 Image Courtesy: RadarScope Pro DISCUSSION: It's no surprise that any forecast regarding precipitation in California has become increasingly viewed. California again is finally breaking the barrier with another day of expected precipitation amid its much televised drought. This morning, California is expecting precipitation brought by a cold front sweeping through upper/central portions of the state. As the front makes its way through Northern California it will bring widespread showers with increased chances of an isolated thunderstorm. This front is associated with a mid-upper level low,which had been questionable nearly 10 days ago according to models but as the days grew closer, the consensus on location and strength proved correct. With the frontal passage. there will likely be lingering showers, but we should expect to see a drier evening into Halloween. Northern California won't go entirely without some chances of precipitation into Halloween as the low moves further inland. Temperatures are expected to be within normal mid to upper 60's, with a swift southwest breeze gusting to 30 mph. Precipitation totals are not expected to be significant within the next day or so with totals at 1/4 to 1/2 inch in locations, possibly more in the Santa Cruz Mountains and Northern Bay area. ~Meteorologist Jessica Olsen  Image Courtesy: RadarScope Pro
0 Comments
Weather-torial... During severe weather situations, the media (and the NWS) are quick to note the number of people (in the 10’s of millions) who are, “under the gun.” So, given the weather forecast for the next week, it is with great pleasure that I announce the following - some 200 million people across the U.S. will be affected by mostly good weather!… To read the full story, click here - http://www.weatherworks.com/lifelong-learning-blog/?p=1053 © 2016 H. Michael Mogil To learn more about how to read/interpret various maps and charts used by meteorologists, be sure to click here!  
DISCUSSION: As a strengthening low pressure system slowly departed the Northeast through the course of the day today, a widespread combination of rain, sleet, and snow overspread much of the interior Northeast corridor. Across parts of New Hampshire, Vermont, and northern New York there were pockets of rather heavy snow which are still continuing in some places as of this evening. As the overnight hours press on, the intensity of the associated snow bands will begin to slowly taper off as daybreak dawns on the interior Northeast tomorrow morning. However, by that point in time, some areas may still pick up a coating to a few wet inches of new snowfall before all is said and done. It is important to point out that although it may seem as though this is an early snowfall event for this part of the country, it is not unusual at all to see even light snowfall accumulations this early in the season across interior sections of the Northeast.
To learn more about other high-impact weather events from across the Northeast, be sure to click here! ~Meteorologist Jordan Rabinowitz Scary Day In Northwest Oregon This Past Friday! (credit: Tyler Ryals via The Weather Channel)10/18/2016 
DISCUSSION: As a series of powerful low pressure systems made their way towards the Northwest United States at the start of last weekend, there were increasingly favorable conditions for the development of strong to severe thunderstorms capable of producing tornadoes. This was predominantly the result of a combination of factors which included: very pronounced wind shear (i.e., a quick change in the direction as well as a notable increase in wind speed with increasing height in the atmosphere), low lifting condensation level heights (i.e., effectively a particular low height at which air parcels were able to reach their point of condensation) which is a favorable ingredient for facilitating tornadic thunderstorms, and sufficiently strong low/mid-level atmospheric instability.
Though the Pacific Northwest is not typically noted for a strong reputation with experiencing tornadic thunderstorms, this ended up being the situation which unfolded near the city of Manzanita, Oregon. As shown in the footage attached above (courtesy of Tyler Ryals), a waterspout which ultimately moved ashore briefly as an EF-2 tornado did form just offshore from the city of Manzanita, OR on the evening of 14 October 2016. Thus, the atmosphere did indeed become conducive enough for the generation of a tornado (despite its brief duration which would naturally be expected in this part of the United States based on longer-term climatological data). Nonetheless, despite the overall event not being as prolific as originally projected in various regional forecasts, this was still an important small-scale phenomena which bore serious consequences on people in and around the city of Manzanita. To learn more about other high-impact weather events from across North America, be sure to click here! ~Meteorologist Jordan Rabinowitz  DISCUSSION: As reflected by the graphic above (courtesy of Meteorologist Sheldon Kusselson), you can see how and why there is projected to be such record warmth across the Great Plains region of the United States! This is a great read to say the least! To learn more about other interesting weather-related content from across North America, be sure to click here!
~Meteorologist Sheldon Kusselson Can We Expect Tropical Storm Otto to Develop Soon? (Credit: NOAA, National Hurricane Center)10/17/2016 DISCUSSION: While Hurricane Nicole looms in the northern Atlantic Ocean, a new tropical disturbance develops off the southeast coast of the Bahamas. According to the National Hurricane Center, the system was observed as an unsettled area of low pressure containing distinctive cloud coverage and disorganized thunderstorms. For the next 5 days, there remains a 60% possibility for the disturbance to develop into a tropical cyclone as it continues to interact with warm tropical waters. If upper-level wind shear provides a conducive environment which supports tropical cyclone formation, then the 15th Atlantic storm would be named Tropical Storm Otto. In the meantime, storm activity will continue to be monitored throughout the remainder of the week. To learn more about other interesting weather content from across North America, be sure to click here! ~Weather Forecaster Aisha Murphy  Southerly Flow May Impact Game 1 of the MLB NLCS! (credit: Meteorologist Jordan Rabinowitz)10/15/2016  DISCUSSION: As Game 1 of the National League Championship Series is played this evening between the Chicago Cubs and the Los Angeles Dodgers at Wrigley Field, weather may have an impact on the outcome. As a result of a mature low pressure system slowly moving eastward across parts of Central Canada, an associated cold front is slowly moving eastward across the Central United States. As a result of this cold front's position, there is decent southerly flow of 10 to 15 kts in the vicinity of the Chicago metropolitan area (with stronger winds aloft). The presence of this southerly flow may have an impact on some deeper fly balls hit sufficiently high by way of them carrying further out to left, left-center, or center field (depending on what direction specific fly balls are hit by Cubs or Dodgers batters). The reason for this factor is due to the fact that home plate is oriented on the south side of the field; while the outfield is oriented in a northerly-to-northeasterly direction which is conducive for fly balls carrying deeper than usual in the outfield.
Within the graphic above (courtesy of www.weather.rap.ucar.edu), you will denote the red-circled region with the star icon (which represents the approximate location of Wrigley Field located in Chicago, Illinois). Hence, in and around the star (representing the approximate position of Wrigley Field) you can denote the aforementioned southerly flow which may support the presence of fly balls which may carry more than average during the game this evening. Should be interesting to see how these windier conditions affect the outcome of the game and possibly the series as it progresses. To learn more about other interest weather content from across North America, be sure to click here! ~Meteorologist Jordan Rabinowitz  DISCUSSION: As shown in the discussion above (courtesy of Meteorologist Sheldon Kusselson), a serious threat for both dangerous winds, heavy rainfall, and even severe weather will remain to be a very real threat for much of the Pacific Northwest through this weekend! Read the details in the graphic above for the latest thinking on how things will pan out over the next few days!
To learn more about other high-impact weather events from across North America, be sure to click here! ~Meteorologist Sheldon Kusselson DISCUSSION: On Friday October 14th, a powerful storm pounded the Pacific Northwest and rapidly accumulated vast rainfall amounts in the northern corridor of Oregon. The Portland International Airport observed a staggering precipitation total of approximately 0.39 inches between 5:20 p.m. PDT and 7:53 p.m. PDT. Majority of the surrounding locations near Portland Metro experienced a swath of heavy rainfall which flooded low-lying areas and major highways (above imagery). On Saturday, another coastal low-pressure system is anticipated to slam the Pacific Northwest between the late morning and early afternoon hours. The storm is likely to generate periods of intense precipitation and dangerous wind conditions for locations in the vicinity of Portland, Oregon. The NWS Portland Forecast Office has issued a High Wind Warning for October 15, 11:00 a.m. until October 16, 12:00 a.m. Between 11 am and 8pm, southerly wind speeds of up to 50 mph (near the Pacific coast) could potentially produce 75-90 mph wind gusts. Further inland, 25-40 mph wind speeds could still pose a devastating threat due to the possibility for 45-60 mph wind gusts in locations near Salem, Oregon (image below). To learn more about other high-impact weather events from across North America, be sure to click here! ~Weather Forecaster Aisha Murphy   DISCUSSION: Across the Pacific Northwest, there is a near-historic rain/wind event beginning to unfold courtesy of multiple meteorological factors coming together (including but not limited to the remnants of former Typhoon Songda as well as a strong extratropical low pressure system). That being said, the impacts along the immediate coastlines of both Washington and Oregon will be pronounced tonight and into the day tomorrow. Hence, it is worth watching the short video briefing above for the latest on this developing situation!
To learn more about other high-impact weather events from across North America, be sure to click here! ~Meteorologist Jordan Rabinowitz Eastern Seaboard Post-Tropical Cyclone Matthew Update (credit: Meteorologist Jessica Olsen)10/9/2016  Image Courtesy: VIIRS data from NASA-NOAA's Suomi NPP satellite DISCUSSION: Hurricane Matthew has come and gone, now it is time to assess damage and continually assist those in need of aid.
Georgia - Storm surge has left many roads inundated and unoccupied as the state cleans up post-passage. With 3 deaths in the state attributed to Matthew, police and emergency personnel are urging residents to proceed with caution. As of Saturday, nearly 400,000 residents were left without power. Tybee Island remaining of concern as its low-lying barrier island closed to residents, but to some surprise, destruction not nearly as feared. Cleanup according to several officials is expected to take weeks to possibly months. South Carolina - Similarly several roads in the state flooded and contributed 3 deaths due to such flooding. Recent reports indicating Civil War era cannonballs washing ashore at Folly Beach. Governor Nikki Haley stating more than 800,000 without power as Matthew dumped record breaking precipitation with storm surge again being the largest issue for flooding. North Carolina - With 8 killed amid severe flooding, this state was another not immune to the effects of storm surge. Precipitation totals include 8 inches in the Raleigh/Durham area with nearly 18 inches recorded in Wilmington. The flooding conditions are expected to continue thought Monday. By Sunday morning according to The Charlotte Observer, 900 water rescues have been made with 562 of them coming from Cumberland County. Virginia and North Carolina are expected to see lingering effects as Matthew continues its journey in the Atlantic. As of 2100 UTC, the National Hurricane Center has discontinued all tropical storm warnings following the downgrade to post-tropical cyclone Matthew. For continued updates, discussion, forecasts and more on Matthew and a host of other meteorological topics visit the Global Weather and Climate Center! ~Meteorologist Jessica Olsen  DISCUSSION: Despite having the 5:00 PM EDT advisory from the National Hurricane Center included and discussed in the short video briefing above, the 8:00 PM EDT advisory shows Hurricane Matthew still having maximum sustained winds of 75 mph. Thus, Matthew is still weakly holding on as a minimal hurricane; though still producing wind gusts in excess of 85-90 mph which is still making for hazardous travel conditions across far northeastern South Carolina and eastern North Carolina.
To learn more about the latest information pertaining to Hurricane Matthew, click on the video above! To learn more about other high-impact weather events from across North America, be sure to click here! ~Meteorologist Jordan Rabinowitz 
DISCUSSION: Following the passage of Hurricane Matthew, residents of Florida experienced up to Category 4 winds, pummeling towns to expected destruction. President Obama urged to residents "Do not be a hold out here because we can always replace property, but we can't replace lives." This statement all coming after Florida Governor Rick Scott indicating, "We are very concerned about storm surge, and the worst effects are still likely to come," after his first conference several days ago stating, "Unfortunately, this is going to kill people."
Through Friday evening, Hurricane Matthew brought over 6 inches of precipitation to Jacksonville, including record levels of the St. Johns river, a city of much concern to state officials even after the expanded evacuation order issued Thursday. Storm surge was of major interest Friday and Saturday as Matthew continues to push through the Eastern seaboard. Storm surge has contributed to the loss of portions of state road A1A in Flagler County. Access is currently blocked to all beach areas including, many roadways flooded in St. Augustine. The hurricane was expected to produce precipitation amounts of 6-12 inches, with predictions of storm surge exceeding 8-12 feet. Reports of massive storm surge flooding in area that include Port Orange, St. Augustine, Daytona Beach, and Jacksonville Beach. Stay tuned to additional reports as Hurricane Matthew continues its path Northeast, bringing a trail of destruction even after is downgrade to Category 1. View interesting photos and tweets from storm damage below! - Meteorologist Jessica Olsen
 DISCUSSION: As Hurricane Matthew continues moving northward through the evening and overnight hours, major impacts will continue being felt across sections of coastal and semi-interior Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina! These impacts will predominantly be in the form of heavy rainfall (and consequential flooding across the aforementioned regions) coupled with strong winds (i.e., sustained winds between roughly 70 and 85 mph with some higher gusts periodically) and a formidable storm surge. Therefore, if you do not need to be out and about both tonight and tomorrow, try to avoid doing so to the best of your ability.
For more details on the current status of Hurricane Matthew and what the future holds for both the track and intensity of this hurricane, be sure to watch the informative video update attached above! To learn more about this and other high-impact weather events from across North America, be sure to click here! ~Meteorologist Jordan Rabinowitz DISCUSSION: As of the 11:00 PM EDT update from the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Matthew remains to be a very dangerous storm with maximum sustained winds of 130 mph with a minimum central pressure of 939 mb. Thus, it remains to be a very real and serious threat for coastal and slightly inland areas across eastern and northeastern Florida! Thus, it will continue to remain a very rough and tiring night for many across eastern Florida! As noted in the top video briefing update narrated by myself (Meteorologist Jordan Rabinowitz), the track is fairly certain for the next 24 hour or so; though increases in overall uncertainty beyond that point! Listen to learn more and hear an important message from Senior Hurricane Specialist (Bryan Norcross) from The Weather Channel.
To learn more about other high-impact weather events from across North America, be sure to click here! ~Meteorologist Jordan Rabinowitz A short while ago, the NWS Miami office provided it’s latest thinking on the timing of the onset of hurricane and tropical storm force winds across south Florida. Rob Molleda, the Warnings Coordination Meteorologist for the office, emphasized that, “these are on the earlier side and are for SUSTAINED (at least 1 minute in duration) winds. Gusts… To read the full story, click here - http://www.weatherworks.com/lifelong-learning-blog/?p=1031
© 2016 H. Michael Mogil To learn more about other high-impact weather events affecting North America, be sure to click here! Evening Update on Hurricane Matthew! (credit: Meteorologist Jordan Rabinowitz & The White House)10/5/2016  DISCUSSION: Attached below is personal video update on Hurricane Matthew (top video) and then a video briefing update on the situation surrounding Hurricane Matthew from President Obama as he continues to work with directors of several agencies which included (but were not limited to) FEMA, NOAA, and the National Guard. Be sure to watch both short video updates for the latest information! To learn more about other high-impact weather events (including Hurricane Matthew as it approaches the Southeastern United States), be sure to click here! ~Meteorologist Jordan Rabinowitz
 The latest National Hurricane Center’s (NHC) projected track for Matthew brings him very close to the Florida east coast near Jupiter Beach, FL by early Friday (Fig. 1). Given the size of the tropical force wind zone, locations closest to the east coast of Florida will be at the highest risk of hurricane force winds, while many inland locales will experience tropical storm force winds.…To read the full story, click here - http://www.weatherworks.com/lifelong-learning-blog/?p=1025
© 2016 H. Michael Mogil To learn more about other high-impact weather events affecting North America, be sure to click here!  DISCUSSION: Be sure to watch the brief early morning video update (attached below) on Hurricane Matthew as the journey towards the Southeastern United States begins! To learn more about other high-impact weather events from across North America, be sure to click here! ~Meteorologist Jordan Rabinowitz DISCUSSION: NASA’s International Space Station (ISS) released incredible camera footage (above) of Hurricane Matthew which was caught looming in the Caribbean. The imagery displays Matthew’s distinctive eye-wall. Yesterday, the eye of the storm accompanied calm wind speeds and a central minimum pressure around 950mb. More strikingly, the storm itself packed catastrophic maximum sustained wind speeds of up to 140 mph as it slammed the northeastern coast of Cuba and western Haiti. Devastating storm impacts included heavy rainfall amounts, torrential flooding, storm surge and extreme wind damage. Currently, Matthew is expected to approach the Bahamas by Wednesday night and the eastern coastlines of Florida by Thursday.
To learn more about other high-impact weather events from across North America, be sure to click here! ~Weather Forecaster Aisha Murphy  Discussion: Southeast Idaho experienced a rare tornado warning tonight. Even more interesting is that this occurred synonymously with winter weather advisory. This is unusual as tornado warnings typically are issued in areas that are under severe thunderstorm or tornado watches. Bannock, Bingham, Bonneville, Caribou, and Teton counties were under a winter weather advisory when a severe thunderstorm became capable of producing a tornado, thus prompting the tornado warning for the previously mentioned counties. Luckily, there have been no reports of a tornado for those areas. In addition, the storm has weakened below severe limits and was thus no longer capable of producing a tornado, allowing the warning to expire. However, the storm is still capable of producing half-inch hail, up to 40 mph winds, and heavy rain, prompting a special weather statement. Although this storm ultimately failed to produce a reported tornado, this warning is noteworthy because Idaho does not experience many tornadoes annually, since 1954 Idaho has only had 203 reported tornadoes (an average of about 3 to 4 per year). The storm occurring during a winter weather advisory may be unusual, but there is an explanation for this occurrence. That is because a warm front moved through the area during the morning hours, with the southeastern part of Idaho being in the warm sector ahead of a strong cold front projected to arrive during the evening hours. Showers and thunderstorms developed ahead of this cold front during the afternoon when instability was present, allowing these storms to become severe. After these storms dissipate, the threat will then shift to a low pressure system which will move into the area early Monday morning which will bring colder air and measurable snowfall (3 to 6 inches) to areas above 7000 feet with locally heavier amounts possible. Thus, replacing the severe weather threat with the threat of winter weather conditions. These storms will make travel difficult, so people in the affected areas should be prepared to proceed with caution tomorrow. To learn more about other high-impact weather events from across North America, be sure to click here! ~Meteorologist Noah Hardy |
Archives
March 2022
|
RSS Feed