DISCUSSION: We are past the climatological peak of the Atlantic hurricane season, and it appears that North America and the Caribbean will get a much needed break from any landfalling tropical cyclones over at least the next week or two. However, the hurricane season is not over. During the peak of the season, storms have a tendency to develop from easterly waves moving off the coast of Africa. However, this time of year easterly waves over the east Atlantic are weakening. Thus, storms have a tendency to spin up in the Caribbean Sea south of Cuba as indicated in the figure above and move northward. Of the 14 hurricanes that have made landfall in the U.S. in October since 1950, 8 of them have made landfall in Florida, many of them in south Florida. So, the key message here is that all people living in hurricane-prone regions need to continue to be vigilant and prepared. This is especially true of Florida, which is most at risk of an October landfall from a climatological perspective.
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©2017 Meteorologist Dr. Ken Leppert II