DISCUSSION: As of the earlier 2:00 PM AST update from the National Hurricane Center (located in Miami, Florida), Tropical Storm Matthew was upgraded to Hurricane Matthew. This is shown in the top graphic attached above which was discussed on-air earlier this afternoon by NBC 6 Meteorologist Adam Berg in Miami, Florida. This decision to upgrade Matthew from tropical storm to hurricane status was made in response to reports from hurricane hunter reconnaissance aircraft of them finding a small pocket of 75 mph maximum sustained winds as well as a minimum central pressure of 993 mb. Since that earlier update at 2:00 PM AST, the more recent 5:00 PM AST update has revealed that the intensity (i.e., the minimum central pressure associated with Matthew) is still holding at 993 mb. Moreover, the maximum sustained winds have also held steady at 75 mph.
In regards to the future track and strength of Hurricane Matthew, the current situation is definitely not a simple one by any means. Over the next few days, Matthew is projected to continue heading west before gradually turning towards the northwest. As Matthew eventually makes a complete 90° turn towards the north as it rides along the western edge of a large subtropical high parked over the western/central Atlantic Ocean, island nations such as Jamaica, Haiti, the Dominican Republic, and Cuba will all be in the crosshairs of Matthew. Therefore, regardless of the exact track of this tropical cyclone moving forward in time, there are many people who will more than likely feel at least some impact(s) from Matthew. Be sure to stay tuned to the Global Weather and Climate Center for further updates as the status and forecast for Matthew continues to evolve!
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DISCUSSION: As Typhoon Megi continues on its current westward track across the far Western Pacific Ocean, you can see the gorgeous, symmetric structure associated with Megi as of earlier today (local time). In the animated visible satellite imagery below, you can notice even more detailed structure associated with the classic banded outflow structure. This is denoted by the healthy and symmetric outflow of cloud bands emanating from the center in a cyclonic direction. Therefore, despite this storm's recent period of intensification occurred reasonably close to its first landfall projected for eastern parts of Taiwan, it still has become and will remain to be a very dangerous tropical cyclone. Currently, Typhoon Megi has sustained winds of 115 MPH with maximum wind gusts up to or possibly just over 145 MPH. This makes Megi the equivalent of a Category 3 hurricane based upon the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale (i.e., the intensity scale which rates hurricane based on the maximum sustained wind speed associated with a tropical cyclone at a given point in time).
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~Meteorologist Jordan Rabinowitz
DISCUSSION: As Tropical Storm Karl regains a little bit of strength as it passes just to the east of Bermuda during the overnight hours tonight, there will continue to be a decent threat to parts of Bermuda. In particular, there will be an increased threat for gusty winds which may take down some weaker structures and consequently power lines as well. Therefore, if you or someone you know is currently living in or on vacation in Bermuda, it would be in their best interest to hunker down until this formidable tropical storm has passed well to the northeast of the Bermuda by later tomorrow afternoon. However, in the wake of Tropical Storm Karl passing just to the east, there may some leftover return flow around the southern edge of the storm and consequently some persistent wave action, beach erosion, and gusty conditions at times making for potentially hazardous travel. For more information on Tropical Storm Karl, be sure to stay tuned right here at GWCC for updates as well as at http://www.weather.bm/tropical.asp!
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~Meteorologist Jordan Rabinowitz
DISCUSSION: As Typhoon Malakas continues to gradually lose strength over the cooler waters just north of Taiwan, the impacts across Central/North Taiwan as well as far southern Japan (i.e., the smaller individual islands located to the south of the primary island of Japan) will gradually abate over the next 12 to 24 hours. At this point in time, Malakas remains to be a dangerous tropical cyclone across the far Western Pacific Ocean with maximum sustained winds still holding at 115 MPH (with occasional gusts up to 145 MPH) making it the equivalent of a Category 3 hurricane (as recognized in the Tropical Central/Eastern Pacific Ocean as well as the Tropical Atlantic Ocean basins). Thus, despite the current weakening trend, there are still legitimate threats to much of Japan as this strong tropical cyclone continues moving to the north and northeast over the next few days!
As a result of this continued threat from Typhoon Malakas, it is in the best interest of people currently residing across both southern and central parts of Japan to make the necessary preparations for this approaching storm. Based on recent infrared satellite imagery trends associated with the circulation of Malakas, there is evidence for re-cooling and an increasingly symmetrical appearance of cloud top temperatures associated with thunderstorms near the center of Malakas. This operationally suggests that Typhoon Malakas may be briefly trying to go through a final cycle of intensification as it continues northward. Despite this continued threat, Malakas spared Taiwan from devastating impacts (albeit widely scattered occurrences of both landslides and mudslides across the island nation of Taiwan) since it ended up tracking just to the east of Taiwan. Nonetheless, even without a direct hit, the combination of gusty winds and heavy rainfall (courtesy of outer bands propagating across Taiwain) generated notable impacts. Hence, as it continues moving to higher latitudes, people should absolutely remain vigilant since even a weakening tropical cyclone is still a viable threat to both life and property.
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@Meteorologist Jordan Rabinowitz
DISCUSSION: As of the last few days, the Tropical Western Pacific Ocean has been quite active, namely, by way of the most recent tropical cyclone called Meranti becoming a Super Typhoon. Super Typhoon Meranti (as seen in the image above courtesy of the NOAA Satellite and Information Service) is at the equivalent intensity of a Category 5 hurricane across the Tropical Atlantic Basin with maximum sustained winds of 185 MPH with occasional gusts up to or possibly over 225 MPH. Therefore, as it gets closer to its final approach to the island nation of Taiwan, Meranti will remain a very legitimate and serious threat to both life and property across the aforementioned parts of the Western Pacific Ocean as well as points to the west/northwest. As it continues on its current heading (i.e., off to the west and eventually off to the west-northwest), there will be a substantial increase in the overall impacts (i.e., predominantly from the storm surge emanating from the northern side of Meranti across many southern and far southeastern parts of Taiwan as well as strong/gusty winds coupled with heavy rainfall associated with stronger progating rain bands). If you or anyone you know is currently in this part of the world, alert them of this situation as conditions across both far southern Taiwan and East-Central China will rapidly deteriorate during the day on Wednesday and Thursday as the center of Meranti makes it closest approach to southern Taiwan and then an actual landfall across East-Central China during the late morning/early afternoon on Thursday.
As seen in the high-resolution satellite image above (courtesy of the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (aka VIIRS) aboard NOAA/NASA Suomi NPP satellite), you can clearly denote the nearly-perfect and symmetric eye which was and still remains in place within the core of Meranti. This very well-defined eye is indicative of the immense power and overall strength of this very intense tropical cyclone moving across the heart of Tropical Western Pacific. In addition, you can also clearly see the very symmetric banding structure associated with what is scientifcally referred to as a classic "annular cyclone," wherein the cyclonically-rotating bandings features which are pivoting around the center of the circulation and nearly perfectly synchronized from west-to-east and from north-to-south. To learn more about other high-impact tropical cyclone-related events, be sure to click here!
@Meteorologist Jordan Rabinowitz
DISCUSSION: A weakening Hurricane Newton continues its northward journey out of the far Eastern Pacific Ocean, through the Gulf of California, and towards the Southwestern United States. As it continues to do so, there will be an increased threat for persistent, heavy rainfall across southern to central parts of Arizona as well as New Mexico. That being said, based on the fact that this Category 1 hurricane is currently situated approximately over the northern part of the Gulf of California with the deepest moisture associated with Newton located north and northeast of this tropical low pressure system's circulation center. This is further supported by the atached animated forecast graphic courtesy of the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model centered over the region of concern.
Based on the information explained in the post linked above (courtesy of the National Weather Service office in Tuscon, Arizone), this continues a concerning situation due to the continued threat emanating from Hurricane Newton. The primary reason for this heightened concern for this hurricane's second landfall in Southern/Central Arizona and parts of New Mexico is the more variable (and elevated) terrain spread across the Southwestern United States. With more elevated terrain, there is inherently an increased threat for both heavier rainfall (i.e., which often occurs as a consequence of increased orographic enhancement as air parcels are forced to rise over the more elevated terrain) and subsequent flooding which ensues as the heavy rainfall runs through and down valleys positioned between the areas of higher terrain. Therefore, this threat will persist for the next 24 to 48 hour or so, until the bulk of the heaviest precipitation associated with what will eventually be Tropical Storm and then Tropical Depression Newton moves further east and northeast. To learn more about other high-impact weather events from across North America, be sure to click here!
@Meteorologist Jordan Rabinowitz
DISCUSSION: As what was formerly Tropical Storm Newton earlier this afternoon (but what is now Hurricane Newton) continues its march northward towards the Baja Peninsula and beyond, there will be an increased threat for the commencement of impacts from the North American Monsoon circulation over the next several days. This increased North American Monsoon threat will be the result of impacts from both the inherent moisture advection associated with Hurricane Newton (i.e., eventually Tropical Storm and ultimately Tropical Depression Newton after landfall) and a weak low-pressure system which will become nearly stationary in the coming days across the Four Corners region of the Southwestern United States.
As the aforementioned low-pressure system begins to ingest and interact with the deeper tropical moisture associated with Newton, this will bolster the potential for persistent, heavy rainfall across areas within (but not limited to): Central-to-Eastern Arizona as well as parts of Western New Mexico. More details can be found within the graphic attached above courtesy of the National Weather Service office in El Paso, Texas! To learn more about other high-impact tropical-cyclone based weather events from around the world, be sure to click here!
DISCUSSION: As Hurricane Hermine begins the process of making its official landfall along the Gulf Coast of the Florida Panhandle, very strong winds will continue battering the west-to-east coastline across this region. That being said, despite the fact that this storm is a relatively weak hurricane, the strong onshore flow which is clearly evident based on the embedded deeper blue (pink) shading on the east(west) sides of this tropical storm's circulation provide a strong indication of tropical storm to hurricane-force winds which are almost certainly reaching the surface along and just inland from the immediate shoreline at this time. Additionally, another point of concern is the dramatically increased threat for storm surge-based flooding and the bulk of the onshore flow maximizes as the center of Hermine moves ashore which will have the effect of pushing all of the deeper wave action near the eastern-half of the center of the storm towards to coves and bays just to the south and west of Perry, Florida (located to the east of St. Marks as seen in the image above as a point of reference).
It is of particular important to also note that this landfall of Hurricane Hermine does bear some minor recent historic significance. More specifically, Hurricane Hermine is the first hurricane to make a first, direct landfall in the state of Florida in 11 years! To learn more about other high-impact weather events from across North America, be sure to click here!
DISCUSSION: As a strengthening Hurricane Hermine continues to makes its final approach into Northern Florida (and specifically with the most significant impacts likely expected to be felt across the span of the Panhandle), there will remain a much larger threat for widespread flooding over the next few days. This increased flooding threat will be a direct consequence of Hurricane Hermine weakening coupled with a persistent flow of tropical moisture with a northeasterly trajectory along the East Coast of the United States. This northward-moving moisture-laden air will generate an increased potential for longer-duration periods of heavy rainfall anywhere from Northern Florida to the Mid-Atlantic region due to the weakening tropical storm's slow rate of northward movement over the next few days. Bearing that in mind, it is imperative to quickly organize your preparation plans for this tropical storm immediately in order to be prepared well ahead of its arrival. Timing it out, the center of a much weaker Tropical Storm (or possibly Tropical Depression) Hermine should be located just offshore from the South Carolina coastline by early Saturday afternoon which will be bring the heaviest rainfall to the Carolinas as well as points further north by later in the day on Saturday! To learn more about other high-impact flooding events from around the world, be sure to click here!
DISCUSSION: As a strengthening Hurricane Hermine continues to bear down on the Florida Panhandle and surrounding areas, there will be increased presence of both persistent and heavy rainfall coupled with strong onshore flow which will increase both wave heights (and consequently the prevalence of beach erosion along much of the Gulf Coast-facing beaches across Northern and Western Florida. Attached below is a current live feed courtesy of the The Weather Channel which has a crew set-up down in Cedar Key, Florida ahead of the upcoming landfall of Hurricane Hermine late tonight. At this time, Hurricane Hermine remains a Category 1 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 75 MPH with a minimum central pressure of 988 mb. Stay tuned for more updates later tonight on this developing situation and to keep tabs on other high-impact weather events from across North America by clicking here!