 On May 25, 2017, storms swept through the Mid-Atlantic states. The first round of storms came overnight and brought nearly an inch of rain to the D.C. Metro area. Minor flooding did occur as people made their way to school or work. Around 4:30 PM EST, the second round of storms hit the area. These storms carried hail and high winds. The picture above is from Catlett, Virginia from the second batch of storms. While no hail accompanied this part of the storm, hail was reported just north of where this photo was taken. This particular storm did become severe after it passed, but was later downgraded. Southwestern Virginia was not so lucky. The heavy rain has brought significant flooding to the Roanoke area and officials are advising people to not drive through a flooded street. A road in Grayson County, Virginia was washed away due to the heavy rains from May 24, 2017. Tornadoes were reported and confirmed in North Carolina from the May 24th storms as well. One tornado ripped a roof off of Courtney Elementary School in Yadkin County, North Carolina.
The threat is still not over, however, the Storm Prediction Center has indicated that central and southwestern Virginia as well as northern North Carolina stretching all the way into Texas are under a slight threat for severe thunderstorms on Saturday. The threat will be after noon and into the evening. With diurnal heating and mid-level shear, storms could potentially be accompanied by large hail, damaging winds and an isolated tornado. Saturday is still two days away, so the forecast can change for the better or worse. Please, stay tuned for further updates on the severe threat here! ⓒ 2017 Meteorologist Brandie Cantrell
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High Risk for Severe Weather in Oklahoma and Kansas! (Photo Credit: Storm Prediction Center)5/18/2017  After two days of severe weather where tornadoes swept through many states in the Great Plains, the Storm Prediction Center has forecasted a high risk of severe weather today for Oklahoma and Kansas. The main threats for the high risk area are strong, long-lived tornadoes with large hail and damaging winds. A low pressure system has been sitting over Utah and is the culprit for the severe weather for the last two days. However, the system is finally starting to move eastward bringing all the ingredients for a severe outbreak along its path. With diurnal heating, dew points in the 60’s and 70’s, and CAPE values in the 3000-4500 J/kg range, strong instability is guaranteed. The SPC did notate the timing and model guidance of the event as being uncertain. If the storms form too early, or form too close together (non-discrete cells), then the threat will shift towards a wind threat and suppress the hail and tornado threat. Nonetheless, people in the high risk area need to stay weather alert. Also at risk for severe weather are Texas, Missouri, and even western New York and northern Ohio. Although the main threat for these areas are wind and hail, a tornado cannot be ruled out.
In the picture provided, the SPC has forecasted a 30% chance of seeing a tornado within 25 miles from any given point outlined in pink. The hatched lines on top of the colors means a 10% chance or greater of seeing a tornado with strengths of EF-2 to EF-5 on the Enhanced Fujita scale. Even though the pink area is the high risk, you can see that the threat is still present outside of the high risk. Please, stay safe and take shelter when needed. Stay up to date on severe weather by clicking here! ⓒ 2017 Meteorologist Brandie Cantrell Moderate Threat for Severe Weather in Oklahoma and Texas! (Photo Credit: Storm Prediction Center)5/16/2017  The Storm Prediction Center located in Norman, Oklahoma has issued a moderate threat for severe weather in western Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle. Potential threats are to include tornadoes, large hail, and damaging winds. The SPC has stressed that the greatest threat for strong tornadoes is western Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle. People in this area need to stay weather alert and prepare to take shelter when severe weather is close. Also under a severe threat, but not a moderate threat are to include southern Texas, through Oklahoma and Nebraska, to Wisconsin and Michigan. While a tornado cannot be ruled out, forecasts are showing intense squall lines with damaging winds to be the main threat in these areas. However, if conditions continue to enhance, the SPC has mentioned that central/eastern Kansas as well as Nebraska, Iowa and Missouri could be upgraded from enhanced to a moderate threat. For the northern states, the SPC has said the main threat will be damaging winds and hail, but cannot rule out an isolated tornado. The convective outlook for today is as follows:
...KS/NEB/IA/MO... Morning water vapor loop shows a deep trough over the western states, with a leading shortwave impulse rotating across NM. 12z model solutions remain consistent that a cluster of intense thunderstorms will develop by mid afternoon over parts of southwest KS as this shortwave trough approaches. Strong heating is occurring in this region, with afternoon MLCAPE values over 3000 J/kg and minimal cap. Initial storms will likely be capable of very large hail and isolated tornadoes, but it seems likely that rapid upscale growth into a fast-moving squall line will occur. This will enhance the risk of damaging winds as storms spread northeastward across central/eastern KS and into parts of NE/IA/MO. If storm-scale trends dictate, this area may be considered for an upgrade to MDT risk in later updates. ...Western OK/TX Panhandle... Low level moisture continues to stream rapidly northward into the TX Panhandle and western OK, with dewpoints now in the mid 60s across the region. Model forecast soundings by mid-late afternoon suggest strong instability will be present with MLCAPE values over 3500 J/kg and 8 C/km lapse rates. Isolated and discrete convection is expected to form along the dryline in the TX Panhandle and track northeastward through the mid-evening. A pocket of strong low-level shear is forecast to develop in this region, resulting in favorable hodograph structures for supercells capable of very large hail and strong tornadoes. Therefore have upgraded this area to MDT risk. ...MN/WI/Upper MI... A shortwave trough over the eastern Dakotas will track eastward and help to maintain scattered thunderstorms over parts of the western Great Lakes region. Breaks in the clouds will help to destabilize this area, and may lead to a few strong/severe storms later this afternoon and evening. Forecast soundings suggest sufficient vertical shear and CAPE to pose a risk of hail and damaging winds in the strongest cells. An isolated tornado is also possible. ..Hart/Dean.. 05/16/2017 Be sure to stay up-to-date on todays weather headlines by clicking here! ⓒ 2017 Meteorologist Brandie Cantrell |
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