DISCUSSION: As of this earlier this evening, Tropical Storm Nate continues to be very disorganized with a substantial amount of convection on the far east side of the circulation. Having said that, the forecast track will most likely have the center of Nate moving north-northwestward with time. This track will bring the center of Nate over the far western Caribbean Sea and then over far eastern sections of the Yucatan Peninsula. After that time, the best future forecast track consensus suggests that Nate will emerge over the central Gulf of Mexico. By that point in time, Nate will be traversing over very warm ocean water across the central Gulf of Mexico by way of the Loop Current. The Loop Current is an oscillating current of particularly warm water in the upper-most part of the central Gulf of Mexico which often allows tropical cyclones (TC) to intensify (give all other factors are conducive for TC intensification) and sometimes rapidly intensify.
After a day or two moving northward across the Gulf of Mexico, the forecast track of Tropical Storm Nate (and possibly at that time Hurricane Nate) will bring this tropical storm towards the central U.S. Gulf Coast which will more than likely induce additional coastal/inland flooding concerns. Therefore, for that reason, many coastal evacuation orders have already been given out ahead of the approach of what may ultimately be Hurricane Nate.
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©2017 Meteorologist Jordan Rabinowitz