologist Jordan Rabinowitz DISCUSSION: As Super Typhoon Haima continues to bear down on the northern Philippines, many people have been wondering and asking about details of this storm's potential impacts both within and beyond the Philippines! Be sure to watch the short video briefing update on Haima to hear the latest information on this dangerous tropical cyclone!
To learn more about other high-impact weather events from across the Western Pacific Ocean, be sure to click here! ~Meteorologist Jordan Rabinowitz Super Typhoon Haima Heading For The Northern Philippines! (credit: Dan Lindsey via Himawari-8)10/18/2016
DISCUSSION: As people continue to mentally and physically recover both along parts of the Southeast U.S. and Bermuda from the recent impacts of Hurricane Matthew and Hurricane Nicole respectively, the world's attention now turns to the Tropical West Pacific Ocean basin. This attention is due to the robust presence of what is now Super Typhoon Haima which has quickly made global headlines and will soon make even more headlines with its current heading aimed directly at northern portions of the Philippines. Unfortunately, this event has the potential to deliver similar impacts as those felt in association with Super Typhoon Haiyan which impacted nearly all of the central and northern Philippines back in November 2013. Though this storm is somewhat weaker than Haiyan was even prior to the time of landfall, this storm is still comparable in strength.
More specifically, Super Typhoon Haima currently has maximum sustained winds of 165 mph with gusts up to (or possibly just over 200 mpn) very close to this tropical cyclone's circulation center. Thus, as a point of reference, it currently is maintaining the equivalent intensity as that found in association with a Category 5 hurricane in the Tropical Atlantic or Tropical Eastern/Central Pacific basins. Therefore, this is an incredibly dangerous tropical cyclone which has now become a very serious threat to the central/northern Philippines as well as eastern China upon Haima re-emerging over the northern South China Sea. Though it is forecast to weaken down to the equivalent of a Category 2 hurricane after the first landfall in the Philippines, Haima will then present a serious coastal and inland flooding threat to eastern China. Note how in the visible satellite loop attached above (courtesy of Meteorologist Dan Lindsey via the Himawari-8 satellite imager), you can clearly identify the perfect symmetry and large, clear eye associated with Haima as of a little earlier today! The bottom line is that this is an incredibly dangerous tropical cyclone which will continue to deliver increasing more pronounced impacts to the central and northern Philippines as time continues to pass! Be sure to stay tuned for updates on the status and progress of Super Typhoon Haima right here at the Global Weather and Climate Center as we move forward in time! ~Meteorologist Jordan Rabinowitz DISCUSSION: As dawn (dusk) set in across the Atlantic (Western Pacific) tropical ocean basins, there are 2 very different weather stories taking headlines in both parts of the world. Across the far parts of the Western Pacific Ocean, Typhoon Chaba is making headlines as it remains a strong and dangerous typhoon (i.e., the equivalent of a Category 3 hurricane at the current time). Over the next few days, Typhoon Chaba will become an increasing threat for parts of southern and central Japan as it continues to move north-northwestward before gradually shifting to more of a north/northeasterly heading. This will put several hundred thousand people across southern/central Japan in the path of what will then be a weakening typhoon and ultimately a fading tropical storm within about 72 to 96 hours from now.
Alternatively, as many of our recent posts have covered, Hurricane Matthew has been, still is, and will remain to be one of the bigger news headlines across the Tropical Atlantic and across much of the Western Hemisphere for that matter. At the present time, Hurricane Matthew has strengthened somewhat since earlier this morning based on an increase in the observed maximum sustained wind speeds from 140 to 145 mph with higher gusts. Thus, Matthew remains a strong and very dangerous Category 4 hurricane as the center continues slowly tracking northward over the next couple of days. As noted in previous posts, Jamaica and Western Haiti have already been under and will remain to be under Hurricane Warnings for at least the next 24 to 36 hours. Depending on the exact forward speed of this tropical cyclone over the next few days and the exact track Matthew follows, some of these details may change a bit. However, there is sufficiently high confidence in the overall short-term forecast for Matthew that there will be life-threatening conditions across the aforementioned regions as well as points further north. Therefore, be sure to stay tuned right here at the Global Weather and Climate Center for updates on Matthew and Chaba! To learn more about other high-impact tropical cyclone-based weather events from across the world, be sure to click here! ~Meteorologist Jordan Rabinowitz
DISCUSSION: As Typhoon Megi continues on its current westward track across the far Western Pacific Ocean, you can see the gorgeous, symmetric structure associated with Megi as of earlier today (local time). In the animated visible satellite imagery below, you can notice even more detailed structure associated with the classic banded outflow structure. This is denoted by the healthy and symmetric outflow of cloud bands emanating from the center in a cyclonic direction. Therefore, despite this storm's recent period of intensification occurred reasonably close to its first landfall projected for eastern parts of Taiwan, it still has become and will remain to be a very dangerous tropical cyclone. Currently, Typhoon Megi has sustained winds of 115 MPH with maximum wind gusts up to or possibly just over 145 MPH. This makes Megi the equivalent of a Category 3 hurricane based upon the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale (i.e., the intensity scale which rates hurricane based on the maximum sustained wind speed associated with a tropical cyclone at a given point in time).
To learn more about other high-impact weather events from across the Western Pacific Ocean, be sure to click here! ~Meteorologist Jordan Rabinowitz Typhoon Malakas Beginning To Lose Some Steam... (credit: University of Wisconsin-Madison CIMSS)9/17/2016
DISCUSSION: As Typhoon Malakas continues to gradually lose strength over the cooler waters just north of Taiwan, the impacts across Central/North Taiwan as well as far southern Japan (i.e., the smaller individual islands located to the south of the primary island of Japan) will gradually abate over the next 12 to 24 hours. At this point in time, Malakas remains to be a dangerous tropical cyclone across the far Western Pacific Ocean with maximum sustained winds still holding at 115 MPH (with occasional gusts up to 145 MPH) making it the equivalent of a Category 3 hurricane (as recognized in the Tropical Central/Eastern Pacific Ocean as well as the Tropical Atlantic Ocean basins). Thus, despite the current weakening trend, there are still legitimate threats to much of Japan as this strong tropical cyclone continues moving to the north and northeast over the next few days!
As a result of this continued threat from Typhoon Malakas, it is in the best interest of people currently residing across both southern and central parts of Japan to make the necessary preparations for this approaching storm. Based on recent infrared satellite imagery trends associated with the circulation of Malakas, there is evidence for re-cooling and an increasingly symmetrical appearance of cloud top temperatures associated with thunderstorms near the center of Malakas. This operationally suggests that Typhoon Malakas may be briefly trying to go through a final cycle of intensification as it continues northward. Despite this continued threat, Malakas spared Taiwan from devastating impacts (albeit widely scattered occurrences of both landslides and mudslides across the island nation of Taiwan) since it ended up tracking just to the east of Taiwan. Nonetheless, even without a direct hit, the combination of gusty winds and heavy rainfall (courtesy of outer bands propagating across Taiwain) generated notable impacts. Hence, as it continues moving to higher latitudes, people should absolutely remain vigilant since even a weakening tropical cyclone is still a viable threat to both life and property. To learn more about other high-impact weather events across the Western Pacific Ocean, be sure to click here! @Meteorologist Jordan Rabinowitz DISCUSSION: As of the last few days, the Tropical Western Pacific Ocean has been quite active, namely, by way of the most recent tropical cyclone called Meranti becoming a Super Typhoon. Super Typhoon Meranti (as seen in the image above courtesy of the NOAA Satellite and Information Service) is at the equivalent intensity of a Category 5 hurricane across the Tropical Atlantic Basin with maximum sustained winds of 185 MPH with occasional gusts up to or possibly over 225 MPH. Therefore, as it gets closer to its final approach to the island nation of Taiwan, Meranti will remain a very legitimate and serious threat to both life and property across the aforementioned parts of the Western Pacific Ocean as well as points to the west/northwest. As it continues on its current heading (i.e., off to the west and eventually off to the west-northwest), there will be a substantial increase in the overall impacts (i.e., predominantly from the storm surge emanating from the northern side of Meranti across many southern and far southeastern parts of Taiwan as well as strong/gusty winds coupled with heavy rainfall associated with stronger progating rain bands). If you or anyone you know is currently in this part of the world, alert them of this situation as conditions across both far southern Taiwan and East-Central China will rapidly deteriorate during the day on Wednesday and Thursday as the center of Meranti makes it closest approach to southern Taiwan and then an actual landfall across East-Central China during the late morning/early afternoon on Thursday.
As seen in the high-resolution satellite image above (courtesy of the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (aka VIIRS) aboard NOAA/NASA Suomi NPP satellite), you can clearly denote the nearly-perfect and symmetric eye which was and still remains in place within the core of Meranti. This very well-defined eye is indicative of the immense power and overall strength of this very intense tropical cyclone moving across the heart of Tropical Western Pacific. In addition, you can also clearly see the very symmetric banding structure associated with what is scientifcally referred to as a classic "annular cyclone," wherein the cyclonically-rotating bandings features which are pivoting around the center of the circulation and nearly perfectly synchronized from west-to-east and from north-to-south. To learn more about other high-impact weather events from across the Western Pacific Ocean, be sure to click here! @Meteorologist Jordan Rabinowitz
DISCUSSION: As a powerful Typhoon Lionrock continues to march in a northeastward direction at this time, the core structure associated with the core circulation of this typhoon is very impressive. As seen in the animation attached below, the near-perfect asymmetry tied to the eye of this typhoon has become very photogenic based on its overall consistency around the inner-core of this tropical cyclone. Having said that, this particular tropical cyclone continues to remain a threat for the island of Japan being as though it will soon begin to turn to the northwest (similar to the way in which Hurricane Sandy turned to the northwest just offshore from the New Jersey coastline back in 2012) which will deliver substantial impacts to the island nation of Japan within the next couple of days! Also, not the sheer size of this tropical cyclone and the large spatial area over which its associated cloud-mass covers from north-to-south and also from east-to-west. This certainly is a neat tropical cyclone from start to finish without question! To learn more about other high-impact weather events from across the Western Pacific Ocean, be sure to click here!
Tropical Storm Omais Forms In Western Pacific Earlier! (credit: National Weather Service Guam)8/4/2016
DISCUSSION: Just after the recent Category 1 Hurricane Earl made landfall in the Eastern Yucatán Peninsula (located in Eastern Mexico) very early this morning, things quickly ramped up on the other side of the world today. More specifically, as a relatively new Monsoon Depression continued to become increasingly more organized, it was officially upgraded to Tropical Storm Omais! Though this storm is predominantly expected to remain over the warm waters of the Western Pacific Ocean, there is still a marginal longer-term threat for the potential impacts to parts of extreme Southern and Eastern Japan within 4 to 5 days! However, since that estimated forecast position is more than 72 hours away, this estimated forecast position has a high-degree of uncertainty associated with it! To learn more about other high-impact weather events from across the Western Pacific Ocean, be sure to click here!
@Meteorologist Jordan Rabinowitz
DISCUSSION: Super typhoon Nepartak’s evolution across central portions in the Western Pacific Ocean is a testament to the incredibly rapid changes that can occur in association with rapidly intensifying tropical cyclones in that part of the world. In the video below which captured the evolution of the cyclone by the Himawari-8 Satellite, note how the formation of the tropical storm began on July 2nd as a cluster of thunderstorms. By July 3rd , this intensifying tropical cyclone rapidly evolved a visually evident low level circulation 20 seconds into the video. On the 4th of July, the disturbance quickly strengthened which was visually identified by an explosion of deep convective clouds around the center at around 40 seconds. Soon after that time, maximum sustained winds close to the low level circulation center neared 90 km/h, upgrading the storm’s classification to a strong tropical cyclone. By the 5th of July, the storm’s maximum sustained winds increased sufficiently such that it became designated a typhoon with a distinct eye. From there, the tropical cyclone continued to strengthen and was upgraded to a severe typhoon with maximum sustained winds of 155 km/h. At 1:25 in the video, you can clearly identify spiral rain bands as well as gravity waves radiating outward from the center of the severe typhoon. Nepartak continued to intensify in strength and ultimately reached super typhoon with 230 km/h maximum sustained winds near its center by July 6th at around 1:35. Though, not shown in the video, the super typhoon made landfall in Taiwan on July 8th, where it began to weaken and has since become a remnant low pressure area in Jiangxi, China. To learn more about other high-impact weather events from across the Western Pacific Ocean, be sure to click here!
@Meteorologist Jordan Rabinowitz
DISCUSSION: Over the last 72 to 96 hours, as Tropical Storm Nepartak underwent several periods of rapid intensification, truly phenomenal inner-core structual detail took shape fairly quickly. As this tropical cyclone underwent that very rapid intensification, the associated pressure gradient developing within the storm was so intense that internal atmospheric features known as gravity waves began to emerge and radiate outward from the center of Nepartak. Gravity waves tend to form within rapidly intensifying tropical cyclones as a consequence of localized elevated instability which forces the anti-cyclonically rotating cloud structure to move outward from the center and is observed as "ripples moving away from the center of storm." The presence of these gravity waves are a strong indication of the brute force which has been associated with this very powerful tropical cyclone. Before videos and images begin to come in from world news networks, the entire GWCC team sends our thoughts and prayers out to the people of Taiwan and hopefully people were able to take the necessary precautions ahead of this incredibly dangerous storm! If you or someone you know lives in any of the more densely populated cities of Eastern China, urge them to make their final preparations now since this typhoon will continues to remain to be a very dangerous threat to many parts of Eastern China over the next few days! To learn more about other high-impact weather events from across the Western Pacific Ocean, be sure to click here!
DISCUSSION: A slowly-weakening Super Typhoon Nepartak continues his impact both eastern and central portions of Taiwan this afternoon and evening (local time). However, the dangerous combination of heavy rainfall, strong winds, and violent storm surge along the eastern-facing coastlines of Taiwan will combine to create life-threatening conditions throughout the country. Of particular concern, with the heavy rainfall, is the higher probability and increasing likelihood of landslides and/or mudslides as heavy rainfall continues to weaken the surface and sub-surface soil along and on top of mountainsides. Although the storm is currently beginning to slowly weaken (as previously mentioned), the storm is still at super typhoon status with maximum sustained wind speeds at or just above 150 mph with gusts up to 185 mph! Moreover, note how in the image below (courtesy of the NOAA Satellite and Information Service) you can clearly see the gorgeous symmetry in the deepest convective parts of the inner-circulation of this powerful tropical cyclone. Thus, this is a very dangerous and serious situation that continues to threaten the entire nation of Taiwan and will go on to move off to the west and then northwest before impacting portions of Eastern China where life-threatening flooding and strong winds will bring life-threatening conditions as well. To learn more about this as well as other high-impact weather events from across the Western Pacific Ocean, be sure to click here!
SUPER TYPHOON NEPARTAK THREATENS TAIWAN AND CHINA IN THE COMING DAYS! (credit: CIMSS and Earth)7/7/2016
DISCUSSION: Over the last 24 to 36 hours as Typhoon Nepartak quickly strengthened from a fairly strong typhoon to what is now a ferocious Super Typhoon (or the equivalent of a Category 5 hurricane). As this storm continues on its current track, it will soon bring a significant threat to both lives and property across both Taiwan as well as Eastern China as it storm continues heading west to west-northwest at between approximately 20 and 30 MPH. As Super Typhoon closes in on Taiwan, the initial impacts being felt along the eastern-facing shores will be increased wave action and initial outer rain bands moving through with some occasional gusty winds as the center of Nepartak continues to get closer with time. The main impacts prior to and during landfall from this intense tropical cyclone will likely be a massive storm surge, strong (damaging) winds, heavy rainfall, etc. Now how in the upper graphic linked below, you can see the near-perfect symmetry associated with Super Typhoon Nepartak as it approached and now has maintained an intensity defined by maximum sustained winds of 160 MPH with gusts up to 195 MPH! The lower graphic shows the approximate expected future track of Nepartak as it heads westward over the next few days! If someone you know is in the path of the storm, make sure they understand that the time to prepare is NOW! For future updates on this storm and other high-impact weather from across the Western Pacific Ocean, be sure to click here!
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