DISCUSSION: As what still remains to be Post-Tropical Storm Hermine continues to slowly travel northward just offshore from the Mid-Atlantic coastline, many questions have surfaced amongst people in the respective states which have been, are, or still still remain at least partially in this storm's path. The leading questions concern the future track of this storm based on many meteorologists explaining the high-degree of variability which still exists in terms of the various trajectories this post-tropical (and possibly soon to once again be tropical) system may take in the not-too-distant future (i.e., over the next 48 to 72 hours). Barring this high degree of uncertainty tied to the forecast at this time, there still remains a to be a legitimate reason for this uncertainty (as illustrated by the animated graphic below). More specifically, this animated graphical rendering of the current larger-scale synoptic flow regime in place across the Eastern United States, the western Atlantic Ocean, and parts of Atlantic Canada reflect the sheer complexity of the current weather pattern which will directly govern the future track of this system.
To be more precise, here is a quote from the original post written by Meteorologist Jeff Berardelli which provides a perfect explanation for the future of this storm. "Hermine is going to merge with another weather system which will re-energize and stall Hermine. The weather system it will merge with can be looked at as a weak front at the surface, an upper level low aloft and essentially a piece of the jet stream. Once Hermine merges and then emerges off the Virginia coast it will move over the very warm Gulf Stream waters. High pressure will build southward into New England and trap Hermine. So what you have is a storm of hurricane strength sitting just offshore of New Jersey/ Del Marva Sunday, Monday, Tuesday and perhaps longer. The coast will likely see winds gusts near hurricane force Sunday late-Monday (depending on how close the storm meanders), offshore waves of 25-35 feet and the worst impact of all will be significant, and potentially record coastal flooding from Southern NJ south to Virginia. Why potentially record setting? Well, when you have a storm of hurricane force barely moving for 3 days you continually pile up the water against the coast, back bays, nooks and crannies. Will the coastal flooding be equivalent to Sandy? No, not quite. But might it be the worst coastal flooding residents from South Jersey to Virginia have ever seen. Remember Sandy's worst coastal flooding was mainly from Atlantic City northward. Although we can't pinpoint the exact location of the impacts yet it does look like the coastal flooding will extend much further south."
Collectively, it reflects one of the more complicated forecast evolutions which a meteorologist anywhere will ever contend with and will eventually make for another avenue of excellent research work and future study. To learn more about other high-impact weather from across North America, be sure to click here!