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Tropical Cyclone Topics

The Uncertain Future of Hurricane Irma (credit: Meteorologist Jordan Rabinowitz)

9/2/2017

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DISCUSSION: In the wake of all of the devastation inflicted by the recent landfalls from a Major Hurricane Harvey, there is already a very widely covered and strong-worded media frenzy setting in as the world continues to monitor the evolution of Hurricane Irma.  However, it is imperative to keep some very key points in mind over the course of the next week.  Regardless of where you live (i.e., if you do in fact live somewhere along the U.S. Gulf and/or East Coast, it is still far too out in the process of Hurricane Irma's lifetime to know where she may be headed within 7 to 10 days from now.  Many people's nerves may be particularly startled based on the fact it would appear that the United States just "got done" with one major hurricane and then comes the infamous phrase which is often tied to hurricanes "here we go again."  

Having said that, it is imperative to understand that many of the current model forecasts being discussed by the world media are based on ensemble forecast model products.  Ensemble forecasts models are designed such that individual forecast track members have minor changes with respect to different parameters so that there are a wide array of possible solutions to get an idea of how different forecast scenarios may influence the future intensity and/or track of Hurricane Irma.  Therefore, as forecasts continue to fly onto television, laptop, tablet, smartphone screens, etc., be sure to keep the following knowledge in mind as you read.  That all-important factor is that official hurricane track and intensity forecasts are only ever issued out to 5 days.  The reason for that time-frame of choice is due to the fact that statistical error has only been shown to be reduced sufficiently during that period of time from the current location of a hurricane at some given period in time.  Hence, trying to look beyond any 5-day forecast for an incoming tropical cyclone is futile in all actuality.

Nonetheless, it is imperative for people living across coastal sections of both the Gulf Coast and the East Coast of the United States to remain vigilant over the course of the next 7 to 10 days in case the situation becomes more precarious within the next week.

To learn more about other tropical cyclone-based stories from around the world, be sure to click here!

©2017 Meteorologist Jordan Rabinowitz

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  • Home
  • About
    • GWCC Is
    • Where in the World is GWCC?
    • Contact Us
  • Global Regions
    • Africa
    • Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea
    • Central and Eastern Pacific Ocean
    • Central and South America
    • Europe
    • North America
    • Indian Ocean and Asia
    • Polar Regions
    • South Pacific Ocean and Australia
    • Western Pacific Ocean
  • Weather
    • Applied Meteorology >
      • Air Quality
      • Aviation
      • Droughts
      • Fire Weather
      • Flooding
      • Geosciences
      • Global Environmental Topics
      • Weather Observations
    • Weather Education
    • Weather History
    • Weather Research
    • Weather Safety and Preparedness
    • Severe Weather
    • Social Sciences
    • Space Weather
    • Tropical Cyclones
    • Weather and Health
    • Winter Weather
  • Climate
  • GWCC Global Imagery Archive
  • GWCC Window to the World
    • GOES-16 Live Satellite Imagery Portal
    • GOES-16 ABI Channel Description and Examples
    • GOES-16 ABI Satellite Products
    • GOES-17 Live Satellite Imagery Portal
    • Himawari-8 Live Satellite Imagery Portal
    • Meteosat-11 Live Satellite Imagery Portal
  • Kids Corner
    • Kindergarten to 5th Grade
    • 6th to 12th grade
    • Fun Facts & Weather Trivia
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    • GWCC Wheel of Science