DISCUSSION: As severe weather season approaches its peak in the southern Plains, severe weather outbreaks become increasingly more frequent and dangerous. The southern Plains, with an emphasis on Oklahoma and northern Texas, are poised to feel the impacts of severe weather throughout much of the day on Friday April 21st into Friday night. This is highlighted in the Storm Prediction Center’s severe weather outlook mentioned above with a slight risk of severe weather in these areas. As a storm system organizes over the middle of the U.S., conditions ahead of the storm will become favorable for severe weather. The warm front associated with the surface low will lift into the region raising dew point temperatures to greater than sixty degrees Fahrenheit south of the front. Ample heating and moisture associated with this warm front will create enough instability for severe thunderstorms Friday into Friday night in the forecast areas.
Based on analogues of previous events, the primary threat will be flash flooding, large hail, and damaging winds with a few tornadoes possible. Shown above is a severe weather outbreak during April 27th of 2013 from the CIPS analogue guidance (credit: St Louis University). This is by no means a forecast for the upcoming severe weather in the southern Plains, but a way to show the scope and magnitude of similar events in the past.
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©2017 Weather Forecaster Joseph DeLizio