The Storm Prediction Center (or SPC) has put together a map of the severe risk today into tonight for the Mid-Atlantic states. For Wednesday, April 5, 2017 the SPC has forecasted a slight chance for severe weather from southern Virginia into northern North Carolina. An enhanced risk of severe weather has been forecasted for southern North Carolina and northern South Carolina. A high risk has been forecasted for southwestern South Carolina and northeastern Georgia. The main threats for this event are wind damage, large hail and long-lived tornadoes. The severe threat will transition into tonight/ early Thursday morning for eastern Virginia and North Carolina. The threats remain the same with damaging winds, large hail and tornadoes.
Eastern North Carolina and Virginia had recently experienced severe weather with three tornadoes touching down in the Virginia Beach area. On March 31, 2017 an EF-2 tornado touched down and left damage in its path. If you are in the path of these storms, please stay weather alert and know your action plan. The full discussion from the Storm Prediction Center regarding the Mid-Atlantic’s risk for severe weather is as follows: ...SUMMARY... Organized severe storm development is possible across parts of the Mid Atlantic Coast region Thursday, mainly prior to the 2-4 pm EDT time frame. This includes a risk for supercells with potential for tornadoes, and perhaps a narrow evolving squall line accompanied by potential for damaging surface gusts. ...Synopsis... An amplification within the westerlies is forecast to continue translating across the central into eastern U.S. during this period, with large-scale ridging gradually shifting east of the U.S. Rockies and Canadian Prairies, and downstream troughing progressing across the Appalachians into the Atlantic Seaboard. The center of a broad and deep lower/mid tropospheric cyclone embedded within the troughing is still expected to migrate northeastward, near or just east of the lower Great Lakes region, with a trailing cold front surging eastward and southward, off much of the Atlantic coast, including much of the Florida peninsula, and through much of the Gulf of Mexico. Stable conditions associated with cooling and/or drying in the wake of the front will result in low to negligible convective potential across much of the nation. However, prior to the frontal passage, models continue to indicate a window of opportunity for organized severe storm development across parts of the Mid Atlantic Coast region. Low probabilities for thunderstorm activity may also accompany a couple of short wave perturbations emanating from a strong mid-latitude Pacific jet, which may continue to nose inland across northern California toward the northern intermountain region. ...Mid Atlantic Coast region... Models continue to indicate that the exit region of a 90-110+ kt cyclonic 500 mb jet streak will nose northeast of the southern Appalachians through Mid Atlantic coastal areas early Thursday. And guidance remains suggestive that associated strong forcing for ascent will provide support for renewed significant surface cyclogenesis to the east of the central Appalachians. Rapid deepening of the surface low may be underway by 12Z Thursday near the Blue Ridge, and strengthening southerly low-level flow within its warm sector (including up to 50-70+ kt at 850 mb) is expected to result in the northward advection of moisture characterized by lower/mid 60s surface dew points within a plume across eastern Virginia into the vicinity of the low center. Guidance indicates that rapid deepening of the low will continue into midday and beyond, with the center possibly tracking across northern Virginia and central Maryland before frontal occlusion takes place. Given this environment, including thermodynamic profiles initially characterized by modestly steep mid-level lapse rates that may support CAPE of 500-1000 J/kg, there still appears considerable potential for organized severe storm development. This may include discrete supercells capable of producing large hail and tornadoes, and perhaps an evolving convective line accompanied by the risk for damaging surface gusts, with precipitation loading enhancing the downward transfer of higher momentum to the surface. Due to the uncertain influence of the cooler/stable marine layer near the Chesapeake, greatest confidence in severe weather potential still appears focused along/east of the Interstate 95 corridor of southeastern Virginia into northeastern North Carolina during the late morning through midday hours. However, given the current forecast of the track and rate of deepening of the surface low, this threat could develop northward into the Washington D.C and Baltimore metro areas, and across the Delmarva peninsula/adjacent southern New Jersey, before the front advances offshore by late afternoon. For more about severe weather, be sure to click here! ⓒ 2017 Meteorologist Brandie Cantrell
1 Comment
Jacqui Cantrell
4/9/2017 11:37:15 am
Insightful and well written.
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