Tropical Storm Fernanda to Strengthen to a Hurricane! (Photo Credit: National Hurricane Center)7/13/2017 Tropical Storm Fernanda is located about 845 miles southwest of Baja, California moving west at 12 miles per hour. As of the 8:00 AM advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida, Fernanda has maximum sustained winds of 65 miles per hour and extend outward of about 45 miles from the center of the storm. Strengthening is expected over the next 48 hours as it is forecasted to become a hurricane later today. Models continue to show strengthening into a major hurricane by tomorrow evening (category 3 or higher). After 48 hours, the storm is projected to move into cooler sea temperatures which could cause slight weakening. The forecast discussion, as well as the forecasted winds over the next couple of days, is as follows:
Recent IR and WV images show that Fernanda has begun to establish good outflow in all quadrants, indicating that the shear that previously affected the tropical storm is diminishing. Recent SSMI and SSMIS passes from 1016 and 1130 UTC, respectively, show that that convection is wrapping all the way around a mid-level center, but the low-level center remains displaced a little to the north-northeast. Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB have increased to T 3.5 / 55kt, and the initial intensity has been increased to that value. Confirming what the satellite data suggests, the analyzed shear has decreased below 10 kt. Warm SSTs and sufficient moisture are also contributing to an environment that is very conducive for continued intensification. The SHIPS-RII shows a greater than 50 percent chance of a 30 kt increase in 24 hours and a 45 kt increase in 48 hours. This is a notable increase in the probabilities which have doubled in the last 12 h. Considering the convective structure of the cyclone has improved over the past few hours, and the lack of any obvious inhibiting environmental factors, rapid intensification within the next 24 or 36 hours seems likely. The intensity forecast has been substantially increased for the first 48 hours and now explicitly shows an increase of 30 kt within 24 hours. Fernanda is forecast to be at or near major hurricane strength by tomorrow evening, with conditions favoring additional intensification after that. Near the end of the forecast period, the hurricane is expected to encounter decreasing sea surface temperatures that could cause slight weakening. The intensity forecast is near the top of the guidance envelope, close to the corrected consensus aids FSSE and HCCA. No major changes have been made to the track forecast. The initial motion estimate remains 265/9 kt. A deep-layer ridge extending over a large portion of the eastern north Pacific will steer Fernanda generally westward for the next 2-3 days. Most of the dynamical guidance still shows a slight weakening of the ridge after about 3 days which would cause Fernanda to turn toward the northwest. The NHC forecast is very close to to the track consensus TVCN and is nearly on top of the previous forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/1500Z 11.7N 115.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 14/0000Z 11.5N 116.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 14/1200Z 11.2N 118.3W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 15/0000Z 11.0N 120.3W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 15/1200Z 11.2N 122.4W 110 KT 125 MPH 72H 16/1200Z 12.0N 126.9W 120 KT 140 MPH 96H 17/1200Z 13.4N 131.0W 115 KT 130 MPH 120H 18/1200Z 15.0N 135.5W 105 KT 120 MPH The next advisory will be issued around 2:00 PM Pacific Daylight Time. Stay tuned for up-to-date information on the tropics here! ⓒ 2017 Meteorologist Brandie Cantrell
1 Comment
Sheldon Kusselson
7/13/2017 08:39:01 pm
http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/bTPW/TPW_Animation.html?product=EAST_PACIFIC_TPW Eugene actually is more noticeable in the Blended TPW loop because it had decayed so much that there was now a smaller and more concentrated area of moisture surrounding its rapidly weakened center. Whereas Fernanda still was developing among its large area of high moisture that had not consolidated yet into a hurricane.
Reply
Leave a Reply. |
Archives
May 2022
|