Discussion: Hurricane Harvey made landfall as a category 4, with wind speeds reaching near 115 kt. Harvey’s contact with the land surface shall decrease the system’s strength due to friction, especially as it tracks further inland. However, the slow-moving, lingering nature of Harvey along the southeastern coast of Texas will dump intense rainfall over a prolonged period and vast territory. Compacted with hazardous winds, it is imperative for individuals residing in the threat zone to remain safe as the intensity of Harvey appears long-lasting. Storm surge along the coast and flooding throughout the inland regions are of the utmost concern, and it is crucial to note the outlined at-risk regions through local National Weather Service forecast products. The rising coastal waters will impact dry areas which will create extremely dangerous flooding conditions. Additionally, heavy rain associated will cause immense inundation within the inner expanses of Texas.
Furthermore, there exists an enhanced risk for tornadoes in middle and upper Texas due to persistent tropical storm conditions. The robust nature of Harvey will create the possibility for tornadic activity throughout the weekend, with the proper instability and vertical shear in place. Essentially, not one portion of Texas will be spared, with rainfall accumulations predicted to be unwelcomingly high throughout the state’s entirety, even spanning into Louisiana.
Hurricane Harvey is sturdy and appears unyielding for the upcoming days. The devastation as a result of this calamitous system will be unfortunate and costly, but safeguarding one’s life is priority. Hurricane Harvey’s wrath is undeniable and it is the rehabilitation of the affected areas that will reflect the solidarity and hope of our nation in the weeks to come.
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©2017 Meteorologist Alexa Trischler
Airlines Preemptively Delay and Cancel Ahead of Harveys Landfall (Credit: Meteorologist Jessica Olsen)
DISCUSSION: Friday was possibly one of the most active weather days in some time and the rest of the weekend will not be shy as Hurricane Harvey batters the Texas and Gulf Coast. Travelers are expected to see some crippling delays in the South/Southeastern Texas region associated with Hurricane Harvey as it made landfall as a Category 4.
Harvey has slowed some as it has hit the coast, and is still providing devastating winds, rain and tornadoes as a Category 2 Hurricane as of 0400 CDT. According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC) a division of NOAA, recent rainfall Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (QPF), an indication of precipitation amounts when a threshold minimum has been met has implied that precipitation in the Houston to Corpus Christi area could extend beyond 20 inches in the 168-hour forecast.
Ahead of the damaging winds, tornadoes, storm surge and rain, airlines have been proactively monitoring the situation to assist passengers when possible. In advance of Hurricane Harvey, American Airlines has activated their relief efforts with the American Red Cross. United, American and other airlines have offered updates and rebooking via their website and reservations to assist with travel difficulties. Harvey is expected to stall and bring heavy flooding to the area. This storm will remain relatively stagnant due to two large high pressure systems one to the northeast, the other southwest of the low, which will act as a blocking mechanism.
Airports affected at this time include: Austin, Beaumont, Brownsville, Corpus Christi, Dallas-Fort Worth, Houston, Houston-Hobby, Lake Charles, Laredo, Midland, and San Antonio. We recommend contacting your local airline if you are traveling to/near the above cities as some cancellations have already been planned through Sunday. Surrounding cities are seeing an inundation of residents and travelers as local emergency crews have evacuated, thus making ground travel and hotel reservations difficult.
For updates on Hurricane Harvey and other weather impacting the nation visit the Global Weather and Climate Center!
© Meteorologist Jessica Olsen
Discussion: The National Hurricane Center has released their 2pm CDT update on Hurricane Harvey. Data from the Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that as of 2pm CDT Hurricane Harvey is currently located 75 miles ESE of Corpus Christi, Texas. Hurricane Harvey has maximum sustained winds of 120 miles per hour, which on the Saffir-Simpson scale correlates to a category 3 hurricane. The minimum central pressure for Hurricane Harvey is now down to 943 mb. Tropical storm force wind gusts have been recorded throughout the day at many locations along the Texas coast. Along with the winds, NOAA tide gages have also shown that 1-2 feet of storm surge inundation has also begun. Harvey is expected to make landfall tonight or early Saturday morning, as a major category 3 hurricane and is poised to bring life threatening and catastrophic conditions with it as it moves ashore and stalls out over the area. All preparations for this storm should be near completion or finished as this storm moves closer to landfall. It is critically important to heed all local and federal government warnings! Keep an eye on friends, family, and neighbors as well! Below is the latest satellite imagery showing the structure and defined eye of Hurricane Harvey. Stay Safe!
Stay tuned for more updates on this dangerous storm here!
~©2017 Meteorologist Shannon Scully
As Hurricane Harvey continues to strengthen southeast of Texas, the impacts cannot be understated. (Click here to read a detailed list of impacts for portions of southeast Texas). Looking forward, there is some indication that once Hurricane Harvey moves over land it will stall and then track back over the warm Gulf waters moving northeast while strengthening into a hurricane again. This would lead to a landfall between the western Louisiana coast to eastern portions of the Texas coast. The European model is the most aggressive with Hurricane Harvey regaining strength before making a second landfall as shown in the above images which correspond to Saturday evening, Tuesday evening, and Wednesday evening, respectively (tropicaltidbits.com). There are even warmer waters in the Gulf of Mexico where Harvey is likely to progress which could support strengthening as shown by the model.
The last few model runs of the European model have shown similar results, with Harvey becoming a hurricane again as it barrels down into portions of the Gulf. It must be stressed that uncertainty exists with this solution, especially since other models do not show Harvey strengthening as rapidly. If a solution like this verifies, all the impacts that will be ongoing later this evening and into the day on Saturday across the southeast coast of Texas will also be possible from the eastern coast of Texas into Louisiana. Devastating flooding is looking more and more likely to impact these areas leading to a life-threatening situation.
Residents in the aforementioned areas should pay attention to this situation closely and be ready to take safety precautions as necessary.
To stay tuned for the latest on Hurricane Harvey, the impacts, and the future track, be sure to click here!
ⓒ 2017 Weather Forecaster Joseph DeLizio
Hurricane Harvey Continues to Strengthen Ahead of Landfall in Texas! (Photo Credit: National Hurricane Center)
Hurricane Harvey is currently churning near the east coast of Texas. As of Friday morning, Harvey has maximum sustained winds near 110 mph and further intensification is still forecasted. Harvey is a strong category 2 hurricane but may be a major hurricane before making landfall. This major storm is going to make landfall late Friday evening; however, it will stall over the Texas coast. Part of the circulation may remain over the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico which may make weakening slower than normal. Once Harvey starts to pull away from Texas, he will go back to the Gulf of Mexico and continue eastward. The track post-landfall is high in uncertainty so stay tuned for more updates. Expected rainfall amounts remain very high where some locations can expect over 20 inches of rain. Along with storm surge and rainfall, tornadoes are also a threat as Harvey makes its way inland. Voluntary evacuations have been issued for areas located in the flood risk area. Texas governor has declared a State of Disaster ahead of Harvey. Gas stations have been reporting fuel shortages. Local oil rigs have been evacuated. Louisiana has already started making preparations for nearly 7 inches of rain in the southwest area of the state.
People need to be making the appropriate preparations for prolonged storm surge and rainfall.
Stay tuned for more updates on Hurricane Harvey here!
ⓒ 2017 Meteorologist Brandie Cantrell
Hurricane Harvey Forecasted to Make Landfall as Major Hurricane! (Photo Credit: National Hurricane Center)
Hurricane Harvey has been rapidly intensifying as the day continued and further strengthening is still forecasted overnight. The National Hurricane Center has issued Storm Surge Watches and Warnings for the coastline of Texas. Storm surge could reach as high as 12 feet, depending on tide. Hurricane Warnings are also in effect for parts of Texas as Harvey is expected to make landfall late Friday evening. The most concerning detail is the rainfall that is expected from this hurricane. Forecasters are expecting more than 20 inches of rain on the middle and upper coast of Texas. The track of the hurricane plays a key role in this scenario. Currently, Harvey is churning over very warm water with very low shear. When Harvey enters Texas, a high pressure in the western United States is going to make the storm stall. The National Hurricane Center has said that they cannot rule out even more intensification is part of the storm remains over water. After it heads inland, Harvey is expected to head eastward towards Louisiana. Evacuations have already begun and gas stations are beginning to report fuel shortages. People have been flocking to grocery stores to prepare for this dangerous storm. Officials are saying this is a life-threatening and devastating storm. People in the area need to take the necessary precautions ahead of the storm.
Key details to take away:
Stay tuned for more updates on this dangerous storm here! Stay Safe!
ⓒ 2017 Meteorologist Brandie Cantrell
DISCUSSION: With the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season less than a month away, it should be expected that tropical systems begin to appear on model guidance more frequently. Today's 12z run of the GFS model provided a great example, as it showed two important areas to monitor a week from now. The map above, courtesy of Tropical Tidbits, shows high and low pressure areas next Sunday from each of the GFS model's 21 ensemble members. The two-digit numbers represent the last two digits of each system's pressure, so 67 means 967mb and 12 means 1012mb.
In this model forecast, there's a fairly potent low pressure area just to the north of Puerto Rico and a less notable low pressure area farther to the east. The reason I used a forecast for just seven days away, instead of farther out in time, is because ensemble forecasts tend to spread out as you move deeper into the forecast period, therefore showing more uncertainty. Even at just seven days, we can see the spread in the low pressure near Puerto Rico, as there are suggestions the storm may move either right over Haiti and the Dominican Republic or move away further to the north and east at that time.
Since many of the individual GFS ensemble members are showing these areas of low pressure, the main idea to take away from an ensemble forecast like this is that there is a decent chance for activity in the eastern tropical Atlantic over the next seven days. Meteorologists use ensemble forecasts not necessarily for exact location, but to judge the certainty of a particular event to occur. If conditions remain ideal for both areas to develop into tropical storms, the one near Puerto Rico would be named Harvey and the area further east would be named Irma.
To learn more about other high-impact tropical cyclones from around the world, be sure to click here!
©2017 Meteorologist Jake Spivey
DISCUSSION: During the course of the last 24 to 48 hours, there have been some critical dynamical adjustments occurring in association with Tropical Storm Franklin. After recently having made its first landfall over in the far eastern sections of the Yucatan Peninsula located in eastern Mexico, the circulation of what then became Tropical Depression Franklin has now moved back over the eastern Bay of Campeche as of earlier this evening. As a result of the circulation of Franklin having now moved back over the warmer open waters of the Bay of Campeche, it has now regained tropical storm strength. Furthermore, as the circulation of Franklin continues to remain over the open waters of the Bay of Campeche over the course of the next 24 hours or so, it will likely have enough time to strengthen to hurricane intensity as is discussed in more detail within the brief video briefing attached above (courtesy of Meteorologist Jordan Rabinowitz).
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©2017 Meteorologist Jordan Rabinowitz
So far, the Eastern Pacific (EPAC) Basin (the North Pacific Ocean east of 140 degrees West longitude) 2017 hurricane season is “on fire.” For July alone, Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE), which measures the combined strength and duration of tropical storms and hurricanes, ran at 2.5 times the recent monthly average. This made July 2017 the fifth most active July on record. On the other hand, the Atlantic Basin remained “on vacation.” … To read the full story, click here - http://www.weatherworks.com/lifelong-learning-blog/?p=1382
© 2017 H. Michael Mogil
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Tropical Storm Emily formed and made landfall within 24 hours in the Gulf of Mexico. Emily hit western Florida making landfall in Anna Maria Island with Tropical-Storm-Force winds of 45 mph. Torrential rainfall of up to 7 inches per hour flooded parts of Florida. A cold front had moved south into the Gulf of Mexico and stalled. With very little shear, warm sea-surface temperatures and a surface-low that had developed along the stationary front, a tropical depression was born. Only two hours after Tropical Depression 6 had formed, radar indicated maximum sustained winds of 45 mph forming a tropical storm with gusts measuring at nearly 60 mph. Taking the tropical storm out of the equation, forecasters were already expecting showers and thunderstorms to form along the stationary front and come across Florida. Add the tropical storm back into the equation and the result is heavy rain and damaging winds. Damage includes roofs being blown off, trees being downed, widespread power outages and road closures. The Sunshine Skyway bridge connecting St. Petersburg to Manatee County was closed due to high winds. A confirmed tornado by the National Weather Service had touched down near Bradenton, Florida damaging barns and greenhouses. After Tropical Storm Emily was downgraded to a tropical depression, the torrential rainfall didn’t end as Miami streets were flooded. Roads and businesses were closed due to the flooding and power outages.
While the tropical system has moved off of the east coast of Florida, rain is still a threat as the front remains stationary. More torrential rainfall can be expected from some of the thunderstorms moving onshore adding to the flooded areas from Tropical Storm Emily. The image above shows the remnants of Tropical Storm Emily to the east of Florida and more showers and thunderstorms are shown to the west of Florida.
“Turn around. Don’t Drown.”
Stay tuned for more on the tropics here!
ⓒ 2017 Meteorologist Brandie Cantrell