Looking Back at the Warmest Halloween On-Record Across the U.S.!!! (credit: Alaska Climate Info.)10/31/2016  DISCUSSION: As many people experienced an abundantly warm Halloween throughout the course of today, it is also neat to see what Halloween was like across the country back in October 1950. As you can see in the graphic above, that climatologically crisp Fall day ended up being anything but that as temperatures soared to more than 10 standard anomalies above normal across nearly the entire northern Plains states. Moreover, surrounding parts of the contiguous United States also saw temperatures reach above-normal values with temperature anomalies of between 3 and 7 units being experienced across an even larger area across parts of the southwestern, south-central, southeastern, and northeastern United States. Certainly was a day that went down in dramatic fashion as far as the history books are concerned!
To learn more about other past historic weather events from around the world, be sure to click here! ~Meteorologist Jordan Rabinowitz
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Looking Back at the Perfect Storm of October 1991! (credit: TWC Meteorologist Kait Parker)10/31/2016  DISCUSSION: As Halloween 2016 dawns on people all over the world, we are reminded of the ferocity of the "Perfect Storm" which rapidly developed during the last couple of days of October 1991. That being said, the impacts from this powerful hybrid-type low pressure system were pronounced based on the fact that many people lost their homes (and in some cases their lives). In addition, other consequences of this major event included major coastal flooding and major damage to infrastructure (particularly along the New England coastline). Be sure to watch the brief video summary (attached above) of this event courtesy of Meteorologist Kait Parker from The Weather Channel!
To learn more about other past historic weather events from around the world, be sure to click here! ~Meteorologist Jordan Rabinowitz Reflecting On the Numbers Behind Cyclone o5B! (credit: History.com via This Day in Weather History)10/29/2016  DISCUSSION: It is crazy to think that this was a little 17 years ago today, but nonetheless, back on 28 October 1999 a truly remarkable tropical cyclone which was referred to as Cyclone 05B intensified all the way to the equivalent of a Category 5 hurricane. This powerful tropical cyclone remains to be the strongest tropical cyclone on-record in the North Indian Ocean basin. Cyclone 05B hit the Indian State of Odisha near the city of Bhubaneswar on October 29th which wreaked absolute havoc on the region for a prolonged period of time (i.e., both prior to, during, and after the core circulation moved ashore). An estimated 10,000 people lost their lives as a direct result of this tropical cyclone's impacts along with 1.67 million people were consequently left homeless. Certainly, a tropical cyclone which will forever go down in history and leave a long-lasting impression on the hearts and minds of people across the country of India for many generations to come!
To learn more about other past historic weather events from around the world, be sure to click here! ~Meteorologist Jordan Rabinowitz  DISCUSSION: As far as tropical cyclone records across the Atlantic Ocean are concerned, Hurricane Mitch will go down as one of the more historic tropical cyclones of all time with respect to collective impacts. Just 18 years and three days ago, Hurricane Mitch reached it maximum intensity as a Category 5 hurricane just to the east of the Yucatan Peninsula, Mexico and parts of eastern Central America. Attached below is the collective summary the storm's evolution from a meteorological standpoint for everyone's interests (courtesy of the NWS National Hurricane Center).
"The origins of Mitch can be traced back to a tropical wave that moved across the southern portion of west Africa on 8/9 October. The wave crossed the west coast of Africa on 10 October and progressed across the tropical Atlantic for the next seven days with west-southwesterly upper-level winds preventing significant development. After moving through the eastern Caribbean Sea between the 18th and 19th, satellite pictures showed an organizing cloud pattern over the south-central Caribbean Sea on the 20th. Shower and thunderstorm activity continued to become better organized in the southwest Caribbean Sea as of early on the 21st. The system became a tropical depression at 0000 UTC 22 October, about 360 miles south of Kingston, Jamaica. The depression moved slowly westward and strengthened to a tropical storm later that day, about 225 miles east-southeast of San Andres Island, while moving in a cyclonic loop. By the 23rd, the intensification of Mitch was disrupted by westerly vertical wind shear associated with an upper-level low north-northwest of the tropical cyclone. Later on the 23rd, the upper low weakened, the shear diminished, and Mitch began to strengthen while moving slowly northward. Mitch became a hurricane at 0600 UTC 24 October while located about 255 miles south-southwest of Kingston, Jamaica. Later that day, as it turned toward the west, Mitch began a period of rapid intensification. During a 24 hour period beginning on the afternoon of the 24th, its central pressure dropped 52 mb, dropping it down to 924 mb. With a symmetric, well-established upper-tropospheric outflow pattern evident on satellite imagery, the hurricane continued to strengthen. On the afternoon of the 26th, the central pressure reached a minimum of 905 mb, th while the cyclone was centered about 50 miles southeast of Swan Island. This pressure is the fourth lowest ever measured in an Atlantic hurricane, tied with Hurricane Camille in 1969. This is also the lowest pressure ever observed in an October hurricane in the Atlantic basin. Prior to Mitch, the strongest measured hurricane in the northwest Caribbean was Hurricane Hattie in 1961 with a central pressure of 924 mb. At its peak on the 26th, Mitch’s maximum sustained 1-minute surface winds were estimated to be 155 knots, a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. After passing over Swan Island on 27 October, Mitch began to gradually weaken while moving slowly westward. It then turned southwestward and southward toward the Bay Islands off the coast of Honduras. The center passed very near the island of Guanaja as a category 5 hurricane, although it is unlikely that winds of that strength were experienced on the island. Mitch slowly weakened as its circulation interacted with Honduras. From mid-day on the 27th, to early on the 29th, the central pressure rose 59 mb. The center of the hurricane meandered near the north coast of Honduras from late on the 27th through the 28th, before making landfall during the morning of the 29th about 70 miles east of la Ceiba with estimated surface winds of 70 knots and a minimum central pressure of 987 mb. After making landfall, Mitch moved slowly southward, then southwestward and westward, over Honduras, weakening to a tropical storm by 1800 UTC 29 October, and to a tropical depression by 1800 UTC 31 October. The overall motion was slow, less than 4 knots, for a week. This resulted in a tremendous amount of rainfall, estimated at up to 35 inches, primarily over Honduras and Nicaragua. The heavy rainfall resulted in flash floods and mudslides that killed thousands of people. It is noted that a large east-west mountain range, with peaks approaching 10,000 feet, covers this part of Central America and this terrain likely contributed to the large rainfall totals. Some heavy rains also occurred in other portions of Central America. Although Mitch’s surface circulation center dissipated near the Guatemala/Mexico border on 1 November, the remnant circulation aloft continued to produce locally heavy rainfall over portions of Central America and eastern Mexico for the next couple of days. By the afternoon of 2 November, meteorologists at the Tropical Prediction Center/National Hurricane Center (NHC) Tropical Analysis and Forecast Branch (TAFB), and the Satellite Analysis Branch (SAB) of the National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service began to follow a cloud-system center, the remnants of Mitch, in satellite imagery over the Bay of Campeche. Shower and thunderstorm activity began to increase later on the 2nd. On 3 November, a low-level circulation became evident in the eastern Bay of Campeche. Soon after, advisories were re-initiated on Tropical Storm Mitch located about 130 miles southwest of Merida, Mexico. Mitch moved northeastward and weakened to a depression early on the 4th after it made landfall over the northwestern Yucatan peninsula. The center re-emerged over the south-central Gulf of Mexico by mid-morning on the 4th, and Mitch regained tropical storm strength. The storm began to accelerate northeastward as it became involved with a frontal boundary moving through the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Mitch made landfall on the morning of 5 November in southwest Florida near Naples, with estimated maximum sustained winds of 55 knots. Mitch continued to move rapidly northeastward and by mid-afternoon of the 5th, before transitioning into an extratropical cyclone across the North Atlantic Ocean between the 6th and the 9th. To learn more about other past historic weather events from around the world, be sure to click here! ~Meteorologist Jordan Rabinowitz  DISCUSSION: In looking back on the days leading up to the formation and eventual landfall on Hurricane Patricia back on 23 October 2015, there was true meteorological history in the making which quickly got underway. For starters, it was the fastest major hurricane on-record anywhere in the world to go from a meager tropical depression and/or tropical storm to a Category 5 hurricane and then back to the point of official storm dissipation. Starting on 17 October 2015, a disorganized cluster of thunderstorms began to organize across parts of Central America and by 20 October a blossoming tropical depression reached the status of Tropical Storm Patricia. From there, things evolved fairly rapidly with the transition from Tropical Storm to Major Hurricane status occurring within just 42 hours. Thus, it was quite an intense but short-lived tropical cyclone since it went from birth to dissipation in approximately 96 hour or so which is an incredibly fast evolution for a tropical cyclone which at peak intensity had confirmed maximum sustained wind speeds of 215 mph with higher gusts coupled with a lowest minimum central pressure of 872 mb. This lowest minimum central pressure of 872 mb made it the most intense storm anywhere in the world on-record!
To learn more about other historical weather events from around the world, be sure to click here! ~Meteorologist Jordan Rabinowitz A Day Which Changed Many Lives in South-Central Texas! (credit: NWS Austin-San Antonio, Texas)10/23/2016  DISCUSSION: Looking back a little over 16 years ago today, there was a very memorable rainfall event which unfolded across portions of South-Central Texas. As shown in the graphic above, this occurred under the circumstances of a slow-moving cold front interacting with the mid/upper-level moisture dynamics associated with two separate hurricanes (i.e., Hurricane Madeline and Hurricane Lester). A very interesting and prolific event to say the least! To say that flooding and flash flooding was a problem during the course of this multi-day rainfall event would be a complete understatement.
To learn more about other high-impact weather events from the past, be sure to click here! ~Meteorologist Jordan Rabinowitz Looking Back on A Major Lake Effect Snow Event From 2006! (credit: NWS Buffalo, New York)10/13/2016  DISCUSSION: A few days over 10 years ago today, an epic multi-day lake effect snow storm event unfolded across certain parts of western New York state in and around the Buffalo metropolitan area. As shown in the exact text forecast included below as issued by forecasters who were working the shift(s) leading up to this event at the National Weather Service office (located in Cheektowaga, New York), this event was not very well forecasted due to the inherent difficulties associated with it. First and foremost, the primary difficulty in forecasting this particular lake effect snow event was the fact that this lake effect snow event was seasonably early as far as lake effect snow events are concerned with respect to lake effect snowfall climatology.
Read the text below to get a more detailed insight into the thoughts of the forecasters working at NWS Buffalo prior to, during, and after this prolific lake effect snow event: "Words cannot due justice to the astounding event which opened the 2006-07 season. Not only was it the earliest event by far (two weeks) of the over 120 in the 13- year record of our lake effect archive…but it was the most unique in regards to destruction of trees and power outages…directly because of its out of season factor. Almost a million residents of the Niagara Frontier lost power...some for as long as a week…and tree damage was the worst in memory…especially to the lush vegetation in the many historic parkways and parks in the Buffalo area. The event was not particularly well forecasted…although its extreme parameters were noted all week and even mentioned six days ahead in forecast discussions. The depth of cold air was almost unprecedented for so early in the season and Lake Erie was a mild 62 degrees, three degrees above normal for October 12. Instability levels were dramatic with 850 mb to sfc delta –t’s of 24c or so…inversion levels were simply off the chart at 25k feet with omega and Cape values unprecedented for a lake effect event. The only question...and a big one…was whether the boundary layer could be cold enough to maintain snow with a flow off a 62 degree lake. It was initially assumed that there would just enough moderation for the bulk of this forecasted intense lake effect storm to fall as rain...with perhaps some graupel or wet snow inland…but by Thursday morning (12th) it was becoming marginal…and a Warning was issued early Thursday afternoon for 1-6” of wet snow, specifically because of the fact that most trees were still in full leaf….and the threat of serious damage and associated power outages. The event began with lake effect rain during Thursday morning and midday…and enough cold air became entrained to change over the precipitation to wet snow in the Buffalo area by 3 pm. Still…little accumulation resulted for a few hours, but by 8-9 pm, reports of trees falling and power outages suddenly increased rapidly after 2-3” of snow, which was very wet and weighed down the trees. Conditions only worsened overnight with near constant thunder and lightning for a good 12 hours. Cloud tops reached an incredible 25-30k feet…about double we have previously observed in the worst events…this was directly attributed to the phenomenal uplift over the 62 degree lake. The heaviest snow-band set up across the North Towns Thursday evening…then drifted south to the south Towns around midnight…then lifted slightly to the city and eastern suburbs in the wee hours before lifting north across the North Towns again around daybreak and eventually to Niagara county Friday (13th) morning where it weakened and faded to rain as the dynamic cooling process faded and allowed the boundary layer to moderate. It was apparent that the associated uplift and dynamic cooling was so strong that it overcame any attempt of boundary layer warming from the lake. There even may have been cooling near its edge because of this dynamic cooling as evident by lowering dew points at Cleveland, Erie and Dunkirk early in the event…perhaps a sign of air advecting into the lake-band from the land. Even though plenty of damage resulted already in the first few inches, total snowfall in this event was simply unbelievable. 5 to 8 inches fell in the first phase of the event between 3:00 pm and midnight, but SWE ratio was around 6:1 or so…hence the terrific damage to trees and powerlines. The second phase featured slightly drier snow…maybe 12:1 but it piled up another foot in heaviest area…in just 4 hours or so. The 22.6 inches recorded at the Buffalo airport not only blew away any October record (6” in 1909…only 4 falls of 2” or more in 100 yrs in October)….but was the 6th greatest snowfall ever at any time in Buffalo! The crippling snows extended well across Genesee and Orleans counties, and pushed into extreme southern Niagara county...but there was a sharp cutoff to any damage, which ran along a line from Whitehaven Road on Grand Island to Wheatfield to Medina on the north, Leroy and Bergen on the east, and East Aurora and southern Hamburg on the south. Governor Pataki declared a State Disaster Emergency in Erie, Genesee, Niagara and Orleans counties on Friday October 13. President Bush declared the four counties eligible for disaster assistance on October 24. (FEMA-1655-DR). By the beginning of December 2006, nearly $11 million in disaster grants and low-interest disaster loans were been approved. Over 400,000 National Grid and New York State Electric and Gas (NYSEG) customers lost power Thursday evening. Full restoration of power was not completed until 13 days after the storm with most regions being without power for about 5 days. Most area schools were closed for the entire week following the storm. One death was directly attributed to the storm. In Amherst, a man was clearing snow in his driveway when a tree limb broke off, fell and crushed him. Fourteen other deaths were indirectly storm-related. This number includes four people who died from carbon monoxide poisoning from the improper use of generators and kerosene heaters. Over two hundred were treated for exposure to carbon monoxide. Seventeen were treated for hypothermia. The seasonal timing and pre-conditions of the event only exacerbated the impacts. Only a couple inches of the heavy snow was needed to bring down the still fully leafed trees. In addition, the area had experienced a wet pattern prior to the storm. The wet ground made it easier for tree root systems to fail. Estimates to remove the debris from the storm is pegged at over $150 million. Over three million cubic yards of debris needed to be cleaned up. Local and State Departments of Transportation were not prepared for such an early storm. Most were still in paving mode and had not prepared their equipment to plow snow. The heavy snow also made driving even more difficult. About a hundred mile stretch of the Thruway was closed. Hundreds of motorists were stranded between Pembroke and Angola. Some of these people were stranded for twelve to eighteen hours. Other transportation issues included motorists not being prepared for winter driving and tractor trailers not using the proper fuel mix for the wintry weather. Most areas initiated driving bans and declared States of Emergency early in the onset of the storm." To learn more about other high-impact weather events that have occurred in history, be sure to click here! ~Meteorologist Jordan Rabinowitz |
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