DISCUSSION: Over the course of any given tropical cyclone season in various oceanic basins spread around the world, it is well understood that tropical cyclone genesis and development conditions change on a fairly routine basis. During the course of this current 2018 Tropical Atlantic hurricane season there is certainly no exception to this seasonal tropical reality. Having said that, It is well understood that tropical cyclone genesis and development requires sea-surface temperatures to be at least or greater than 82°F (or 28°C). Thus, it takes fairly warm sea-surface temperatures to both support the formation and subsequent development of tropical cyclones both across the Tropical Atlantic basin and all other tropical cyclone basins around the world for that matter. Therefore, during situations wherein there are widespread sea-surface temperature regimes which are found to be well below-average, this creates concerns both within and beyond the global atmospheric science community for how active or inactive a given tropical cyclone season may end up being.
In helping to address this issue, there has been a tremendous amount of research done over the past several decades which has aimed to help uncover some of the mysteries and uncertainties behind this issue. More specifically, why some combination of atmospheric and oceanic conditions can facilitate the production of many intense tropical cyclones during some given period and during another season under similar conditions there is little to no tropical cyclone action. Among the many global collection of researchers which have worked to answer this question, one of the most premiere tropical cyclone and tropical meteorology researchers out there happens to be Dr. Kerry Emanuel from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology who is a world-renowned expert on this subject. Attached here are just a few examples of some of the comprehensive research work which has gone deep into working to better understand how tropical cyclone intensity forecasts have been and may be able to be further improved with time. Gilford, D. M., S. Solomon, and K. A. Emanuel, 2017: On the seasonal cycles of tropical cyclone potential intensity. J. Clim., 30, 6085-6096. Emanuel. K., and F. Zhang, 2016: On the predictability and error sources of tropical cyclone intensity forecasts. J. Atmos. Sci, 73, 3739-3747 Tang, B., and K. Emanuel, 2010: Midlevel ventilation's constraint on tropical cyclone intensity. J. Atmos. Sci., 67, 1817-1830. These and MANY other papers have gone to show that there is a tremendous amount of work that is currently still being done here in the 21st century to further expand our ability and accuracy in generating effective tropical cyclone forecasts (i.e., with respect to both tropical cyclone track, intensity, and more). Nonetheless, in looking at the graphic above (courtesy of Meteorologist Greg Postel from The Weather Channel), you can see how based on some of the expert and premiere work accomplished by Dr. Kerry Emanuel et al. over the years, there are several points to be made here. First off, there is no debate that there is still a favorable corridor across the Tropical Atlantic basin even as we head deeper into August 2018 as shown in the graphic above. This graphic effectively illustrates which sea-surface temperature zones would likely favor the support of a tropical cyclone of each respective categorical intensity if one were to form over the respective zones shaded in above according to the Saffir-Simpson hurricane intensity scale. Thus, even though the year has been relatively quiet up to this point due to less than favorable environmental conditions, it is critical to remember that it only ever takes one intense tropical cyclone to imprint on the memories of millions of people and their wallets and their government(s) for many years and decades to come. To learn more about other important and relevant stories related to tropical cyclones, be sure to click here! © 2018 Meteorologist Jordan Rabinowitz
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