DISCUSSION: As of the last 24 to 48 hours, there have been a very destructive series of wildfires which have plagued many parts of the state of Tennessee. As captured in both the picture and video attached above, this has created a scary scene which truly looks like it came out of a horror movie. However, it is as real as it gets and unfortunately there have already been 7 confirmed casualties as a result of this large destructive wildfire across central/eastern Tennessee. This persistent wildfire has also already destroyed up to or possibly over 700 structures (i.e., which includes homes and businesses). This event has persisted for so long due to strong winds which were persistent during the morning and afternoon hours yesterday out ahead of the arrival of the cold front tied to the parent low pressure system previously centered over parts of the North-Central United States and is slowly beginning to push off to the east with time. It is worth noting that this parent low pressure system will continue slowing moving off to the east over the next 24 to 48 hours which will prevent the affected parts of Tennessee from receiving any additional rainfall to help further alleviate the destructive nature of this wildfire event. If you or someone you know lives in these parts of Tennessee or nearby surrounding areas, be sure to contact them and make sure they are safe and be sure that they stay with friends or family in safe locations far enough away from this dangerous situation.
To learn more about other high-impact weather events from across North America, be sure to click here! ~Meteorologist Jordan Rabinowitz
0 Comments
 DISCUSSION: As we enter the heart of the overnight period across the entire stretch of the contiguous United States, the threat from both severe and winter weather is far from over in many places. As far as the winter storm threat is concerned, much of Maine as well as other parts of semi-interior New England saw substantial snowfall totals pile up as sufficiently cold air worked its way into the slow moving precipitation shield which gradually worked through parts of coastal and semi-interior New England overnight last night and through much of the day! Many areas received up to between 3 and 6 inches with some spots with some areas receiving locally higher amounts in places where heavier snow banding persisted for longer periods of time between overnight last night and through much of today. In terms of the ongoing severe weather threat, many areas across parts of Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Tennessee, and Kentucky are and will remain to be "under the gun" with a very legitimate threat for strong winds, hail, frequent cloud-to-ground lightning, and even a few isolated (and potentially strong) tornadoes. Be sure to watch the brief video briefing above for details on this serious situation focused primarily across the southeastern United States!
To learn more about other high-impact weather events from across North America, be sure to click here! ~Meteorologist Jordan Rabinowitz   DISCUSSION: As noted in the brief video briefing above as well as being reflected by the recent radar screenshots captured (courtesy of www.weathertap.com), there is a very strong low pressure system delivering both a substantial winter blast to the northern Plains as well as a large dose of severe weather this evening to parts of the southeastern United States. Be sure to listen to the video briefing above for the latest on this ongoing late Fall-time extratropical low pressure system!
To learn more about other high-impact weather events from across North America, be sure to click here! ~Meteorologist Jordan Rabinowitz A Sound Perspective on Winter Storm #Blanche! (credit: Meteorologist Katie McCracken, BUFKIT)11/28/2016 DISCUSSION: With the first winter storm of the season well on its way to impact the northern Great Plains with mixed wintry precipitation, it’s time to take a general look at the differences between the various types of precipitation that can occur during winter storms. The National Weather Service has issued a Winter Storm Warning for most of western and central North Dakota, stating that “a wintry mix of rain, freezing rain, sleet, and snow will begin the storm this evening before changing into all snow later tonight.”
Why will the storm start with a wintry mix? What determines the precipitation type? For the most part, it depends on temperature. We all know that water freezes at 0°C (32°F), but that doesn’t mean that if it is 0° outside that it will automatically snow. The atmosphere is a little more complicated than that; temperatures at various heights in the atmosphere contribute to how precipitation falls. For instance, in Bismarck, North Dakota where the storm is expected to hit, the most recent temperature profile (Figure 1 above, retrieved using BUFKIT) shows that from the surface up to 750 millibars (roughly about 2 kilometers high), temperatures (red line) are above freezing. With this current temperature profile showing the lowest 200 mb above freezing, rain is expected since the air is too warm for snow. As the Bismarck WFO forecasted, colder air is expected to move in, allowing for temperatures at the surface to drop and forming a cold layer, which is seen above in Figure 2 (retrieved from BUFKIT). Precipitation that is falling around this time (3Z or 10 PM MST) will fall as freezing rain, since the snow will melt in the warm layer (the pocket of air that is above freezing and in this case, is above the cold layer at the surface). As long as this warm layer doesn’t get above 3°C (about 37°F), precipitation that is falling will initially fall as snow but melt partially in the warm layer, reaching the ground as freezing rain. However, if the warm layer is above 3°C, the snow will melt completely, becoming rain, and the cold layer at the surface would not be cold enough to refreeze the rain. Coincidentally, if the warm layer’s maximum temperature were between 0.25° and 1°C (about 32.5°-34°F), and the cold layer were still there, there would be the potential for sleet, which is possible at 5Z (or midnight MST) (see Figure 3, above). This wintry mix is forecast to continue into the night until around 7Z (or 2 AM MST), which is when the vertical temperature structure changes and becomes completely below 0°C at all levels, allowing for snow to fall. Snow will continue to fall, getting heavier at times, throughout Monday and Tuesday before tapering off on Wednesday. To learn more about other high-impact weather events from across North America, be sure to click here! -Meteorologist Katie McCracken  DISCUSSION: On behalf of all of us here at the Global Weather and Climate Center, we would like to wish all of you (our viewers) and your families/friends a very happy and a healthy Thanksgiving holiday! Attached above for all of your convenience is a comprehensive national Thanksgiving Day forecast update! If you are across the Northeast, North-Central, or Northwest United States today, be sure to take it easy as there are low pressure systems moving through the region which are producing a combination of rain and snow (depending on your location).
To learn more about other high-impact weather events from across North America, be sure to click here! ~Meteorologist Jordan Rabinowitz  Image 1.1 Courtesy: NCAR operated by UCAR DISCUSSION: As a deep low pressure system churns in the Northwest Pacific, Meteorologists are intrigued as the days near for verification of the next major system to hit the United States. As early as this weekend we will be seeing the intrusion of several low pressure systems that if verified are expected to bring cooler than average temperatures, rain and snow from the Western US through the Midwest. View Image 1.1, showing the 48 hour forecast valid for 1200 UTC Friday, November 25th with the large area of three low pressure systems off the coast of western Washington extending to northern California. Viewing image 1.2, the 102 hour GFS forecast valid 1800 UTC, Sunday November 27th, depicted 6 hour precipitation accumulation, if valid we could see another significant rain event in California, which would have brought rain to the area two weekends in a row. This same system is expected to bring rain to warmer low elevations of California, while eastern locations into Nevada could see snow, which would also extend into Idaho, Wyoming, Colorado, Utah and northern Arizona. To view additional maps and models visit the NOAA NWS Weather Prediction Center. Stay tuned to the Global Weather and Climate Center for more information on these low pressure systems and frontal movement that is expected to impact the western half of the United States later this week. ~Meteorologist Jessica Olsen  Image 1.2 Courtesy: NOAA NWS WPC  Image Courtesy: NOAA NWS WPC Something to Give Thanks for This Holiday Week in California! (Credit: Meteorologist Jessica Olsen)11/23/2016  Image Courtesy: Naval Research Laboratory DISCUSSION: With a trough of unsettled weather having made its way through the Pacific this past weekend California is hoping on what would be a third day of wet weather in a week. In what would be the equivalent of having a white Christmas, Californians are giving thanks this holidays season to the sporadic days of unprecedented precipitation. California is already seeing a brisk morning, starting off with temperatures 5-10 degrees cooler than the previous 24 hours. Some locations in Northern California seeing 30 degree readings, but predominantly in the 40's including the Bay Area. As a frontal system approaches clouds will be on the increase today and will increase the chances for precipitation as humidity peaks over 90%. Tuesday remained relatively dry as a weak upper level ridge is short lived and then pushed by the frontal passage. The frontal passage will bring cooler temperatures likely to the 5-10 degrees cooler than the area has been seeing. The image below from Twister Data depicts the cooler air creeping into the forecasted area. Further into the week another system is expected to push through Northern California which would bring cooler temperatures with the possibility for frost in northern locations. While too early to say, our next watchable timeframe will be into Sunday as some area in the West, in particular Wyoming and Colorado experience drastically cool temperatures into the end of November. ~Meteorologist Jessica Olsen  Image Courtesy: Twister Data   DISCUSSION: As the lake effect machine finally came to a close during the overnight hours into the day on Tuesday, many people began emerging from their homes to clean up from this length winter blast. There is no question that this lake effect snowfall event certainly outperformed the expectations of many forecasters from around the western to central New York region. However, as you will notice from the above graphic, there was an incredibly strong contrast in the snowfall totals extending from the immediate lake shore to several miles east of Lake Erie. It is worth noting that this was quite similar to the snowfall totals between the immediate eastern/southeastern lake shores and points further to the east of Lake Ontario. Though this is quite common in many lake effect snowfall events, this just goes to show how much of a difference a few miles often makes with seeing little to no measurable snowfall as opposed to a complete whiteout.
This is often a consequence of the ability for associated colder air parcels across the shorter axis of Lake Erie not having enough to destabilize over the warmer lake water. Hence, areas positioned closer to the lake-shore are only typically able to experience the beginning parts of the lake effect-based response to the colder air passing over the warmer lake. Alternatively, areas located further inland from the lake-shore are positioned more favorably for heavier lake effect snowfall potential. This is due to the stronger lake response caused by the colder air being moistened (i.e., modified) as the air parcels traverse either the short axis or more favorably the long axis of Lake Erie (or Lake Ontario) along with further enhancement by orographic enhancement by higher terrain positioned east/northeast of Lake Erie (or alternatively to the east, northeast, or southeast of Lake Ontario via the Tug Hill Plateau or the Mohawk Valley). To learn more about other high-impact weather events from across North America, be sure to click here! ~Meteorologist Jordan Rabinowitz 
DISCUSSION: As an incredibly intense and very persistent lake effect snow band continued to impact many parts of Central New York as well as parts of the Southern Tier region of New York. As this band continued to sit over areas including (but not limited to) Binghamton, New York, the snowfall continue to pile up quite rapidly during the past 24 to 36 hours or so. Moreover, during many prolonged periods of time, there were also substantially reduced visibilities in place as well which made for dangerous travel conditions both on the ground, on the rails, and also in the air (particularly during takeoffs and landings of commercial aircraft).
It is also worth noting that this single lake effect snowfall event has already delivered at least half of the total 2015-2016 seasonal snowfall total which certainly puts the event into stronger perspective. Feel free to watch the video attached above which provides a summary of this lake effect snowfall event as of late this morning. To learn more about other high-impact weather events from across North America, be sure to click here! ~Meteorologist Jordan Rabinowitz National Weather Summary and Lake Effect Snowfall Update! (credit: Meteorologist Jordan Rabinowitz)11/21/2016  DISCUSSION: Despite this part of November often shaping up to be a relatively quiet period across much of the United States historically, the last few days have proven to be quite eventful (especially across interior sections of the Northeast). Looking to the southwestern United States, a few weaker low pressure systems are currently facilitating pesky rain/snow showers across scattered sections of the intermountain west as well as southern portions of the southwestern United States. This is continuing to create some lighter travel headaches both on the ground and in the air, so do your best to plan accordingly before heading out for any personal and/or travel plans for today and/or tomorrow.
In turning our attention to the northeastern United States, it is a very different story as the "lake effect machine" off of Lake Ontario continues to pump in very heavy snow in many parts of Central New York throughout much of the morning and early afternoon hours. It is worth noting that this is expected to persist for at least the next 6 to 10 hours in many cases. As a result, some areas directly to the east of Lake Ontario (e.g., many places positioned both in and in the vicinity of the Tug Hill Plateau) could potentially see another 6 to 12 inches on top of what has already fallen during the last 48 hours and counting. That being said, as a result of this continued lake effect snowfall, travel conditions have been severely compromised (per the word of many colleagues situated both on the campus of the State University of New York at Oswego as well as a fellow GWCC staff member situated just outside of Syracuse, NY). Hence, if you must get out and about either today or within the next 6 to 12 hours, be sure to allow extra time to get where you need to be. Moreover, if you will be flying into or out of any regional and/or international airports located across western, northern, eastern, or central New York make sure that you call ahead or check online for delays and/or cancellations to plan accordingly. As per the words of earlier statements issued by both the Buffalo, New York as well as in Binghamton, New York National Weather Service offices, it is imperative to take these lake effect snow warnings at face-value and understand that aside from the heavy falling and blowing snow, it is also incredibly cold outside (coupled with a nasty wind chill) which is easily capable of creating life-threatening conditions if one is left outside and exposed to these elements for a prolonged period of time. For that reason, check out older friends/family during the day today across these regions, to make sure that they are safe , warm, and well-hydrated (as one should always be). To learn more about other high-impact weather events from across North America, be sure to click here! ~Meteorologist Jordan Rabinowitz National Weather Briefing on Lake Effect Snow And More! (credit: Meteorologist Jordan Rabinowitz)11/19/2016  DISCUSSION: As a strong low pressure system continues to push eastward over the next 24 to 48 hours, there will be a continued trend for strong cold air to surge deeper into the eastern-half of the United States. As a result of this increasingly stronger cold air advection, there will be also be a substantially greater likelihood of heavier lake effect snowfall to kick up off of both Lake Erie and Lake Ontario. It is worth noting that to the south and east of Lake Superior, many people are already experiencing heavy lake effect snowfall just to the east of Marquette, Michigan. In addition to the first significant lake effect snowfall event of the 2016-2017 winter season, there have also been a plethora of freeze warnings issued across many parts of the southern and southeastern United States. Be sure to listen to the brief video update above to learn more details about the next few days!
To learn more about other high-impact weather events from across North America, be sure to click here! ~Meteorologist Jordan Rabinowitz Winter Storm Creates A Whiteout In Minnesota! (credit: The Weather Channel via ZoomRadar)11/19/2016  DISCUSSION: As the strengthening low pressure system progressing across the North-Central United States continued its all-out assault on several million people during the course of the day today, winter truly had quite a strong grip. At the height of the winter storm today, a large portion of southern Minnesota and surrounding areas experienced quite persistent blizzard conditions which led to scenes such as the one captured above along MN-40 (located to the east of Madison, Minnesota). As seen in this image, not only was visibility reduced to absolutely life-threatening levels, but there was also little to no traction on the highways as heavy blowing and falling snow combined to bring most forms of travel down to a crawl at best. As illustrated by this and many other pictures emerging from this most recent winter blast on the North-Central United States, it is always imperative to have tremendous respect for the natural power and ferocity associated with ground conditions which commonly unfold in the northwest quadrant of classic winter-time cyclones.
To learn more about other high-impact weather events from across North America, be sure to click here! ~Meteorologist Jordan Rabinowitz Meteorologist Joe Cioffi Breaks Down Current Winter Storm Impacting Parts of the Northern Plains!11/17/2016  DISCUSSION: Over the past few days, there has been an increasingly larger amount of outpour from various national news networks concerning the threat for a fairly high-impact winter storm to break out across parts of the North-Central United States. As of earlier in the day on Thursday, a fairly large amount of both surface-based as well as more elevated precipitation began to quickly break out across parts of Colorado, Wyoming, South Dakota, Nebraska, etc. As rain and snow broke out in different parts of the northern Plains in accordance with the respective positions of both the warm and cold fronts tied to this strengthening low pressure system, a winter storm quickly took shape. As of this evening and heading through the overnight hours, the worst of this winter storm is expected to be felt most across parts of northern Nebraska, eastern South Dakota, and much of Minnesota. In some parts of the aforementioned states, blizzard warnings were issued much earlier yesterday in advance of the confident projections for heavy falling/blowing snow with very low visibilities being likely for a prolonged period of time. Be sure to watch Joe's video above which also details an early outlook for the foreseeable future; including an early Thanksgiving Day forecast!
To learn more about other high-impact weather events from across North America, be sure to click here! ~Meteorologist Jordan Rabinowitz  Image Courtesy: NOAA DISCUSSION: Well into the heart of November and while it's to be expected we are and can be expecting interesting November weather. Some contribution to these interesting changes are the addition of a mild La Niña, which is evident in the Southern United States as they experience an increase in wildfire activity. In the next 60 or so hours we should expect the jet stream to dip in portions of the Pacific and mid-Western United States. Earlier this week a deep ridging was seen in the southern US, but as a significant low pressure system moves in we see heavy changes throughout the continental US. This is apparent in states like Arizona experiencing higher than average temperatures, Monday/Tuesday. With the dip of the cooler air into southern portions of the United States, and the presence of a large frontal system, we are starting to see the beginning of changing temperatures with the presence of precipitation. The mid-west will expect to see cooler temperatures due to a strong low pressure system which will bring the first significant snowfall over the Rockies and into the Plains. Behind the low pressure system it will be possible for heavy snow in the western regions of the system as cold air sweeps through the middle portions of the United States. Ahead of the system there will be warmer than average temperatures as it moves into the Northeast. Parts of California and the eastern Pacific should expect to see some cooler, more seasonal temperatures, with the possibility of some precipitation in the form of rain, with snow in the higher elevations. This would be much needed in California as many areas still suffering the dire effects of drought. Areas of the southern US will likely see cooler, more seasonal temperatures such as Yuma, which experienced a peak high of 90 on Tuesday, November 15th, with todays predicted of 71, a large change due to the low pressure system. Stay tuned for additional information from the Global Weather and Climate Center on this seasons's first large weather changes seen throughout the US! ~Meteorologist Jessica Olsen  Image Courtesy: NOAA Smoke Plumes Engulf Parts of the Southeastern U.S. (credit: UW-Madison SSEC via NWS Charleston, SC)11/17/2016  DISCUSSION: As a direct result of a persistently dry and breezy weather pattern across parts of the interior Southeastern United States, there was a continued impact from ongoing localized brush fires which erupted across far northern sections of Georgia, South Carolina, and far western sections of North Carolina. As you can clearly see in this True-Color image which was captured much earlier in the day on Wednesday, you can clearly see the long-distant trajectories of the associated smoke plumes from these fires. They are distinguishable from other nearby cloud-cover due to the fact that you can see the smoke plumes as the semi-transparent milky-white plumes oriented from northwest-to-southeast. It is worth noting that despite the small size of these smoke plumes, many people with respiratory issues (e.g., asthma, emphysema, etc.) have been affected the smoke-filled air across much of eastern Georgia, nearly all of South Carolina, and southern/eastern North Carolina.
To learn more about other high-impact weather events from across North America, be sure to click here! ~Meteorologist Jordan Rabinowitz Gusty Conditions Impact Areas Just East of Lake Erie! (credit: Meteorologist Geoff Cornish)11/12/2016  DISCUSSION: As a cold front moved through the eastern Great Lakes region during the Thursday/Friday timeframe, the stage was perfectly set for prolonged gusty conditions across areas downwind (i.e., to the east) of Lake Erie. As seen in the graphic above (courtesy of Meteorologist Geoff Cornish), you clearly can see how in cities anywhere from Erie, PA to Dunkirk, NY there were wind gusts as high as 35 to 50 MPH. Though these areas are very accustomed to experiencing post-frontal weather conditions comprised of prolonged gusty conditions (i.e., with or without precipitation), it is still always impressive to see long-duration windy conditions impact areas to the east of the Great Lakes.
This often occurs due to the fact that as a cold front moves through areas in the vicinity of the Great Lakes (whether it is across the western or eastern Great Lakes), there is a strong tendency for there to be a nearby high pressure system. Due to the close proximity of the associated high pressure system in the wake of the passing low pressure system, this creates a stronger pressure gradient which often facilitates long-duration gusty conditions which can induce strong wave action along the eastern coastlines of Lake Erie, Lake Ontario, Lake Michigan, Lake Huron, and Lake Superior. Hence, based on the conditions in place, this was a relatively straight-forward weather forecast to anticipate from the standpoint of operational forecasting! To learn more about other high-impact weather events from across North America, be sure to click here! ~Meteorologist Jordan Rabinowitz 
DISCUSSION: As a weak area of low pressure continued to slowly move through the Central Plains through the course of today, increasing amounts of moisture and instability built into the greater Iowa, Nebraska, and Missouri region. As a result of this warm-air advection which was responsible for the aforementioned increase in regional moisture and instability, there was an increasingly more favorable environment for the development of strong thunderstorms. As the afternoon began to come to a close and evening started setting in, a strong segment of thunderstorms quickly blossomed across parts of far western Missouri. By just after 6:00 PM, there was a quick but intense thunderstorm segment which moved through Columbia, Missouri as well as points both to the west and east of the city of Columbia. Attached above is part of the storm captured by myself as I stood just outside of my apartment during the latter portion of the most intense part of this particular thunderstorm event. As always, when you hear thunder, you should always be sure to seek adequate shelter immediately since if you can hear thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning.
To learn more about other high-impact weather events from across North America, be sure to click here! ~Meteorologist Jordan Rabinowitz |
Archives
June 2019
|
RSS Feed