Winter Storm Coming to Greater New York City Metro Area And Beyond! (credit: NWS New York, New York)
DISCUSSION: As a weak low pressure system begins its gradual process of intensification as it transitions from its current position in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico and on towards the East Coast of the United States, the national headlines will quickly be changing. As shown the lower graphic (attached above and courtesy of the NWS Storm Prediction Center located in Norman, Oklahoma), there is a plethora of precipitation breaking out to the north and east of the developing surface low which will soon begin to slowly emerge from the northeastern Gulf of Mexico. Based on the evidence provided by the middle graphic (courtesy of www.weathertap.com), you can see the mix of precipitation types dispersed throughout this developing low pressure system. More specifically, there is more frozen precipitation (i.e., snow, sleet, and/or freezing rain) on the northern side of this strengthening winter storm. However, on the southern side of this developing low pressure system the warmer air is having a more dominant influence and is thereby generating more rainfall.
It is worth noting that based the early position of this particular winter storm's low pressure center in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico, this horizontally-distanced change in precipitation type is not that unusual as far as weather history is concerned. This is chiefly due to the fact that during the earlier part of developing Winter-time low pressure system's life-cycles, you often find very strong warm air advection processes dominating on the southern half of the system or further which is a critical aspect of some of the more impressive winter storms throughout the all-time record books since this strong southerly flow provides the critical warm air advection which bolsters the potential for heavier snowfall accumulations during a given winter storm.
Since this winter storm is expected to track somewhat close to the classic coastal winter storm track, National Weather Service offices along much of the East Coast are very much "under the gun" with e-mails, conference calls, media hits, and typical forecasting responsibilities as they get deeper into "winter storm mode." One of jmany NWS offices in hte path of this impending wointer storm includes (but is not limited to) the National Weather Service office located in Upton, New York. As you will note from the upper-most graphic (courtesy of NWS Upton, NY), there is currently a high confidence forecast in place for accumulating snowfall across much of Long Island and beyond there as well! As also noted in the upper-most graphic (attached above), the worst impacts will be felt my many people across the NYC metro area and points to the east during the day on Saturday (01/07/2017) and will not conclude until after sunset tomorrow evening. Be sure to see the graphic above for the latest thinking on tomorrow's winter storm and stay tuned right here at the Global Weather and Climate Center for the latest information and winter storm updates!
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©2017 Meteorologist Jordan Rabinowitz