Inside Edge on the Success of the Forecast Track for Hurricane Florence (Image Credit: NWS NHC)9/17/2018 
DISCUSSION: There is no debate that despite the horrific flooding, wind, and storm surge impacts which have unfolded and "revealed their ugly head" in the wake of the landfall and the subsequent gradual weakening of Hurricane Florence, there are still parts of this tropical cyclone which are going to be looked more highly upon. Once such issue happens to be the evolution of the forecast track of Hurricane Florence in the days leading up to the first and final landfall which occurred in the vicinity of Wrightsville Beach, North Carolina. It goes without saying that there were great strides made by the operational forecasters at the NWS National Hurricane Center located in Miami, Florida along with other regional National Weather Service forecast offices. However, one question which has been circulating around social media rather quickly is regarding just how good the forecast track projections for Hurricane Florence actually were when all was said and done?
Attached above is a brief video briefing which goes into greater detail regarding just how good the evolving forecast track of Hurricane Florence actually was throughout its lifetime. Note how good the future forecast track was during the latter part of the forecast track in the days leading up to landfall of Florence and what this may mean in a positive sense for atmospheric science moving forward in time! To learn more about other tropical cyclone-related stories from around the world, be sure to click here! © 2018 Meteorologist Jordan Rabinowitz
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 DISCUSSION: Major Hurricane Florence is taking aim at South Carolina, North Carolina and Virginia towards the end of the week. As of 5:00 PM on 10 September 2018, Hurricane Florence is a category 4 storm with sustained winds of 140 miles per hour. South Carolina, North Carolina, Virginia and, most recently, Maryland have declared a State of Emergency in preparation of Florence. Mandatory evacuation stretches from South Carolina, through North Carolina into Virginia. Know your zone if you live in an evacuation area so when the order comes in, you are ready to evacuate. The main threats associated with Hurricane Florence are high winds, high surf, storm surge, and torrential rain. Florence is not only a coastal storm as it will impact inland areas as well. People in Southwestern Virginia are on alert as Florence has the potential to drop feet of rain which can cause not only flooding but also landslides.
Hurricane Florence is currently (as of 6:45 PM EST on 10 September 2018) located southeast of Bermuda. It is expected to head westward towards the Carolinas. Pinpointing the exact landfalling location is still difficult; however, areas along the coast will feel the impact starting Wednesday. Tropical storm force winds have the potential to extend outward to West Virginia and Kentucky. Unfortunately, current models are hinting at a slowing storm once Florence makes landfall which means the storm will sit over the Mid-Atlantic for days and dump inches, potentially feet of rain. In preparation for Hurricane Florence, you will want to heed the warnings. Ensure you are paying attention to the forecast in case it makes a drastic change. You will also want to go to the grocery store and get things that you’ll need should the power go out for a long period of time. This can include a first aid kit, canned food, water, flashlights, batteries, portable chargers, and also things for your pets and children. If you need to evacuate, make sure you take a video record of all of your belongings should you need to make an insurance claim. Stay up to date on the latest details regarding the status of Hurricane Florence at www.globalweatherclimatecenter.com/tropicalcyclones and www.twitter.com/gwccwx. ⓒ 2018 Meteorologist Brandie Cantrell  DISCUSSION: Tropical Storm Gordon made landfall near the Alabama, Mississippi state line just before midnight local time on Sept. 4th, 2018. Although Gordon is no longer classified as a tropical system, its remnants are still producing heavy rainfall and flash flooding. As Gordon slowly moved to the north, northwest into Arkansas and southern Missouri the tropical depression interacted with a stationary front, becoming a post-tropical system with frontal boundaries. As of 1800 UTC the Weather Prediction Center, or WPC, had the center of the now post-tropical system located over southern Illinois and are forecasting it to track east, northeast through the Ohio River Valley. 24 hour rainfall totals are expected to exceed two inches from central Indian to central Pennsylvania, with totals exceeding four inches over central eastern Ohio and western Pennsylvania.
The system has also prompted the WPC to issue numerous Mesoscale Precipitation Discussions, or MPD, with one currently focused over the Ohio River Valley, see above image. Within this region expect embedded regions of extreme rainfall, with rainfall rates possibly exceeding three inches per hour. Rainfall rates close to this have already been recorded in Mount Vernon, IL, where 2.41 inches of rainfall was measured in one hour. In addition to the embedded regions of extreme rainfall, prolonged rainfall is also a concern. The continuous rainfall could lead to three to four inches of rainfall occurring over the next six hours across the region. Such rainfall rates and totals could lead to localized flash flooding and rivers and streams overflowing their banks. Remember to be alert and if you see flooded road ways turn around and find an alternate route. Although the immediate impact from the system is heavy rainfall and flooding near its center and to its east, another threat is the development of showers and thunderstorms along its cold front, across the Lower and Mid-Mississippi Valley. These storms are not likely to be severe, though there is a slight chance of localized strong winds. The largest threat will be flash flooding due in part to the already saturated conditions from the first round of rain from Gordon. Another factor is the effects the daytime heating will have in combination with the tropical moisture being supplied by the post-tropical system. Such a combination could lead to hourly rainfall rates exceeding two inches and has resulted in an additional MPD being issued for eastern Arkansas. Aside from the flash flood threat, the rain from the remnants of Gordon has been and will continue to impact American Football games. Currently, none of the college games have been postponed due to the rain, though the wet conditions have resulted in dropped balls and missed kicks. The larger impact on the sport will likely be tomorrow, Sunday Sept. 9, when the Cleveland Browns play the Pittsburgh Steelers. Heavy rainfall is excepted across the Cleveland region, with winds gusting to 40 mph. These conditions could result in the postponement of the game, though currently the game is expected to start as scheduled. To stay update with the rainfall associated with the remnants of Gordon go to https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov To learn more about other high-impact tropical cyclone stories from around the world, be sure to click here! © 2018 Meteorologist Sarah Trojniak  DISCUSSION: On Saturday, September 1, Tropical Storm Florence was officially declared a tropical storm just west of the Cape Verde Islands in the Atlantic Ocean. The storm started as a tropical wave over Senegal in Western Africa which was first detected on August 28 as an area of low pressure. Florence then became Tropical Depression Six as it crossed over warm water and gained momentum over the Cape Verde Islands on Friday, August 30. Florence is the sixth named storm in a hurricane season which has had a large amount of Saharan dust which has led to an increased persistence and depth in the level of dry air in the atmosphere for much of the summer. This layer of dry air inhibits the formation of hurricanes over much of the Tropical Atlantic Basin in most circumstances.
On Wednesday, September 5, Florence gained strength from a Category 1 hurricane to a major Category 4 hurricane with windspeeds of 130 mph. By the rapid intensification, Florence officially becomes the first hurricane of the season to be at Category 3 or higher. Florence increased in intensity due to warmer sea-surface temperatures as well as encountering low vertical wind shear. Sea-surface temperatures are one of the key components as warmer sea-surface temperatures lead to higher amounts of evaporation which then leads to condensation and the release of heat which leads to even more water being evaporated. A low shear environment is the other key fundamental ingredient for hurricanes as a high amount of vertical wind shear would often have the effect of disrupting and tearing apart convection within the core of a hurricane due to the change in both wind speed and wind direction. However, Florence encountered strong directional shear on Thursday, September 6, as an area of high pressure to the north weakened and moved away which in turn also decreased the wind speed. The shear and decrease in wind speed led to Florence being downgraded from a Category 4 hurricane to a Tropical Storm on September 6. The latest forecast track from the National Hurricane Center (NHC) has Florence traveling west-northwest re-gaining strength. The newest track has Florence going towards the eastern coast of the United States with much of the southeast from Florida to Virginia within the cone of uncertainty. The cone of uncertainty is the cone which shows the area where the different models forecast the area where the tropical cyclone will travel with the edges being the most extreme models. The regain in strength is due to a decreasing shear and a climb in sea-surface temperatures in its west-northwesterly course. The tracks for much of the past few days had Bermuda possibly being hit before Florence hit the large area of shear on September 6. As of right now, there are no warnings as Florence is not expected to come close to land until at least Wednesday, September 12. To learn more about other high-impact tropical cyclone stories from around the world, be sure to click here! © 2018 Meteorologist JP Kalb 
DISCUSSION: Over the past couple of days, there has been an increasing amount of attention paid to the development and intensification of Hurricane Florence which remains at major hurricane status as of earlier on Wednesday night (09/05/2018). Having said that, there is a lot of reason to be as well as to not be overly concerned at this point with regard to the future track of Hurricane Florence. First off, let's establish the reasons for why someone living in Bermuda and/or somewhere along the East Coast of the United States will definitely want to continue paying attention to the future intensity and track of this hurricane which is currently spinning over the open waters of the eastern Tropical Atlantic Ocean basin.
For starters, the fact is that this is indeed a major hurricane as of tonight and therefore represents a certainly dangerous natural hazard to anyone in its path as long as it maintains a similar intensity moving forward. In addition, even if it continues to weaken a bit more, this would still be a relatively larger tropical cyclone with plenty of rainfall and more than likely a decent storm surge tied to it as well. Therefore, as with any tropical cyclone, Hurricane Florence should continue to be taken seriously even despite some apparent weakening and structural breakdown being observed with it tonight in the wake of increasing southwesterly vertical wind shear. It is worth noting that the environment both right along and around Hurricane Florence will likely improve a bit within the next 24 to 36 hours as well, so the storm may still have an opportunity to re-gain some of the "steam" it lost during the evening of 09/05/2018. Now, on the flip-side, here are some reasons for why anyone potentially in the future path of Hurricane Florence should not be worrying too much just yet. As reflected in the content of the spectacular tweet which has been attached above (courtesy of Meteorologist Stu Ostro from The Weather Channel), there are a number of other atmospheric components which may very well end up changing the future track and speed of Hurricane Florence as it continues on its current northwest track. For example, the larger trough which is currently positioned over north-central Canada could quite possibly help to nudge Hurricane Florence further offshore if it ends up reaching the Eastern United States well prior to the closest future approach of Florence to the East Coast of the United States. In addition, the couple of other smaller systems which are identified on this same graphic and noted accordingly, could potentially help to break down the ridge of high pressure which is currently in place over southeast Canada. If that were to happen, then this would make the trough that much more influential in being able to nudge any reasonably close approach of Hurricane Florence much further offshore. However, at this point in the forecast process, all of these factors are simply VERY far out in the future as of the present time. Therefore, it would simply be foolish and premature to read into any of these possibilities this far out from any possible impacts which would still be at least 7 to 10 days away from now. To conclude in short, as always at the Global Weather and Climate Center, we will continue to keep you updated as this situation evolves so stay tuned for further updates on the future of Hurricane Florence as the storm's future evolves. To learn more about other high-impact tropical cyclone stories from around the world, be sure to click here! © 2018 Meteorologist Jordan Rabinowitz Gravity Wave Propagation within Super Typhoon Jebi (credit: Meteorologist Jordan Rabinowitz)8/31/2018 
DISCUSSION: As of earlier today, Super Typhoon Jebi was making global headlines as it continued to impress both meteorological and non-meteorological communities alike as a powerful tropical cyclone spinning across part of the Western Pacific Ocean basin. As shown in the animated satellite imagery above (courtesy of the Himawari-8 satellite imager), there was very robust convection propagating both within and right around the edge of the eye wall and the central dense overcast region associated with Jebi. As a point of clarification, the central dense overcast within a tropical cyclone is the region wherein there is most often found to be the strongest thunderstorm activity wrapped around the immediate center and inner core regions of a given tropical cyclone. It goes without saying that Super Typhoon Jebi will remain to be a very legitimate and serious threat for the island nation of Japan in the coming days as it will most likely remain at least the equivalent of a major hurricane from the Tropical Atlantic basin.
As far as neat features go in association with Super Typhoon Jebi, one of the more interesting features currently being observed in association with Jebi is the consistent generation of gravity waves outward from the eye much earlier in the day on Friday morning (i.e., local time over in the Western Pacific Ocean basin). Gravity wave generation within the inner core region of intense tropical cyclones often occurs as a result of more rapid inner core pressure gradient changes and/or fluctuations. As a result of these more rapid inner core pressure changes occurring, the tropical cyclone dynamical response is sometimes visually observed in the form of gravity waves which are essentially vertical undulations in atmospheric flow. In a physical sense, gravity waves are effectively an atmospheric equilibrium-based response where the atmosphere is seeking an energetically-balanced state but is unable to do so within the inner-core of an intense tropical cyclone. Therefore, within the upper-most cloud deck associated with the inner core of more intense tropical cyclones there is often found to be at least a brief period during which gravity waves emanate from the eye wall and outward radially in all directions for at least 20 to 40 nautical miles or so (depending on the intensity of the given pressure gradient within a given storm near the time of peak intensity). It goes without saying that when gravity wave generation happens within the core of intense tropical cyclones for longer periods of time, this is especially when one should be concerned and attentive about future changes in intensity as well as forward track of a given tropical cyclone. To learn more about other neat stories pertaining to tropical cyclones from around the world, be sure to click here! © 2018 Meteorologist Jordan Rabinowitz Why Hurricane Lane Is Considered a Rare Event (credit: Meteorologist Ash Bray / photo credit: NASA)8/31/2018  Hurricane Lane, once a Category 5, fell apart as it inched closer to the Hawaiian Islands from the south. Despite Lane’s beautiful collapse, this storm brought several feet of rain to some parts of the Big Island. Before Lane’s landfall, emergency officials were urging residents to gather supplies and prepare their property for the storm’s impact, producing scenes we normally associate with the Gulf region of the United States. But, why is it so unheard of for Hawaii to find itself in the path of a major hurricane? After all, Hawaii is an island state resting in the middle of the Pacific Ocean, where Pacific storms consistently reach extreme intensities farther to the West. However, Hawaii has only experienced landfalls from two hurricanes and two tropical storms since 1959. In 2014, it appeared that two hurricanes were on course to hit Hawaii back-to-back. Thankfully, one of the then-hurricanes, Iselle, was downgraded to a tropical storm before making landfall; Iselle’s twin, Julio, moved too far north, missing the islands.
It turns out Hawaii is in a “sweet spot” for a few reasons! Geographically speaking, the Pacific Ocean is exceptionally large (62.46 million-square-miles) while the Islands are quite small (10,931 square miles). Thus, the odds of a major hurricane striking such a small target is low, especially when compared to the odds of a hurricane striking along North America’s Gulf Coast or East Coast. In order for a hurricane to make direct landfall with Hawaii, the atmospheric conditions have to be perfect. Throughout May and October – peak hurricane season – a strong subtropical high-pressure feature sits to the north of Hawaii, acting as a barrier and driving storms westward. Cooler ocean waters to the north and east of the Hawaiian Islands also help to protect the region. Most years, the ocean temperatures are too cool for intense tropical systems to strike from the east. We can thank the regional ocean currents for this, as they bring cooler Alaskan waters down and along the eastern Pacific and West Coast regions. Ocean-surface temperatures tend to warm up the further south you go in the Northern Pacific Ocean, meaning a tropical system moving towards the Hawaiian Islands from the south would have a much higher probability of surviving. Any south or southwest wind aloft would help to steer a tropical system towards the Islands. During El Nino years, this situation changes slightly; El Nino allows warmer waters to creep further northward, getting into the tropical east-to-west track of tropical systems coming in from the eastern Pacific. This increase in ocean-surface temperatures also promotes tropical system formation closer to the Islands as well as across the eastern Pacific Ocean. El Nino also lessens the trade winds that occasionally decrease tropical activity, allowing tropical activity to the south to be drawn northward. Despite their rarity, when strong hurricanes strike Hawaii, they are often very damaging. In 1992, Hurricane Iniki – the most powerful Hawaiian hurricane (pre-Lane) – killed six and injured over 1,000 people, causing $1.8 billion in damages. Unlike the Gulf and Eastern Coast, large-scale evacuations are immensely challenging due to Hawaii’s remote, cramped geography. Unfortunately, this means that when a major tropical system is charted to strike Hawaii, many are left without shelters. According to a recent report, Hawaiian officials believe that when it comes to seeking shelter, most people would be left to fend for themselves. While most of the Island chain’s shelters are comprised of public schoolhouses, officials fear that these buildings – which are not always up to code due to high inspection costs – would not be able to withstand a major storm. Thankfully, Hurricane Lane dissipated greatly before striking the Hawaiian Islands. Lane was also bombarded with vertical wind shear and dry air which attacked Lane’s core, leading to the storm’s demise. Although Lane produced severe flooding and landslides on the Big Island, the storm surge and extreme winds were lessened, sparing the Islands from devastating wind damage. To learn more about other interesting meteorological topics, be sure to click here! © 2018 Meteorologist Ash Bray 
DISCUSSION: As another August gives way to September and the start of meteorological fall, this is about the time of the year where tropical cyclone activity begins to escalate rapidly. While the Atlantic hurricane season has been anything but active with only five official named storms so far, the Pacific hurricane season is the direct antithesis with a current total of 14 named storms; eight of these 14 storms attained hurricane classification and five of the eight were classified as major hurricanes. This includes the then-powerful Hurricane Lane which approached the state of Hawaii and was largely responsible for the extreme rainfall accumulations in several regions of the Big Island. Hurricanes Miriam and Norman are currently spinning about in the open waters of the Pacific, adding to the record values of accumulated cyclone energy.
The accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) index is a parameter that is used to quantify overall cyclonic activity. It’s calculation is intuitive – ACE equals the squared sum of the maximum single-minute sustained wind speed at six-hourly intervals (00, 06, 12, and 18 UTC) multiplied by 10^-4 (or 1/10,000). The squared velocity is an analog to the kinetic energy generated by the storm and accumulating that energy over the six-hourly intervals yields a value for ACE. Dimensional analysis reveals that the units can also be expressed as m2 / s2, which describes the energy per unit mass. In climatology, the average ACE in the eastern Pacific through the 31st of August is about 72 (assuming the unit is kt^2). However, the 2018 season has so far seen a value for ACE around 163 which is more than twice of climatology to the date (compared to the quieter Atlantic with current ACE of around 18). This indicates that tropical cyclone activity in the Pacific is characterized by hyperactivity. So what factor(s) are responsible for the frequent development of cyclones that we’ve witnessed this season in the Pacific? One of the key forcing mechanisms for the active Pacific season lies within the warming of the Pacific ocean related to the transition between a La-Niña pattern to more of a weak El-Niño pattern. A consequence with the onset of an El-Niño pattern is the deepening of the ocean thermocline in the Pacific, or depth at which ocean temperatures drop considerably, meaning that warmer waters are available at greater depth for storms to potentially use. Also at the global scale, the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is in a favorable phase for growth of tropical cyclones in the Pacific Ocean. Briefly, the MJO consists of eight phases with each individual phase focusing elevated levels of convection between the Indian and Pacific Oceans. Over the last month, the MJO signal was most prominent in phases six and seven (signal over the Western Pacific), although right now the signal is rather weak and focused over the Maritime Continent. Still, the presence of an MJO signal in the Western Pacific was enough to hint at enhanced convection over much of the Pacific basin. A synopsis at greater detail on the MJO signals can be found in this presentation. Another contributing factor is the lack of vertical wind shear. Without significant wind shear, thunderstorms surrounding the center of low pressure are free to grow unabated and vertically aligned while rotating, keeping the storm intact or perhaps intensifying. A host of scientific journal articles delve into the shear-intensity problem. An interesting paper that describes this effect at a high level can be accessed below: Paterson, L. A., B. N. Hanstrum, N. E. Davidson, and H. C. Weber, 2005: Influence of Environmental Vertical Wind Shear on the Intensity of Hurricane-Strength Tropical Cyclones in the Australian Region. Mon. Wea. Rev., 133, 3644-3660. With three months still outstanding in the 2018 Pacific hurricane season, the high development frequency of tropical cyclones serves as a message to always remain vigilant for any activity that could form and threaten land. As an aside, it is always important to stay alert to upcoming tropical development, especially as the Atlantic basin approaches peak development during the months of September and October. To learn more about other important and relevant stories related to tropical cyclones, be sure to click here! © 2018 Meteorologist Brian Matilla  During the lifespan of a tropical cyclone, the system will go through what is known as an eyewall replacement cycle (ERC). They naturally occur when a tropical cyclone reaches major hurricane strength with winds of 115 mph or greater. When this happens, the rainbands outside of the main eyewall may strengthen and organize into a ring of thunderstorms. This is known as the outer eyewall. This newly formed eyewall moves slowly inward towards the inner eyewall and begins to take a toll on the tropical cyclones dynamics. It robs the inner eyewall of its moisture and angular momentum. In intense tropical cyclones, the strongest winds are located inside the main eyewall. As the outer eyewall takes control, it will “choke” out the inner eyewall and eventually replace it. This tends to weaken the tropical cyclone as it organizes with its newly formed eyewall. Once the ERC is complete, the storm will have a new smaller eyewall and may re-intensify depending on the environment it is propagating towards. However, sometimes an ERC can lead to a hurricane forming a large annular eyewall. This is when an eyewall is surrounded by a thick and organized ring of intense thunderstorm activity, but the storm lacks a few discrete convective features outside of the eyewall such as rainbands. This tends to give the cyclone a truck tire or donut shaped look as the eye expands, becomes larger and more asymmetric. Unlike typical intense tropical cyclones, this type of storm is not prone to the fluctuations in strength that comes with an eyewall replacement cycle. Annular tropical cyclones tend to hold their peak intensities for a longer period than do most intense tropical cyclones. Typhoon Soulik for example, a tropical cyclone in the western Pacific basin, just recently underwent this process before tracking through the southern Japanese islands. A tropical cyclone on average has an eyewall that is approximately 20-40 miles wide across. According to phys.org, Typhoon Souliks eye was between 40-50 nautical miles wide. Another example of an annular tropical cyclone was hurricane Isabel back in the 2002 Atlantic hurricane season. Hurricane Isabel displayed annular characteristics and had an eye that spanned about 40 nautical miles. The most recent update on Typhoon Soulik states that it is a category 3 typhoon with a centralized pressure of 950 mb and maximum sustained winds of 110 mph. The Japanese Meteorological Agency has Soulik continuing its northwest track before making a northeast turn towards the Korean Peninsula. Soulik is expected to maintain category 3 strength through Wednesday, but then start to weaken rapidly as it enters an unfavorable atmospheric environment. With that said, even when it makes landfall as a tropical storm, it will still be capable of producing flooding rains, damaging wind gusts and dangerous coastal conditions across the peninsula through Friday. Below is the projected path of Typhoon Soulik provided by the Japan Meteorological Agency. To learn more about other important and relevant stories related to tropical cyclones, be sure to click here! © 2018 Meteorologist Joseph Marino  
DISCUSSION: Over the course of any given tropical cyclone season in various oceanic basins spread around the world, it is well understood that tropical cyclone genesis and development conditions change on a fairly routine basis. During the course of this current 2018 Tropical Atlantic hurricane season there is certainly no exception to this seasonal tropical reality. Having said that, It is well understood that tropical cyclone genesis and development requires sea-surface temperatures to be at least or greater than 82°F (or 28°C). Thus, it takes fairly warm sea-surface temperatures to both support the formation and subsequent development of tropical cyclones both across the Tropical Atlantic basin and all other tropical cyclone basins around the world for that matter. Therefore, during situations wherein there are widespread sea-surface temperature regimes which are found to be well below-average, this creates concerns both within and beyond the global atmospheric science community for how active or inactive a given tropical cyclone season may end up being.
In helping to address this issue, there has been a tremendous amount of research done over the past several decades which has aimed to help uncover some of the mysteries and uncertainties behind this issue. More specifically, why some combination of atmospheric and oceanic conditions can facilitate the production of many intense tropical cyclones during some given period and during another season under similar conditions there is little to no tropical cyclone action. Among the many global collection of researchers which have worked to answer this question, one of the most premiere tropical cyclone and tropical meteorology researchers out there happens to be Dr. Kerry Emanuel from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology who is a world-renowned expert on this subject. Attached here are just a few examples of some of the comprehensive research work which has gone deep into working to better understand how tropical cyclone intensity forecasts have been and may be able to be further improved with time. Gilford, D. M., S. Solomon, and K. A. Emanuel, 2017: On the seasonal cycles of tropical cyclone potential intensity. J. Clim., 30, 6085-6096. Emanuel. K., and F. Zhang, 2016: On the predictability and error sources of tropical cyclone intensity forecasts. J. Atmos. Sci, 73, 3739-3747 Tang, B., and K. Emanuel, 2010: Midlevel ventilation's constraint on tropical cyclone intensity. J. Atmos. Sci., 67, 1817-1830. These and MANY other papers have gone to show that there is a tremendous amount of work that is currently still being done here in the 21st century to further expand our ability and accuracy in generating effective tropical cyclone forecasts (i.e., with respect to both tropical cyclone track, intensity, and more). Nonetheless, in looking at the graphic above (courtesy of Meteorologist Greg Postel from The Weather Channel), you can see how based on some of the expert and premiere work accomplished by Dr. Kerry Emanuel et al. over the years, there are several points to be made here. First off, there is no debate that there is still a favorable corridor across the Tropical Atlantic basin even as we head deeper into August 2018 as shown in the graphic above. This graphic effectively illustrates which sea-surface temperature zones would likely favor the support of a tropical cyclone of each respective categorical intensity if one were to form over the respective zones shaded in above according to the Saffir-Simpson hurricane intensity scale. Thus, even though the year has been relatively quiet up to this point due to less than favorable environmental conditions, it is critical to remember that it only ever takes one intense tropical cyclone to imprint on the memories of millions of people and their wallets and their government(s) for many years and decades to come. To learn more about other important and relevant stories related to tropical cyclones, be sure to click here! © 2018 Meteorologist Jordan Rabinowitz |
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