How 2 Tornadoes Helped Initiate Severe Weather Forecasting in the U.S. (Credit: The Weather Channel)5/25/2019  DISCUSSION: In the early 20th century, official tornado warnings were not allowed in the U.S. because the Weather Bureau (precursor to today’s National Weather Service) didn’t want to cause panic based on low-confidence forecasts (given our limited understanding of tornadoes). However, two tornadoes struck Tinker Air Force Base (AFB) in Oklahoma in March 1948 while two prominent Air Force meteorologists (Major Ernest Fawbush and Captain Robert Miller; pictured above) were stationed there that would begin to change that.
Initially, there was no mention of thunderstorms in the forecast for the evening of 20 March 1948. Later that evening, reports came in of a tornado that had damaged an airport to the southwest of Tinker AFB and was moving to the northeast toward Tinker. Unfortunately, those reports came in too late to warn and prepare the AFB. The result was $10 million in damages including the destruction of 52 aircraft. After this event, a study was put together to determine if better severe storm forecasts could be issued to prevent such damage in the future. Fawbush and Miller identified several large-scale conditions that tended to precede the formation of tornadoes and observed these conditions form again five days later on 25 March. The two base meteorologists decided to issue a forecast similar to today’s tornado watch. This forecast was a success when a second tornado in five days struck Tinker. This tornado still caused $6 million in damage, but there were no injuries likely due to the base preparations that were enacted after the forecast was issued. According to information from Tinker AFB, 89% of the tornado forecasts issued by Fawbush and Miller verified, which is pretty incredible given the rudimentary observing system and infancy of severe weather science at that time relative to today’s tools and understanding. This success led to the development of the Severe Weather Unit of the Weather Bureau in 1952 which is the precursor to today’s Storm Prediction Center. Essentially, two tornadoes that occurred in 1948 prompted two Air Force meteorologists to study the conditions under which tornadoes form and issue the first official tornado forecast. This successful forecast and subsequent successful ones helped spawn the severe weather forecasting enterprise that currently exists in the U.S. and which has undoubtedly helped save countless lives. To learn more about other past historic weather and science events from around the world, be sure to click here! ©2019 Meteorologist Dr. Ken Leppert II
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July 4 Snowfall in Minnesota: Fact or Fiction? (Credit: National Weather Service Archives)4/30/2019 Winter in the United States is an interesting topic. In the South, winter lasts for maybe a month, and then it’s gone; however, in the Northwest, Midwest, and Northeast, that is a completely different story. Most people associate winter beginning in November and ending around mid-April. Now depending upon how the trough and ridge are set up for the season will depend on how long winter lasts. Before going further, troughs and ridges are a part of the jet stream over North America. When there is a valley in the flow, that is a trough. Troughs are normally associated with a low-pressure while ridges (the hills in the wave) are associated with high-pressure. During the summer, the jet stream becomes zonal over the mid-latitudes and during the fall and into the spring, the jet stream develops wave-like patterns. With that being said, typically by May the flow becomes zonal as spring is coming to an end. This is why snow is unlikely past this point because there aren’t any troughs to bring that arctic air further south to cause air masses to clash which inevitably leads to snowstorm development. So, while it isn’t necessarily common, it isn’t a rarity to have a few outlier snowfalls that can continue into May for some. When delving deeper into this topic, the question came to mind, “How late in the year has there been a recorded snowfall?” After spending some time on researching this, there was an article about many people reporting snowfall on July 4 in 2008, but the article was vague if it occurred or not. Thankfully, XMACIS (NCDC) is a very useful tool when trying to find out any kind of climatological data. From what was found, there was evidence that there was 16” of snowfall recorded at a COOP station in Pelican Rapids, MN on this day. It still sounded very odd to not have come across actual news reports of this day, as this would be quite a headliner to receive 16” of snow in early July in the United States, even if it is bordering Canada. When checking out previous surface maps from this day from the National Weather Service Archives and SPC Outlooks, there was nothing to back this statement up. Looking at the event, the low-pressure system/cold front was too far south to have an impact in Minnesota this day. Going back a few days to when the cold front was passing through the area, on July 2, the surface maps still failed to support that the air mass behind the cold front was cold enough to cause wintry precipitation on this day (let alone on Independence Day). The images above support this thesis by showing temperatures throughout the country, including behind the front.   Minimum temperatures on July 2nd, 2008 prove to be entirely too warm to support snowfall in the coming days. The average maximum temperature was in the 80s, while the minimum temperature was in the 60s, and behind the front was 50s. Even if there was a significant polar vortex moving through that area on the 4th, the soil/ground temperatures would be entirely too high to support any accumulation.
Unfortunately, it appears that the rumor of Minnesota receiving 16” of snowfall on July 4 has been squashed. The latest recorded snowfall event was May 2, 2013 where the northern parts of the state received between 1-2”. Although, that doesn’t rule out that this could happen within the next few years as the troughs over the last couple winters have been pushing further south than normal. To learn more about other interesting tropical cyclone topics and events from around the world, click www.globalweatherclimatecenter.com/weather-history-topics. ©2019 Weather Forecaster Ashley Lennard  DISCUSSION: Late January and early February of this year brought an outbreak of frigid arctic air to a large portion of the U.S. with temperatures in the north-central portion of the U.S. the coldest that they have been in over 20 years. Specifically, the coldest temperature measured this year occurred at Cotton, Minnesota of -56F on 27 and again on the 31 January. Including these temperatures this year, temperatures between -55 and -59F have been officially recorded 34 times in our ~150-year observation record over the continental U. S. (there are additional unofficial and/or unverified temperatures that have been measured below -55F). Given that we are past the climatologically coldest part of the year, this current outbreak of unseasonably cold air across the U. S. probably won't set any new record cold temperatures for the year.
For someone who lives in Louisiana, -56F is unimaginably cold. But, even colder temperatures have been recorded in the lower 48 states of the U. S. The map above shows the locations of the 15 official temperatures that have been measured at or below -60F. For the dates when these all occurred, please click here. Of particular note is the coldest temperature ever recorded in the continental U. S. of -69.7F on 20 January 1954 at Rogers Pass, Montana. This was so cold that the indicator of minimum temperature along with the fluid in the thermometer actually retreated into the bulb of the thermometer. The station that recorded this value existed in that location for only a short time from 1 May 1953 to 28 June 1956. It was installed next to a new mine which turned out to not be very productive. So, the mine and observation station were shuttered after only a short time. In order to achieve such an extreme temperature, conditions have to be just right. Otherwise, such a temperature would occur more often. Indeed, the weather conditions at Rogers Pass the night/morning of 20 January 1954 were ideal for generating extreme cold. In particular, there was fresh snow on the ground, a dry, cold air mass in place, no clouds, and no wind, all conditions very conducive to radiational cooling. In addition, the station was located in a depression allowing the coldest air to sink toward the station. Despite these conditions, and as is typically the case for record observations, this particular observation underwent a robust verification process by the Weather Bureau (precursor to today's National Weather Service). For example, the instrument was tested to make sure it was working correctly and the measurement was checked for consistency with other nearby stations. The above is a small glimpse into the coldest temperatures recorded in the continental U. S. and a little bit of the story surrounding the record coldest temperature. I suppose one take away from this is that no matter how cold it gets wherever you are in the lower 48 states of the U. S., it could always be worse (i.e., colder). To learn more about other past historic weather and science events from around the world, be sure to click here! ©2019 Meteorologist Dr. Ken Leppert II  Discussion: As the Midwestern United States begins to warm up, 30 years ago much of Alaska was following suit in what was a brutal end to the month of January. During the latter half of January 1989, temperatures across the interior portions of the state were reported as low as the negative mid-70s degrees Fahrenheit, which is shy of the record low of negative 80 degrees Fahrenheit in the state, but nonetheless an impressive and dangerous feat. Wind chills were even worse as an example below will illustrate. During this cold air outbreak, the highest pressure ever documented in North America (at the time) was recorded on January 31, 1989 in eastern Alaska at Northway. The pressure read 1078 mb (a reanalysis image shows the high pressure in red situated over Alaska). To put this in perspective, Siberia, where the highest pressures on Earth are typically recorded has maxed out in the mid 1080 mb range.  The above image was taken from Iowa State’s ASOS archive site. This is an observation from Cantwell, Alaska on January 28th, 1989. Notice the strong north/northeasterly winds with the temperature -43 degrees Fahrenheit making for treacherous wind chills.  What was the setup for this cold outbreak? High pressure leaked into Alaska from Siberia and the Beaufort Sea, locking cold air in place for about two weeks. This, along with a strong surface low pressure system (cool colors) to the south and a bit east of Alaska during the 28th created a difference in pressure which lead to a strong and persistent northerly to northeasterly wind (surface pattern and setup featured above). The observation above from PATW outlines what this particular day (the 28th) was like in central Alaska. To put this in perspective, a temperature of -43 degrees Fahrenheit and winds gusting up to 40 knots correlates to a treacherous wind chill of around -91 degrees Fahrenheit based on the National Weather Service Wind Chill Temperature calculator.  The last image shows the averaged 500 mb height anomalies across the region from the two-week period between January 17th to January 31st of 1989. A huge negative anomaly, signifying the polar vortex, has parked itself right over Alaska and areas to the north keeping the brutal and long-lasting cold air across much of the state. This was an impressive cold stretch, even for Alaska’s standards.
Be sure to stay tuned to GWCC for more interesting historical weather here! ©2018 Meteorologist Joe DeLizio Sources: https://www.adn.com/features/article/recalling-frigid-1989-alaska-winter/2011/11/21/  On January 31, 1958, the United States successfully launched the Explorer I satellite. As the country’s first successful satellite, Explorer I effectively marked the beginning of the U.S. Space Age. Additionally, the launch of Explorer I came as a direct response to the Soviet Union’s launching of Sputnik 1 & 2, launching the U.S into what was known as the Space Race. Following the success of Explorer I, the U.S. began developing and launching additional satellites, eventually paving the way for the satellites used in meteorology today.
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