Large Hail, Damaging Winds and a Possible Tornado! (credit: NOAA, GOES-16, College of DuPage NEXLAB)4/21/2017   DISCUSSION: Severe weather has been a threat in the forecast on Friday, April 21st, in the southern Plains for the past few days. The two images above from the GOES-16 satellite depict today’s convection in great detail both in the visible and the mid-level water vapor imageries. Thunderstorms began to develop this morning overspreading Oklahoma and Texas. As the day progressed, instability increased and convection blossomed in western Arkansas where a few thunderstorm wind gusts were reported. Currently the SPC’s preliminary storm reports features multiple wind and hail reports. These numbers are expected to increase as the SPC in Norman, Oklahoma recently updated the forecast to include a tornado watch which states, “A few tornadoes possible. Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible. Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible”. These areas include northeast Texas, southeast Oklahoma, and southwest Arkansas.
A moderate amount of CAPE accompanied with enough wind shear will produce severe weather in these areas and hence the threat for isolated tornadoes. A dangerous night is on the way for many. If in the forecast areas, be on the lookout for the latest watches and warnings. (Disclaimer: This is our experimental GOES-16 data viewer. This page, its features and contents are currently in a phase of rapid and active development. The data from GOES-16 is in a provisional state and is undergoing testing and nothing is final.) To learn more about other high-impact weather events occurring across North America, be sure to click here! ©2017 Weather Forecaster Joseph DeLizio
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  DISCUSSION: As severe weather season approaches its peak in the southern Plains, severe weather outbreaks become increasingly more frequent and dangerous. The southern Plains, with an emphasis on Oklahoma and northern Texas, are poised to feel the impacts of severe weather throughout much of the day on Friday April 21st into Friday night. This is highlighted in the Storm Prediction Center’s severe weather outlook mentioned above with a slight risk of severe weather in these areas. As a storm system organizes over the middle of the U.S., conditions ahead of the storm will become favorable for severe weather. The warm front associated with the surface low will lift into the region raising dew point temperatures to greater than sixty degrees Fahrenheit south of the front. Ample heating and moisture associated with this warm front will create enough instability for severe thunderstorms Friday into Friday night in the forecast areas.
Based on analogues of previous events, the primary threat will be flash flooding, large hail, and damaging winds with a few tornadoes possible. Shown above is a severe weather outbreak during April 27th of 2013 from the CIPS analogue guidance (credit: St Louis University). This is by no means a forecast for the upcoming severe weather in the southern Plains, but a way to show the scope and magnitude of similar events in the past. To learn more about other high-impact weather events occurring across North America, be sure to click here! ©2017 Weather Forecaster Joseph DeLizio Analyzing Long-Lived Stationary Supercell Thunderstorm over North Texas! (credit: GOES-16)4/14/2017 
DISCUSSION: As of earlier in the evening hours on Friday, a very intense area of thunderstorms fired up across parts of northern Texas. As this unfolded, the regional conditions remained relatively conducive for the rapid development of supercell thunderstorms capable of producing tornadoes. As the evening progressed, one particular thunderstorm continued to persist in its existence for several hours which has consequently led to incredibly heavy rainfall totals. This supercell persisted as a result of the fact that the regional atmospheric environment was characterized by vertically-veering winds with height which allowed the supercell to persist for several hours. Hence, the heavy rainfall, hail, cloud-to-ground lightning, and tornado threat persisted as well and made for a very dangerous night for many people living across northern Texas!
To learn more about other high-impact weather events occurring across North America, be sure to click here! ©2017 Meteorologist Jordan Rabinowitz  An active pattern is on the way for much of the eastern U.S. over the next 7 days. As depicted in the figure from the Weather Prediction Center, a widespread area of 1-3 inches of precipitation (with higher amounts possible) will impact regions up and down the eastern seaboard including the southern and eastern Great Lakes and into southeast Canada. This heavy precipitation will be associated with two low pressure systems that will track into the eastern U.S. The first of the two storm systems produced severe weather including dangerous tornadoes on April 2nd and continued to produce severe weather and heavy rain in the southeast on April 3rd. The first storm system will continue to track northeast into the Midwest and Great Lakes spreading healthy precipitation amounts throughout the Midwest and Northeast. Some of this precipitation will fall as snow in interior New England. The second low pressure system will move into the southern U.S., with another threat for localized severe weather. This system looks to follow a similar track as the first system with heavy precipitation in comparable areas. Enough sufficiently-cold air is currently forecast such that snowfall is anticipated in and around the Great Lakes. These two systems will produce the precipitation totals in inches (as reflected in the Weather Prediction Center’s 7-day outlook attached above). As the second system continues to lift away from the Northeast, a potent low pressure system is forecast to slam the Northwest U.S. coast with heavy rain and several feet of mountain snow possible. An incredible wet season for the West Coast that has wiped out most drought conditions looks to continue for at least the next seven days. One must ponder, how long will this type of pattern continue for? For continued coverage on the next several forecast low pressure systems, be sure to visit Global Weather and Climate Center! ©2017 Weather Forecaster Joseph DeLizio |
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