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Weather History Topics
Take A Look Back At Many Different Past Weather Events!

How 2 Tornadoes Helped Initiate Severe Weather Forecasting in the U.S. (Credit: The Weather Channel)

5/25/2019

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DISCUSSION: In the early 20th century, official tornado warnings were not allowed in the U.S. because the Weather Bureau (precursor to today’s National Weather Service) didn’t want to cause panic based on low-confidence forecasts (given our limited understanding of tornadoes).  However, two tornadoes struck Tinker Air Force Base (AFB) in Oklahoma in March 1948 while two prominent Air Force meteorologists (Major Ernest Fawbush and Captain Robert Miller; pictured above) were stationed there that would begin to change that.
 
Initially, there was no mention of thunderstorms in the forecast for the evening of 20 March 1948.  Later that evening, reports came in of a tornado that had damaged an airport to the southwest of Tinker AFB and was moving to the northeast toward Tinker.  Unfortunately, those reports came in too late to warn and prepare the AFB.  The result was $10 million in damages including the destruction of 52 aircraft.
 
After this event, a study was put together to determine if better severe storm forecasts could be issued to prevent such damage in the future. Fawbush and Miller identified several large-scale conditions that tended to precede the formation of tornadoes and observed these conditions form again five days later on 25 March.  The two base meteorologists decided to issue a forecast similar to today’s tornado watch.  This forecast was a success when a second tornado in five days struck Tinker.  This tornado still caused $6 million in damage, but there were no injuries likely due to the base preparations that were enacted after the forecast was issued.
 
According to information from Tinker AFB, 89% of the tornado forecasts issued by Fawbush and Miller verified, which is pretty incredible given the rudimentary observing system and infancy of severe weather science at that time relative to today’s tools and understanding.  This success led to the development of the Severe Weather Unit of the Weather Bureau in 1952 which is the precursor to today’s Storm Prediction Center.
 
Essentially, two tornadoes that occurred in 1948 prompted two Air Force meteorologists to study the conditions under which tornadoes form and issue the first official tornado forecast.  This successful forecast and subsequent successful ones helped spawn the severe weather forecasting enterprise that currently exists in the U.S. and which has undoubtedly helped save countless lives.

To learn more about other past historic weather and science events from around the world, be sure to click here!
 
©2019 Meteorologist Dr. Ken Leppert II
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July 4 Snowfall in Minnesota: Fact or Fiction? (Credit: National Weather Service Archives)

4/30/2019

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​Winter in the United States is an interesting topic. In the South, winter lasts for maybe a month, and then it’s gone; however, in the Northwest, Midwest, and Northeast, that is a completely different story. Most people associate winter beginning in November and ending around mid-April. Now depending upon how the trough and ridge are set up for the season will depend on how long winter lasts.

Before going further, troughs and ridges are a part of the jet stream over North America. When there is a valley in the flow, that is a trough. Troughs are normally associated with a low-pressure while ridges (the hills in the wave) are associated with high-pressure. During the summer, the jet stream becomes zonal over the mid-latitudes and during the fall and into the spring, the jet stream develops wave-like patterns. With that being said, typically by May the flow becomes zonal as spring is coming to an end. This is why snow is unlikely past this point because there aren’t any troughs to bring that arctic air further south to cause air masses to clash which inevitably leads to snowstorm development. So, while it isn’t necessarily common, it isn’t a rarity to have a few outlier snowfalls that can continue into May for some.

When delving deeper into this topic, the question came to mind, “How late in the year has there been a recorded snowfall?” After spending some time on researching this, there was an article about many people reporting snowfall on July 4 in 2008, but the article was vague if it occurred or not. Thankfully, XMACIS (NCDC) is a very useful tool when trying to find out any kind of climatological data. From what was found, there was evidence that there was 16” of snowfall recorded at a COOP station in Pelican Rapids, MN on this day.

It still sounded very odd to not have come across actual news reports of this day, as this would be quite a headliner to receive 16” of snow in early July in the United States, even if it is bordering Canada. When checking out previous surface maps from this day from the National Weather Service Archives and SPC Outlooks, there was nothing to back this statement up.
 
Looking at the event, the low-pressure system/cold front was too far south to have an impact in Minnesota this day. Going back a few days to when the cold front was passing through the area, on July 2, the surface maps still failed to support that the air mass behind the cold front was cold enough to cause wintry precipitation on this day (let alone on Independence Day). The images above support this thesis by showing temperatures throughout the country, including behind the front.

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Minimum temperatures on July 2nd, 2008 prove to be entirely too warm to support snowfall in the coming days. The average maximum temperature was in the 80s, while the minimum temperature was in the 60s, and behind the front was 50s. Even if there was a significant polar vortex moving through that area on the 4th, the soil/ground temperatures would be entirely too high to support any accumulation.

Unfortunately, it appears that the rumor of Minnesota receiving 16” of snowfall on July 4 has been squashed. The latest recorded snowfall event was May 2, 2013 where the northern parts of the state received between 1-2”. Although, that doesn’t rule out that this could happen within the next few years as the troughs over the last couple winters have been pushing further south than normal.

To learn more about other interesting tropical cyclone topics and events from around the world, click www.globalweatherclimatecenter.com/weather-history-topics.

©2019 Weather Forecaster Ashley Lennard
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Revisiting the Coldest Temperatures Ever Recorded in the Continental U. S. (credit: Weather Underground)

3/5/2019

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DISCUSSION: Late January and early February of this year brought an outbreak of frigid arctic air to a large portion of the U.S. with temperatures in the north-central portion of the U.S. the coldest that they have been in over 20 years.  Specifically, the coldest temperature measured this year occurred at Cotton, Minnesota of -56F on 27 and again on the 31 January.  Including these temperatures this year, temperatures between -55 and -59F have been officially recorded 34 times in our ~150-year observation record over the continental U. S. (there are additional unofficial and/or unverified temperatures that have been measured below -55F).  Given that we are past the climatologically coldest part of the year, this current outbreak of unseasonably cold air across the U. S. probably won't set any new record cold temperatures for the year.

For someone who lives in Louisiana, -56F is unimaginably cold.  But, even colder temperatures have been recorded in the lower 48 states of the U. S.  The map above shows the locations of the 15 official temperatures that have been measured at or below -60F.  For the dates when these all occurred, please click here.

Of particular note is the coldest temperature ever recorded in the continental U. S. of -69.7F on 20 January 1954 at Rogers Pass, Montana.  This was so cold that the indicator of minimum temperature along with the fluid in the thermometer actually retreated into the bulb of the thermometer.  The station that recorded this value existed in that location for only a short time from 1 May 1953 to 28 June 1956.  It was installed next to a new mine which turned out to not be very productive.  So, the mine and observation station were shuttered after only a short time.  In order to achieve such an extreme temperature, conditions have to be just right.  Otherwise, such a temperature would occur more often.  Indeed, the weather conditions at Rogers Pass the night/morning of 20 January 1954 were ideal for generating extreme cold.  In particular, there was fresh snow on the ground, a dry, cold air mass in place, no clouds, and no wind, all conditions very conducive to radiational cooling.  In addition, the station was located in a depression allowing the coldest air to sink toward the station.  Despite these conditions, and as is typically the case for record observations, this particular observation underwent a robust verification process by the Weather Bureau (precursor to today's National Weather Service).  For example, the instrument was tested to make sure it was working correctly and the measurement was checked for consistency with other nearby stations.

The above is a small glimpse into the coldest temperatures recorded in the continental U. S. and a little bit of the story surrounding the record coldest temperature.  I suppose one take away from this is that no matter how cold it gets wherever you are in the lower 48 states of the U. S., it could always be worse (i.e., colder).

To learn more about other past historic weather and science events from around the world, be sure to click here!
 
©2019 Meteorologist Dr. Ken Leppert II
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The Frigid January of 1989 in Alaska (Credit: NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis, Anchorage Daily News, NWS, Iowa State)

2/1/2019

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Discussion: As the Midwestern United States begins to warm up, 30 years ago much of Alaska was following suit in what was a brutal end to the month of January.

During the latter half of January 1989, temperatures across the interior portions of the state were reported as low as the negative mid-70s degrees Fahrenheit, which is shy of the record low of negative 80 degrees Fahrenheit in the state, but nonetheless an impressive and dangerous feat. Wind chills were even worse as an example below will illustrate. During this cold air outbreak, the highest pressure ever documented in North America (at the time) was recorded on January 31, 1989 in eastern Alaska at Northway. The pressure read 1078 mb (a reanalysis image shows the high pressure in red situated over Alaska). To put this in perspective, Siberia, where the highest pressures on Earth are typically recorded has maxed out in the mid 1080 mb range.  
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​The above image was taken from Iowa State’s ASOS archive site. This is an observation from Cantwell, Alaska on January 28th, 1989. Notice the strong north/northeasterly winds with the temperature -43 degrees Fahrenheit making for treacherous wind chills.

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​What was the setup for this cold outbreak? High pressure leaked into Alaska from Siberia and the Beaufort Sea, locking cold air in place for about two weeks. This, along with a strong surface low pressure system (cool colors) to the south and a bit east of Alaska during the 28th created a difference in pressure which lead to a strong and persistent northerly to northeasterly wind (surface pattern and setup featured above). The observation above from PATW outlines what this particular day (the 28th) was like in central Alaska. To put this in perspective, a temperature of -43 degrees Fahrenheit and winds gusting up to 40 knots correlates to a treacherous wind chill of around -91 degrees Fahrenheit based on the National Weather Service Wind Chill Temperature calculator. 
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The last image shows the averaged 500 mb height anomalies across the region from the two-week period between January 17th to January 31st of 1989. A huge negative anomaly, signifying the polar vortex, has parked itself right over Alaska and areas to the north keeping the brutal and long-lasting cold air across much of the state. This was an impressive cold stretch, even for Alaska’s standards.   
 
Be sure to stay tuned to GWCC for more interesting historical weather here!

©2018 Meteorologist Joe DeLizio

Sources:

https://www.adn.com/features/article/recalling-frigid-1989-alaska-winter/2011/11/21/
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Looking Back On The Explorer I Launch of 1958 (Credit:NASA)

1/31/2019

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On January 31, 1958, the United States successfully launched the Explorer I satellite. As the country’s first successful satellite, Explorer I effectively marked the beginning of the U.S. Space Age.  Additionally, the launch of Explorer I came as a direct response to the Soviet Union’s launching of Sputnik 1 & 2, launching the U.S into what was known as the Space Race.  Following the success of Explorer I, the U.S. began developing and launching additional satellites, eventually paving the way for the satellites used in meteorology today.
In October of 1957, the Soviet Union successfully launched Sputnik I, prompting the United States to quickly develop a satellite in response.  The Jet Propulsion Laboratory was given the task of designing and building a satellite that would serve as the payload for the U.S. Army Ballistic Missile Agency’s Jupiter C rocket.  On the Explorer I satellite was a cosmic ray detector which was designed with the purpose of measuring the radiation environment in Earth’s orbit.  Following the success of this launch, additional Explorer satellites were launched, some being successful launches and some not.  Eventually, satellites such as Explorer VI and Explorer VII included weather related experiments. 
On February 2, 1959, roughly a year after the successful launch of Explorer I, the first weather satellite, Vanguard 2, was launched. However, this satellite was not considered to be a major success as the poor axis of rotation coupled with the elliptical orbit limited the amount of useful data collected.  The following year on April 1, 1960, the first successful weather satellite, TIROS-1, was launched.  In the years since then, numerous different weather satellites have been launched, leading up to the GOES satellites currently used in meteorology.  All of these satellites were made possible due to that first successful satellite launch on this day in 1958.

To learn more about other past historic weather and science events from around the world, be sure to click here!

 
©2019 Meteorologist Stephanie Edwards

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Wet Weather in 2018 Makes Record-Breaking History (Credit:  The Washington Post, NOAA, WMO, The Weather Channel, GlobalChange.gov, xmACIS2, Live Science)

12/29/2018

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Image:  Credit The Washington Post
Discussion:  2018 has been another active weather year featuring more extreme droughts, wildfires, hurricanes, extreme flooding events, and tornadoes. As 2018 comes to a close, the topic of discussion is how many cities broke their record for total precipitation this calendar year. Many are wondering if the wet weather will continue and for just how long.
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Image:  NOAA GOES GeoColor satellite image taken on December 15, 2018
Hurricane Florence dumped 24.06” of rain in Wilmington, North Carolina which contributed to its three-digit total precipitation record of 101.45” for 2018. More cities that have already set records include Wilmington, NC at 101.45”, Asheville, NC at 75.00”, Washington, D.C. at 64.78”, Baltimore, MD at 70.05”, Green Bay, WI at 38.68”, and Mason City, IA at 49.98”. Several cities still have a shot of setting a new record before the ringing in the New Year. Pittsburgh, PA currently sits at 56.98”and its record is 57.38”, Raleigh, NC sits at 58.54” and its record is 59.10”, and Jackson, TN sits at 73.49”and its record is 74.76”. All of these stats were collected from xmACIS2on December 28, 2018. 
 
So just what factors contributed to all of the rain in 2018? The Washington Postexplained that, “The extreme rainfall in the Mid-Atlantic has stemmed from a weather pattern unleashing a parade of storms through the region since May. Except for brief pauses in the first half of Julyand this month, it has seldom relented. The jet stream, which is the high-altitude air current along which storms track, has persistently directed moisture-packed storms through the region”. The Weather Channelfurther explained that an upper-level weather pattern has been another driving factor for wetter weather east of the Rockies. Furthermore, the federal government’s Fourth National Climate Assessment, released in November 2018, stated that “Extreme precipitation, one of the controlling factors in flood statistics, is observed to have generally increased and is projected to continue to do so across the United States in a warming atmosphere.”

Images:  WMO estimated ENSO probabilities for December 2018-February 2019, The Weather Channel Precipitation Forecast adapted from NOAA’s January-March 2019 Precipitation Outlook, NOAA’s January-March 2019 Temperature Outlook
According to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), we are going into 2019 with a 75-80% chance for a weak El Niñoby February 2019. The National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is also predicting a weak El Niño in its 2018-19 Winter Outlook. An El Niño is the warm phase of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). If ENSO verifies, three-quarters of the U.S. will most likely experience warmer than average, as opposed to colder than average, winter temperatures. Additionally, wet weather will continue to dominate the southern states. So, keep your umbrella handy.
 
To learn about more historical weather events, click here.
 
© 2018 Meteorologist Amber Liggett

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Weather History Revisits the Boxing Day Blizzard of 2010 (Credit: Erik Taylor and National Weather Service- New York WFO)

12/26/2018

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On this day in #weather history 8 years ago the #BoxingDay #Blizzard. Over a foot of #snow from @TownofOceanCity north to #NYC. Only 1-3" amounts in #Baltimore. #mdwx Do you remember? pic.twitter.com/qt7qZLQXfb

— Erik Taylor (@WeatherErik) December 27, 2018
DISCUSSION: December through February is considered as the official meteorological winter season, so it is of no surprise that snow is the predominant precipitation type with winter weather systems. On this date back in 2010, most of the mid-Atlantic and New England states were dealing with the brunt of a rather powerful winter storm. Heavy blowing and drifting snow affected much of New Jersey, New York, and points north of that as the system rapidly made its way off shore and away from the U.S. mainland. The synoptic setup for this storm system was centered on the rapid deepening of a low pressure system that originally formed on the lee side of the Rocky Mountain range which quickly tracked eastward across the central Plains and southeast U.S. By late evening on the 26th, an upper-level jet streak maximum of near 150 kts (175 mph) was observed over northwestern Florida while significant pressure height falls were observed over the northeast. Moisture from the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico was dragged northward along the poleward flank of the trough and observed radiosonde (weather balloon) data showed that the atmosphere through 600 hPa was at near-full saturation. This high amount of low-to-mid-level moisture, coupled with the already present favorable frontogenesis dynamics, set the stage for a significant snowfall event while the system tracked north and east through the mid-Atlantic and New England states.
 
The result was significant snowfall totals ranging from 20-30” with higher totals primarily along the New York City-New Jersey-Hudson Valley corridor. Heavy convective snow bands trained over the same areas for many consecutive hours, compounding on the snow already on the ground. In addition, a very tight pressure gradient was focused over much of the mid-Atlantic as the low pressure system advanced and upper-level winds  sustained winds of 25 to 40 mph with higher gusts at the surface. which led to hazardous conditions for travel and infrastructure. Storms of this nature can occur during this time of year so it is always important to be vigilant to developing winter weather systems and alert to the latest forecasts from local weather forecast offices and the Weather Prediction Center.
 
To learn more about other past historic weather events from around the world, click here!
 
© 2018 Meteorologist Brian Matilla
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The History and Relevance of the Doppler Effect          (Credit: Physics Today)

12/1/2018

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DISCUSSION: Over the last two centuries, there is little to no doubt that atmospheric science observational and forecasting capabilities have come quite a long way. One of the premiere technologies which is associated with how far atmospheric science over the past 200 + years is the invention of the world-famous Doppler Radar technology which is based upon the fundamental principle known as the Doppler Effect. The so-called “Doppler Effect” which is what the modern Doppler Radar observational platform is based upon was invented by Christian Doppler. This was a historic discovery during the earlier part of the 19th century since this was a discovery which would go on to forever change the course of history.

Attached below is an excerpt which is from a corresponding Physics Today article: “Born on 29 November 1803 in Salzburg, Austria, physicist Christian Doppler proposed the phenomenon that enables astronomers to determine the velocity of distant objects. He studied mathematics at the Vienna Polytechnic Institute and math, mechanics, and astronomy at the University of Vienna. Doppler had shaky health throughout his life, and he had trouble securing a stable professorship. Nonetheless he produced several important papers, none more influential than “On the colored light of the double stars and certain other stars of the heavens” in 1842. He theorized that the colors of two stars orbiting each other would appear to change slightly, due to one star moving away from the observer and the other moving closer. More generally, Doppler proposed that the apparent frequency of light or sound waves emanating from an object changes depending on the object’s motion toward or away from the observer. Scientists in many fields, particularly astronomy, depend on the Doppler effect. Stars and galaxies moving away from Earth shift toward the red part of the color spectrum (red-shifted), while astronomical objects moving toward Earth are blue-shifted. Scientists analyzing the distance to and motion of stars and galaxies have determined that the universe is expanding at an ever-faster rate.”

Upon discovering the Doppler Effect concept which is described in the excerpt attached above, this transformed the way in which mankind was able to interpret how sound and velocity works in the context of time and space in order to anticipate the movement of hydrometeors. Therefore, this is the concept which instigated the development of the modernized Doppler Radar which uses the Doppler Effect to produce velocity data to project and predict the speed and directional movement of different types of objects from a given distance.
 
To learn more about other past historic weather history topics from around the world, be sure to click here!

© 2018 Meteorologist Jordan Rabinowitz

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A look back on a monstrous late season tornado outbreak

11/17/2018

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On this day in 2013, an unordinary late season tornado outbreak occurred across Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Kentucky and Ohio. This particular tornado outbreak was the deadliest and costliest in Illinois to occur in the month of November and the fourth largest in recorded Illinois state history. This event resulted in 73 tornadoes, with reports of over 100 injuries and 11 fatalities.


Forecasts for the development of this event had been well anticipated, with initial forecasts led by the NOAA Storm Prediction Center five days in advanced. These storms were associated with a strong trough in the upper levels of the atmosphere, as well as having forecasts of a potent mid-level jet moving across the Mississippi River valley. The pressure gradient force, or in other words the force which results when there is a difference in pressure across a surface, tends to bring stronger winds in November compared to the summer or spring months. This leads to greater wind shear. The morning of the outbreak showed there was a particularly strong vertical wind shear, providing the perfect setup for long-tracked tornadoes to occur.

Two of the tornadoes, both in Illinois, were rated EF4 on the Enhanced Fujita Scale. These were the strongest documented tornadoes during the outbreak resulting in five deaths. In addition to tornadoes the system also produced baseball sized hail peaking at 4.00 in (10.2 cm) in diameter in Bloomington, Illinois, as well as damaging winds estimated as strong as 100 mph (160 km/h) in three separate locations. There were also seven tornadoes rated EF3, 23 tornadoes rated EF2, 28 tornadoes rated EF1 and 13 tornadoes rated EF0.
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Tornadic events, especially of this magnitude, are an uncommon occurrence in the month of November. Normally in late autumn and into winter there is not sufficient warmth and moisture for thunderstorm development. However, in this case, a low pressure system across the plains had pushed tropical warmth and moisture northward from the Gulf of Mexico for nearly two days. This moisture was akin to that typically observed during summertime, given dew point temperatures in the mid to upper 60’s. Combine this with air temperatures of around 70° F (21° C) and these combined factors aided in the generation of instability to get thunderstorms to form. The warmth combined with the high wind shear was the perfect setup for these supercell storms to develop. This is just a reminder that people should stay vigilant throughout the entire year because tornadoes can happen at pretty much any time especially throughout the midwestern portion of the United States.

To learn more about other past historic weather events from around the world, be sure to click here! 


© 2018 Weather Forecaster Michael Ames 
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Reflecting on the 5th Anniversary of the Landfall of Super Typhoon Haiyan (Credit: MTSAT Imagery)

11/7/2018

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Super Typhoon Haiyan 5 years ago today in the #Philippines, over 6K died. When I left the US Haiyan was just a tropical storm: https://t.co/4oNegSsA8s

— Jim Edds (@ExtremeStorms) November 8, 2018
DISCUSSION: It goes without saying that 5 years ago today there was history made over in parts of the eastern and central and eastern Philippines. To be more precise, 5 years ago today, the eastern and central Philippines bore witness to the full force of Super Typhoon Haiyan. Super Typhoon Haiyan was an intense tropical cyclone which formed in early November of 2013.  This powerful tropical cyclone was particularly intimidating since this storm had nearly a perfectly symmetric structure associated with it right up to the point of landfall over in the eastern Philippines. To be more precise, this tropical cyclone had developed sufficiently clear characteristics to allow it to be referred to as an annular tropical cyclone. An annular tropical cyclone is a tropical cyclone which has a near-perfect to perfect energy distribution across the entire span of the system from north to south and from east to west.
 
Moreover, Super Typhoon Haiyan was also an incredibly large tropical cyclone which also increased the overall flooding as well as flash flooding threat (i.e., from both heavy rainfall and record-breaking storm surge levels). Having said that, the storm was ultimately quite destructive and unfortunately quite deadly as well in the wake of well over 6,000 people losing their lives during the impacts and aftermath of this powerful tropical cyclone. Thus, it in looking back to Super Typhoon Haiyan, there is absolutely no question whatsoever that this was a storm which will go down in history as one of the worst tropical cyclones of all-time.
 
To learn about just some of the many intimidating details associated with this storm, here is a quote from the article attached below which reflects just a portion of what Super Typhoon Haiyan did. “Super Typhoon Haiyan (locally named Yolanda) made its first landfall at 4:40 a.m. local time (20:40 Universal Time) on November 7. Preliminary reports suggested the storm roared ashore near Guinan (Samar Province), where ground stations recorded sustained winds of 235 kilometers (145 miles) per hour and gusts to 275 kilometers (170 miles) per hour. According to remote sensing data from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center, sustained winds approached 315 kph (195 mph) just three hours before landfall, with gusts to 380 kph (235 mph).”

Attached above is also a first-person perspective on this event from Award-Winning Storyteller and Cameraman Jim Edds from Pensacola, Florida.
 
To learn more about this historic tropical cyclone event, feel free to learn more about it from the NASA Earth Observatory link, which can be found right here!

© 2018 Meteorologist Jordan Rabinowitz

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