DISCUSSION: As Post-Tropical Cyclone Hermine continues to slowly move off to the east (and eventually off to the north/northeast), there will be an increased threat for heavy rainfall and gusty winds along the New Jersey, New York, and parts of the New England coastline in the coming days. Currently, this Post-Tropical Cyclone which may re-gain hurricane status within the next 24 hours or so, is positioned roughly 130 miles to the east-southeast of Norfolk, Virginia and may approach the New York City metro area as well as points to the east within the next 48 to 72 hours. As a result of this projected forecast track, Tropical Storm Warnings have been issued for the NYC metro area as well as parts of New Jersey, Long Island, and southern Connecticut. Despite that these are only Tropical Storm Warnings (and regardless of the exact track which Hermine ends up taking), this sub-tropical/tropical storm will undoubtedly produce tremendous flooding, beach erosion, and even a minor storm surge along the coastlines of New Jersey and Long Island. Therefore, now is the time to making your preparations ahead of the deteriorating conditions which will likely begin to move in by around Sunday afternoon.
It is imperative to bear in mind that a Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions (i.e., sustained winds between 39 and 73 MPH with potentially higher gusts) are expected to move through the aforementioned region. Despite, this not appearing to be an overly dangerous situation over the next few days, there will almost certainly be an increasing threat for downed power lines and falling trees due to the persistent rainfall weakening the soil and therefore the root systems of trees. Hence, this strong low pressure system will bring an indirect storm threat to both life and property. Therefore, if you do not need to be outdoors during the worst of the tropical storm conditions as they move through parts of the tri-state area over the next few days, it would be in your best interest to avoid doing so.
Tropical storm conditions will most likely abate by around Wednesday afternoon (or possibly a little earlier or later on depending upon the exact forward speed of Hermine over the next couple of days). It is quite possible that during your travels over the next few days, you may encounter downed trees, downed power lines, and/or flooded roadways. If this becomes the case, be sure to navigate around these areas so as to remain out of harms way. If you are going to be flying in or out of the greater NYC metro area (e.g., JFK International, Laguardia, Newark, Islip, etc.) do your best to plan ahead NOW and call your travel carrier for information before this become more chaotic over the next 24 hours. Bottom line, this will not be a knock-out blow by any means but will certainly have a noticeable impact on local and national travel networks around the country so be safe and alwsys err on the side of caution these next few days. To learn more about other high-impact weather events from across North America, be sure to click here!