Hurricane Dora to Pass South of Baja, California! (Photo Credit: National Hurricane Center)6/26/2017  Hurricane Dora continues to churn off of the southwest coast of Mexico. As of the 9:00 AM advisory, Hurricane Dora has sustained winds of 85 MPH and a central pressure of 985 mb. Hurricane force winds extend outward of 25 miles from the center of the hurricane. While there are no coastal watches or warnings as of 9:00 AM, Dora is forecasted to produce 1-2 inches of rain, and create life-threatening rip currents on the coast of Mexico. Dora is expected to strengthen a little today, however, she will move into more unfavorable conditions on Tuesday and weaken. As seen from the image above, Hurricane Dora is expected to move northwestward, passing to the south of Baja, California. The following is the 9:00 AM advisory from the National Hurricane Center:
BULLETIN Hurricane Dora Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042017 900 AM MDT Mon Jun 26 2017 ...DORA CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN WELL AWAY FROM THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Dora was located near latitude 17.3 North, longitude 106.3 West. Dora is moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected over the next 48 hours. On the forecast track, the center of Dora will remain offshore of the coast of southwestern Mexico today and pass well to the south of the Baja California peninsula on Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is possible today before weakening begins by Tuesday morning. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 985 mb (29.09 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Dora is expected to produce rain accumulations of 1 to 2 inches along coastal sections of the Mexican states of Guerrero and Michoacan through this evening. SURF: Swells generated by Dora are affecting portions of the coast of southwest Mexico. These swells are expected to spread northwestward and begin affecting portions of the coast of the southern Baja California peninsula on Tuesday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT. Stay tuned for more updates on the tropics here! ⓒ 2017 Meteorologist Brandie Cantrell
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The focus during tropical cyclone events is typically on high winds, coastal storm surge, heavy coastal and inland rainfall, and possible flooding. However, if one is located far enough away from the storm’s circulation, atmospheric processes may lead to less rainfall. Such is the case… To read the full story, click here - http://www.weatherworks.com/lifelong-learning-blog/?p=1345 © 2017 H. Michael Mogil To learn more about other high-impact weather events affecting North America, be sure to click here!   The tropics are heating up as two systems form in the Atlantic and Caribbean. The first system to form was Tropical Storm Bret, in the Atlantic Ocean. In the above image, the remnants of Tropical Storm Bret are in the bottom right-hand corner. As of June 20, 2017, the National Hurricane Center has discontinued all watches and warnings for the system as it will continue to weaken. With sustained winds at 40 MPH, and headed WNW, the remnants of Bret will only pose a heavy rainfall and high wind gust threat. Tropical Storm Cindy, however, has maximum sustained winds at 45 MPH and is headed towards the Texas and Louisiana coast. In the image above, Tropical Storm Cindy is located within the yellow circle. The National Hurricane Center has issued Tropical Storm Warnings along Louisiana’s coast and the eastern Texas coast. While Cindy is not expected to strengthen to a hurricane, damaging winds and very heavy rainfall will accompany the storm as it moves inland. As it stands, Cindy will make landfall on Thursday, so people need to prepare today. Once Cindy moves inland, she will start to make a turn eastward and will dissipate. Looking at the potential rainfall forecast, 10 + inches of rain are expected along the Mississippi coastline as the rain bands are located to the north and east of the center.
Stay updated on the tropics here! ⓒ 2017 Meteorologist Brandie Cantrell During the past two days, the tropical Atlantic has come to life. Two weather systems are in the news this Monday morning (Fig. 1). The first is Potential Tropical Storm TWO… To read the full story, click here - http://www.weatherworks.com/lifelong-learning-blog/?p=1341 © 2017 H. Michael Mogil To learn more about other high-impact weather events affecting North America, be sure to click here!   Everyone knows something about tropical cyclones, the broad class of tropical low-pressure systems that includes hurricanes and typhoons (Fig. 1). Many of us know when and where they are more likely to form and how they are named. If you were asked about the most favorable conditions under which these tropical systems develop, among the first things you would probably say would be… To read the full story, click here - http://www.weatherworks.com/lifelong-learning-blog/?p=1318
© 2017 Mayguen Ojeda To learn more about this and other high-impact tropical cyclone-based weather events, be sure to click here!  The Atlantic is starting to ramp up with two disturbances that the National Hurricane Center is keeping an eye on for the next few days. The yellow shade is to signify that there is a chance, however low, that the tropical disturbances could form. The disturbance in the southern Atlantic has a 10% chance of developing in the next 48 hours, and a 20% chance of developing within the next 5 days. The disturbance in the western Caribbean Sea has a 0% chance of developing within the next 48 hours, however it has a 50% of developing in the next 5 days as it moves to more favorable conditions. The full discussion is as follows:
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. A tropical wave located several hundred miles south-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some gradual development of this system is possible during the next few days while the wave moves westward near 20 mph over the tropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. 2. A complex area of low pressure is expected to form over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and the Yucatan peninsula this weekend. Conditions appear to be favorable for gradual development of this system while it moves slowly northwestward toward the southern Gulf of Mexico by early next week. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent. This is a good time to make sure you are prepared should a tropical system head your way. Stay tuned for more updates as we head into the 2017 Hurricane Season by clicking here! ⓒ 2017 Meteorologist Brandie Cantrell |
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