Hurricane Hunters Stop in Puerto Rico During Pre-Hurricane Season Education Tour (credit: NWS NHC)4/28/2018 
DISCUSSION: As we get into the heart of Spring-time months across North America, this also is the time that many people living along or in close proximity to coastal regions along the Gulf Coast and East Coast of the United States start making seasonal preparations for the upcoming hurricane season. As part of the National Weather Service's collective educational initiatives, the NOAA National Hurricane Center's Hurricane Hunter Reconnaissance Aircraft recently started a national educational tour pertaining to the 2018 Tropical Atlantic and Tropical East Pacific Hurricane Season. This has been a very important trend set by various staff from the National Hurricane Center and the U.S. Air Force since this national educational initiative helps to spread the word about the natural dangers tied to hurricane seasons both across the Tropical Atlantic, Tropical Eastern Pacific, and other basins located around the world.
It is worth noting that this particular stop (captured in the Tweet attached above) is especially meaningful in the wake of the results of the 2017 Atlantic hurricane season. Therefore, there is an especially deep meaning with the National Hurricane Center and U.S. Air Force making a stop in parts of Puerto Rico in the wake of the ongoing aftermath from Hurricane Maria as the region prepares for the upcoming 2018 Tropical Atlantic hurricane season. There is certainly some skepticism throughout the global atmospheric science community regarding whether there could be another relatively active Atlantic hurricane season. However, the one thing which is fairly certain is the fact that even if this does end up being a less prolific Atlantic hurricane season, it only ever takes that "one storm" to potentially "make or break" the lives of millions of people at times within a matter of minutes to hours. To learn more about other tropical cyclone-related stories, be sure to click here! © 2018 Meteorologist Jordan Rabinowitz
0 Comments
  DISCUSSION: A quick stop to check the calendar and low and behold, late April is upon us in the Northern Hemisphere. That could only mean that the start of the 2018 Pacific and Atlantic hurricane seasons are right on our doorstep. With the seasons beginning on May 15th and June 1st, respectively, early preparations are being done at the National Hurricane Center (NHC) to facilitate procedures to best relay important information to the public about any potential storms this season. The approaching season also reintroduces us to the NHC forecast cone better known and coined as the “cone of uncertainty.” This cone is often made out to be a villain; a mighty force to be reckoned with. The cone itself has a striking significance, but the science of its creation often goes silent and is just as vital as the visual impression.
Each year, the National Hurricane Center revises their cone based on error statistics compiled over the previous five years of data. The observed positions for each storm’s center of circulation on all advisories (both standard 6-hourly and intermediate 3-hourly) are compared to the forecast positions at each advisory and the difference between the two creates the error distance. These calculations are performed for each projected position at 12-hourly intervals up to the maximum of 120 hours (5 days). The widths of the cone are then determined based on these errors which suggest that statistically, any storm’s center will have a 2/3 probability of being located somewhere in the cone. The remaining 1/3 probability accounts for centers lying outside of the cone. Outliers and poorly-skilled forecasts are just a couple of reasons that this 1/3 probability exists. When comparing the Pacific and the Atlantic Ocean basins, these numbers vary slightly but range from as little as 25 (26) nautical miles at a 12-hour lead time up to 162 (198) nautical miles at a 5-day lead time. Why are these numbers significant? The answer is that over the last few decades, the accuracy of forecast location has sharply improved! The current 3-day error is equivalent to the single-day error in 2000, and the current error at 5 days is equivalent to the 3-day error in 2001. While the reduction in cone size is a great forecasting advantage, it must be constantly stressed that the cone of uncertainty is not a barrier or limit that dictates where impacts from a storm will be felt, nor does it imply that tropical cyclones are decreasing in size. As observed with storms such as Hurricanes Irma, Maria, and Jose from 2017, impacts from any tropical cyclone can be felt several dozen or hundreds of miles/kilometers away from the storm center. These impacts do not have to be weather-related as ocean waves and swells can amplify miles away from the storm leading to coastal erosion and dangerous surf conditions. To see the tables and more information regarding the updated cone for 2018, click here. Also, click here to read some very useful hurricane track verification documentation by the NHC. To learn more about other interesting tropical cyclone-related stories, be sure to click here! © 2018 Meteorologist Brian Matilla  DISCUSSION: With the start of the 2018 Hurricane Season quickly approaching. This discussion will outline what exactly makes a hurricane, and how it forms.
The components of a hurricane are as follows: a source of low pressure, significant moisture in the atmosphere coupled with steep lapse rates, a large distance from the equator, deep and warm waters, and a lack of wind shear. There are several ways that a hurricane can originate. An easterly wave can form into a mesoscale convective system and go into a westward path off the coast of Africa. A source of low pressure can also originate in the Intertropical Convergence Zone; however, it needs to be in a slightly higher altitude in order for it to turn into a hurricane. A Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough, also known as a TUTT, can be used to help guide the low pressure. Simply put, this TUTT is a trough that is situated in the upper levels, at about 200 milibars, near the tropics. An old frontal boundary will also be conducive to hurricane development; however, it should be near the Caribbean and/or the Gulf of Mexico in order for it to develop. No matter where the origin of the hurricane is, the low-pressure system has to be near an atmosphere that is moist throughout and the lapse rates in the area need to be high enough to promote instability and storm development. In order for hurricane development to progress, the system needs to be at least 5° away from the equator. The system also needs to be over warm waters, mainly where the water is 26.5°C/80°F over a depth of 50 meters to 150 meters. One these conditions are met, a tropical depression is formed and numbered. In order for the tropical depression to upgrade to a tropical storm, wind speeds will need to increase to at least 39 miles per hour and form a Central Dense Overcast. A Central Dense Overcast is a large area of thunderstorms surrounding the circulation center of the tropical cyclone. Once wind speeds increase to 74 miles per hour, the tropical storm is officially a hurricane. To learn more about tropical cyclones, click here! © 2018 Weather Forecaster Jennifer Naillon 
DISCUSSION: There is no debate that with a gradually warming planet and with consequently greater amounts of heat energy being stored within Earth's oceans, there is an increasing amount of energy being made available for tropical cyclone development in many parts of the world. Having said that, it is very important to understand how much of an impact natural disasters can have as North America gears up for both the Tropical Atlantic and the Tropical Eastern Pacific hurricane seasons, respectively. During the course of a given tropical cyclone season it is always critical to remember that it only takes one powerful storm to forever change a coastline and the lives of millions of people.
Having said all of the above, it is worth noting that during the course of 2017 alone, there 16 separate billion-dollar weather events across the span of the United States of America. Granted, not all of these events were tropical cyclone-based events, but there was still sizable percentage of events which were in fact tropical cyclones. From Hurricane Harvey, to Hurricane Irma, and then to Hurricane Maria, these were just a few of the incredibly high-impact weather events which slammed the United States during the course of 2017. However, note from the graphic attached above, that those three major hurricanes from 2017 were three of the five most costly U.S. hurricanes in recorded history. Granted, over the last few decades, there has been an increased drive of people moving closer to as well as generating more infrastructure along and near coastal regions. Thus, there is as great of a threat as ever for tropical cyclones to impact densely populated towns and cities both now and moving forward. Hence, in order to reduce the magnitude of tropical cyclone threats well ahead of any immediate landfall threat, be sure to always be hurricane-ready and make any preparations you may need ahead of time. To learn more about other interesting tropical cyclone-related stories, be sure to click here! © 2018 Meteorologist Jordan Rabinowitz 
DISCUSSION: As many people begin to start getting ready for the upcoming 2018 Tropical Atlantic hurricane season, the hurricane season of 2017 is still very much on many people's minds. This is a result of the fact that the Tropical Atlantic hurricane season of 2017 produced a number of very high-impact tropical cyclones which left their mark on many people's lives. From Hurricane Irma, to Hurricane Harvey, and then to Hurricane Maria, millions of people's live were forever changed through being impacted by one or more than one of these powerful tropical cyclones. On that note, the NOAA NWS National Hurricane Center recently released the official report on Hurricane Maria. It goes without any debate whatsoever that from a humanitarian relief standpoint, Hurricane Maria will go down in history as being one of the worst post-landfall situations of all-time (even not to the level of Hurricane Katrina of 2005). The reason for this is a result of the fact that Hurricane Maria left the U.S. territory of Puerto Rico in utter disarray after impacting some islands across the eastern Caribbean Sea.
Regardless of whether or not you or someone you know was impacted by Hurricane Maria, this storm summary recently generated and released by scientists working over at the National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida is a GREAT read. There is a ton of neat insights about the evolution as well as the life-cycle of this historic tropical cyclone. To learn more about this summary in full-detail, just click on the link in the Tweet above. To learn more about other interesting tropical cyclone stories, be sure to click here! © 2018 Meteorologist Jordan Rabinowitz |
Archives
March 2019
|
RSS Feed