Global Weather & Climate Center
  • Home
  • About
    • GWCC Is
    • Where in the World is GWCC?
    • Contact Us
  • Global Regions
    • Africa
    • Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea
    • Central and Eastern Pacific Ocean
    • Central and South America
    • Europe
    • North America
    • Indian Ocean and Asia
    • Polar Regions
    • South Pacific Ocean and Australia
    • Western Pacific Ocean
  • Weather
    • Applied Meteorology >
      • Air Quality
      • Aviation
      • Droughts
      • Fire Weather
      • Flooding
      • Geosciences
      • Global Environmental Topics
      • Weather Observations
    • Weather Education
    • Weather History
    • Weather Research
    • Weather Safety and Preparedness
    • Severe Weather
    • Social Sciences
    • Space Weather
    • Tropical Cyclones
    • Weather and Health
    • Winter Weather
  • Climate
  • GWCC Global Imagery Archive
  • GWCC Window to the World
    • GOES-16 Live Satellite Imagery Portal
    • GOES-16 ABI Channel Description and Examples
    • GOES-16 ABI Satellite Products
    • GOES-17 Live Satellite Imagery Portal
    • Himawari-8 Live Satellite Imagery Portal
    • Meteosat-11 Live Satellite Imagery Portal
  • Kids Corner
    • Kindergarten to 5th Grade
    • 6th to 12th grade
    • Fun Facts & Weather Trivia
    • GWCC Weather Radar Education
    • GWCC Wheel of Science

Weather Education

Taking a look at the Model Output Statistics (MOS) (Photo Credit: National Weather Service).

9/13/2019

0 Comments

 
Picture
DISCUSSION: The Model Output Statistics (MOS) is the output from models such as the Global Forecasting Systems (GFS) and the North American Model (NAM). MOS is often used to help with forecasting for elements near the surface such as temperature and wind, which are more applicable to civilians. The MOS in the U.S. is sent out multiple times a day with the Localized Aviation MOS Product (LAMP) going out every hour, the GFS MOS every 6 hours, the NAM MOS and the extended GFS MOS every 12 hours. 
The MOS has several advantages compared to other models that are shown graphically. One such advantage is that the MOS is more point-specific to an airport as shown above (KSJC) or at some specific locations including a weather station at Central Park in New York (KNYC) instead of a grid, as is most typical displayed by other models. Another advantage that MOS has compared to other models is that the MOS is able to tell you how low of a cloud ceiling to expect as compared to the model graphics which only shows coverage but not height. Additional advantages are that the MOS is able to give you an indication of the probability of precipitation as well as being able to determine if fog will occur as compared to the model where the graphs are sometimes increasingly difficult to identify both. The output is often used by students and broadcast meteorologists to make forecasts with regards to temperatures, winds, clouds and precipitation.
Let’s look at the elements of the MOScast (MOS Forecast):
DT: Date of the month (in the diagram above: August 19/August 20)
HR: Hour of the specific day in Universal Time Coordinated (UTC) or Greenwich Median Time (GMT) (15)
N/X: Nocturnal minimum temperature and maximum daytime temperature in Fahrenheit (59 77)
TMP: Temperature in Fahrenheit
DPT: Dewpoint in Fahrenheit
CLD: Cloud coverage (no clouds=CL 0 to 2/8 of the sky=FEW 2/8-4/8=SCT 5/8-Almost 8/8=BKN and completely cloudy=OVC)
WDR: Wind Direction at 10 meters above the ground (Multiply by 10 to get direction i.e. 32 is 320°)
WSP: Wind speed in knots (nautical miles per hour) at 10 meters above the ground (1 knot is 1.151 mph)
P06: Probability of Precipitation (percent chance of rain and/or snow) in the 6-hour period ending at that time
P12: Probability of Precipitation in the 12-hour period ending at that time
Q06: The Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (QPF) (amount of precipitation forecasted) in the 6-hour period ending at that time [See Chart below for values]
Q12: The QPF for the 12-hour period ending at that time [See chart below for values]
T06: Probability of thunderstorms the 6-hour period ending at that time
T12: Probability of thunderstorms in the 12-hour period ending at that time
CIG: Cloud ceiling height forecasted (See chart below for values)
VIS: Visibility in miles (See chart below for values)
OBV: Phenomena which would cause obscuration to visibility (See chart below for values).

​​
Picture
However, the MOS does have some disadvantages. Among the major disadvantages is that there is a temperature bias most of the time where the MOS is either too warm or too cold and needs to be adjusted. However, the MOS bias can be calculated and adjusted by comparing the temperatures to the METAR (Meteorological Terminal Air Report) temperatures of the specific location which some websites do such as here. In addition, the MOS goes out only 72 hours in the forecast and is not graphic so it is not an effective tool for forecasting for tropical systems as compared to the GFS which goes out for 384 hours and the NAM which goes for 84.
To find out more about MOS forecasts click here and to see other MOS products click here. To find out more about other educational topics in meteorology click here!'

​©2019 Meteorologist JP Kalb
0 Comments



Leave a Reply.

    Archives

    March 2020
    February 2020
    January 2020
    December 2019
    November 2019
    October 2019
    September 2019
    August 2019
    July 2019
    June 2019
    May 2019
    April 2019
    March 2019
    February 2019
    January 2019
    December 2018
    November 2018
    October 2018
    September 2018
    August 2018
    July 2018
    June 2018
    May 2018
    April 2018
    March 2018
    February 2018
    January 2018
    December 2017
    October 2017
    September 2017
    August 2017
    July 2017
    June 2017
    May 2017
    April 2017
    March 2017
    February 2017
    January 2017
    December 2016
    November 2016
    October 2016
    September 2016


    RSS Feed

© 2022, Global Weather and Climate Center
ALL RIGHTS RESERVED
​Webmaster - Stephen Piechowski
  • Home
  • About
    • GWCC Is
    • Where in the World is GWCC?
    • Contact Us
  • Global Regions
    • Africa
    • Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea
    • Central and Eastern Pacific Ocean
    • Central and South America
    • Europe
    • North America
    • Indian Ocean and Asia
    • Polar Regions
    • South Pacific Ocean and Australia
    • Western Pacific Ocean
  • Weather
    • Applied Meteorology >
      • Air Quality
      • Aviation
      • Droughts
      • Fire Weather
      • Flooding
      • Geosciences
      • Global Environmental Topics
      • Weather Observations
    • Weather Education
    • Weather History
    • Weather Research
    • Weather Safety and Preparedness
    • Severe Weather
    • Social Sciences
    • Space Weather
    • Tropical Cyclones
    • Weather and Health
    • Winter Weather
  • Climate
  • GWCC Global Imagery Archive
  • GWCC Window to the World
    • GOES-16 Live Satellite Imagery Portal
    • GOES-16 ABI Channel Description and Examples
    • GOES-16 ABI Satellite Products
    • GOES-17 Live Satellite Imagery Portal
    • Himawari-8 Live Satellite Imagery Portal
    • Meteosat-11 Live Satellite Imagery Portal
  • Kids Corner
    • Kindergarten to 5th Grade
    • 6th to 12th grade
    • Fun Facts & Weather Trivia
    • GWCC Weather Radar Education
    • GWCC Wheel of Science