 Tropical cyclone of Category-4 Kyarr churning through the Arabian Sea. (NASA)
TC Kyarr helped propel 2019 into the top spot for the most active cyclone season on record in the North Indian Ocean basin and it is the first storm of such intensity in the Arabian Sea in the last 12 years. Kyarr is the seventh named storm in the basin this season, marking the first time more than half a dozen had spun up in a single season since 1998. The Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE), which is a measure of how much kinetic energy a cyclone is dissipating through its winds was found to reach 53.9 units for the year 2019, which exceeded the average ACE (~10 units) for the North Indian Ocean. The highest number of tropical cyclone days was recorded to be 5.25 days in 2007 and 1999, but with TC Kyarr, the 2019 tally exceeded this record. Kyarr also set the record for the lowest barometric pressure ever observed in this part of the basin. Interestingly, the positive phase of the Indian Ocean Dipole (a large overturning circulation in the tropical atmosphere over the Indian Ocean) which implies warmer than normal ocean temperatures in the Arabian Sea and west North Indian Ocean might have helped fuel more intense storms in this region this year. Since cooler sea surface temperatures exist over Australia and the Maritime Continent further east, this causes the rising motion to the west, with subsidence or sinking to the eastern part of the Indian Ocean basin. That rising motion enhances convection, rainfall and thunderstorm activity, with relatively weak upper-level winds therefore allowing convective activity which in turn creates a tropical disturbance. The Indian Ocean Dipole’s positive amplitude has been near-record strength this year, leading to active monsoon season across India as well. On the other end, father east in Australia, prolonged drought has been parching the continent. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology predicts the Dipole amplitude to strengthen in the next 1-2 months. This unprecedented shift in tropical cyclone activity led to a 2017 modeling study by Murakami et al. which concluded that anthropogenic climate change had increased the probability of powerful post-monsoon tropical cyclones over the Arabian Sea, and that this risk would increase further in the future--with potentially damaging consequences to the nations bordering the Arabian Sea. In a 2018 review paper by 11 hurricane scientists (Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change Assessment: Part I. Detection and Attribution), all 11 authors concluded that the balance of evidence suggests that there was a detectable increase in post-monsoon extremely severe cyclonic storms in the Arabian Sea during the 1998 – 2015 period; 8 of 11 authors concluded that human-caused climate change contributed to the increase. To learn more about other high-impact weather events occurring across the Indian Ocean and Asia, be sure to click here! © 2019 Oceanographer Daneeja Mawren
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 DISCUSSION: A monsoon is defined by a seasonal reversal in wind direction. A consequence of this wind direction reversal is often a large seasonal change in rainfall. For example, over India and southeast Asia during the summer, the land heats up more/faster than the surrounding water, leading to the development of relatively low pressure over the land. This low pressure leads to onshore flow of warm, moist winds which slow down over land, converge, rise, and lead to heavy precipitation. During winter, the opposite occurs. The land is cooler than the surrounding water, leading to high pressure, offshore winds, and dry conditions.
These monsoon rains occur every year, but the length, intensity, and total amount of rainfall vary from year to year and over the course of a season. For example, relatively little rain fell in the early part of this year’s rainy season in India. But, beginning on 7 August, much higher-than-normal rain fell along India’s southwest coast. Specifically, 453.4 mm (~18 inches) fell in the state of Kerala over six days (almost 5 times the amount that normally falls over that same period in that region). Drier than normal conditions can pose serious problems for agricultural productivity in India, while wetter conditions can destroy crops and infrastructure via flooding. The picture above shows people fleeing rising flood waters from the recent heavy rains in southwest India. Since May, millions of people in India have been forced to flee rising water and greater than 1,000 have been killed. Similar flooding issues occurred in India during the rainy season last year. In addition to flooding, heavy rains can bring an increased risk of landslides. Increased water in the soil increases pressure between soil grains, increasing the risk of slide. In the past two years, there have been at least 3,000 landslides in India. Many of these are in areas of new construction. Adding material to the upper portions of a slope can also increase the risk of a slide. Thus, limiting development on slopes may be a worthwhile policy strategy to help reduce damages and fatalities from landslides in the future in India and elsewhere. The temporal and spatial scales of global climate and the Asian monsoon are very different, making it difficult to directly correlate the two. Nevertheless, a warming background climate increases the probability of intense rainfall events (warmer air can “hold” more water vapor) and may increase the day-to-day variability of precipitation. Thus, the heavy rains and associated flooding/landslides of the last two rainy seasons may become a more common occurrence, requiring the implementation of long-term adaptation strategies. To learn more about other high-impact weather events occurring across the Indian Ocean and Asia, be sure to click here! © 2019 Meteorologist Dr. Ken Leppert II 
DISCUSSION: There is no debate that many world headlines have been increasingly laden with global concerns regarding the recent, current, and ongoing impacts from the now landfalling Tropical Cyclone India which has been and will continue to impact eastern India and beyond. Having said that, it goes without saying that this will continue to be a major threat to portions of eastern and northeast India as well as parts of southern and central Bangladesh. As a result, this storm must be and continue to be taken incredibly seriously by all those people who are within the forward path of this powerful tropical cyclone. Attached above is a brief Periscope briefing which helps to detail several the key issues associated with the forward progression of Tropical Cyclone Fani from this point forward. Be sure to have a listen if you either live in India or Bangladesh, or if you even have friends or family living in eastern India or southern Bangladesh.
To learn more about other high-impact weather events occurring across the Indian Ocean and Asia, be sure to click here! © 2019 Meteorologist Jordan Rabinowitz  A massive, 300 year-old Piorites coral in the Red Sea similar to the one used to gather information about wind patterns associated with the South Asian Monsoon.
[Credit: Konrad Hughen, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution]. When it comes to understanding future climate, the south Asian summer monsoon offers a paradox. Most climate models predict that as human-caused global warming increases, monsoon rain and wind will become more intense -- but weather data collected in the region shows that rainfall has actually declined over the past 50 years. A new study from Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (WHOI) may help explain this discrepancy. Using chemical data from corals in the Red Sea, scientists reconstructed nearly three centuries of wind data that provided a definitive, natural record of the monsoon's intensity. The finding, published in the Journal Geophysical Research Letters, show that monsoon winds have indeed increased over the past centuries. The south Asian monsoon is important as it is the biggest climate systems on the planet and supplies water for almost a billion people but it’s long-term behaviour is still not well understood. This is because the historic records of rainfall are based on limited points in space with high variability and calculating averages across a broad region is difficult. One branch of the monsoon moves predominantly west to east, crossing the Sahara Desert in northeast Africa, where it picks up fine dust and clay in the process. Its winds are then funnelled through the Tokar Gap, a narrow mountain pass in eastern Sudan, where the dust they contain spills out into the Red Sea. The dust picked up in the Sahara contains a form of barium that dissolves easily in seawater. Each year, corals in the Red Sea incorporate part of that barium into their skeletons as they grow, trapping within them a record of how much wind and dust blew through the gap during summer monsoons for hundreds of years. Barium is used as a proxy for wind and the more barium present in a layer of coral, the more wind was coming through the Tokar Gap during the year it formed. Based on those winds, the location of the low-pressure systems that caused them were calculated which were found to be primarily over the Indian subcontinent. That, therefore, confirmed the winds' connection to the monsoon. The data in the corals seems to prove that historic records of rainfall may be missing a broader picture. Stronger winds would have increased moisture traveling over the Indian subcontinent, despite records showing rainfall dropping off. However, it could be that those records simply missed some of the rainfall, especially in the past when they were less reliable. Rain is highly variable from one place to another and sometimes it might be pouring just a few miles from an area that is not as wet. The coral records show that the strength of the monsoon is in fact increasing with time - a trend that is in line with existing climate models but its variability from decade to decade is diminishing. This suggests that as the climate has warmed, monsoon circulation has become more stable, so extra-heavy winds and rains could be the "new normal" for future years rather than just an anomaly. Journal Reference: Sean P. Bryan, Konrad A. Hughen, Kristopher B. Karnauskas, J. Thomas Farrar. Two Hundred Fifty Years of Reconstructed South Asian Summer Monsoon Intensity and Decadal‐Scale Variability. Geophysical Research Letters, 2019; DOI:10.1029/2018GL081593 To learn more about other climate-related stories occurring across Asia, be sure to click here! © 2019 Oceanographer Daneeja Mawren  Figure 1: Mean monsoon-season (June-September) precipitation (mm) for South Asia, 1901-2016. Land grid cells where precipitation was under 100 mm are left unshaded and are not included in the study domain.
Densely populated South Asia, a leading agricultural area, derives most of its water supply from intense summer rainfall (Figure 1). The rainy season is closely linked to the South Asia Summer Monsoon (SASM), in which moisture flows to the Indian subcontinent from the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal, driven by the land-sea temperature contrast. Interannual variation in the amount and spatial distribution of summer precipitation in the SASM monsoon zone is considerable, with severe consequences for agricultural productivity and human well-being. Prediction of monsoon precipitation has therefore been pursued for over a century, using several predictors such as snow cover and air pressure patterns. With average precipitation of 35 inches per four-month season over an area encompassing most of the Indian subcontinent, the South Asia summer monsoon is intense, only partly understood, and notoriously difficult to predict. A frequent visitor to the region, stretching from Nepal to Sri Lanka, Krakauer has devised a methodology that allows forecasts potentially up to a year in advance. Currently, most predictions are made about two months in advance of the South Asia monsoon season that runs from June to September, but it is not known how far ahead skillful forecasts might be possible. "People usually use one or two predictors for forecasts," said the Grove School of Engineering associate professor who is also affiliated with the CCNY-based NOAA-CREST. Many of these predictors are one or another pattern of sea surface temperatures. His question was how do you find which patterns are important for forecasting the monsoon—the amount of rain and where it will be?" Unlike other forecasters who use only the sea surface temperature readings from neighboring waters, Krakauer looked at the predictive potential of all the common patterns in the sea surface temperature map. He developed prediction methods using global sea surface temperature and monsoon precipitation data from between 1901 to 1996, and tested the performance of his prediction methods on data from 1997-2017. The results show that two methods seem to do a good job of forecasting the monsoon. Sea surface temperatures at the beginning of the monsoon as well as four years back were analyzed. His finding was that, generally, the closer to the beginning of the monsoon season, the more accurate forecasts that are based on sea surface temperature can be. But predictions with some accuracy can be made as far as a year in advance. Getting a better sense of how much water will be available is particularly important given that the rainfall is getting more intense in South Asia while the total amount remains constant, meaning that more rain is falling in a shorter period. This could be problematic for farmers in the region. By considering linear and nonlinear forecast methods using SST modes as predictors, prediction skill for spatially distributed monsoon-period precipitation over South Asia was found to decay with a timescale of 5-12 months, but with residual skill at several-year lead times due to long-term climate trends. While these methods are not definitive and could likely be further improved, the present findings suggest that South Asia monsoon period precipitation can be predicted with longer lead time than the subseasonal to seasonal leads usually attempted now. Journal Reference: Nir Y Krakauer. Year-ahead predictability of South Asian Summer Monsoon precipitation. Environmental Research Letters, 2019; DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ab006a To learn more about other climate-related stories occurring cross Asia, be sure to click here! © 2018 Oceanographer Daneeja Mawren  This MODIS satellite image on August of 2005 captures a dust storm crossing Iraq and portions of the Middle East. When one thinks of the desert, maybe an image such as the one above comes to mind. The MODIS satellite shows a mainly barren landscape with a dust storm scraping across portions of the Middle East. A well-known concept is that deserts are some of the driest places on the planet and cannot support much plant life. Many deserts have a wet season where just about all the yearly precipitation falls (an amount typically minuscule in comparison to other regions) and a dry season where little if any precipitation falls. A previous article outlining the active fall weather across the Middle East is located here. The images above are from Columbia University and showcase three-month precipitation anomalies from fall into winter across the Middle East. Notice the persistent above to well above normal precipitation across the region. Putting all of this into perspective, the desert portions of the Middle East are bone dry during the summertime months while precipitation is much more common in periods during the fall and winter. Persistent anomalous rainfall has contributed to a transformation across portions of western Iran, as well as much of Iraq and Syria. Precipitation anomaly maps are posted above showing in some cases a three-month period where precipitation was 50-100+ mm (about 2 to 4 inches or more) above normal. So, what was the result of this excess precipitation in a desert like landscape?   MODIS satellite imagery from February 2018 (above) and 2019 (below). Notice the amount of greenery that is present across northern and central Syria, northern and central Iraq, western Iran, and even portions of southwest Iraq into northern Saudi Arabia. Examine the MODIS satellite images above both from February (one in 2018 the other in 2019). The difference is rather astounding and significant. Vegetation exists all throughout Syria and Iraq this year, the same locations that were barren desert landscapes in 2018. This begs the question, with that amount of vegetation, will the wet season hang on a little longer with all the extra moisture from evapotranspiration in the plants? Will this not be a factor once the synoptic pattern switches over to the dry season and all the plants die off? Or possibly a combination of the two in some fashion. Nobody knows for sure but stay tuned to GWCC to find out over the coming months and click here to learn more about Western Asia. ©2019 Meteorologist Joe DeLizio Active Mid-East October Pattern (Photo Credit: EUMETSAT via weather.us, NCEP/ESRL Reanalysis)10/30/2018  Portions of the Middle East have been experiencing an active weather pattern for much of the month of October. Looking back about a month ago, the “Medicane” (read more here) impacted a large chunk of the Mediterranean region. After this event and jogging a little farther east, portions of the western Middle East have been plagued by clouds, showers, and thunderstorms. First off let’s look at the general 500 mb pattern across this region from October 1st to October 23rd from the NCEP Reanalysis page. Notice the dominant 500 mb ridge in warmer colors over Yemen, Oman, and punching northward into Saudi Arabia. Now notice the trough in cooler colors digging into the eastern Mediterranean. The location and interaction of these two features lead to a persistent southwesterly mean wind in the mid to upper levels of the atmosphere transporting any clouds and storms that did develop northeasterly from Saudi Arabia and Jordan into Syria and Iraq.  The NCEP image above shows the mean sea level pressure pattern through the same time frame. Notice the semi-permanent surface low pressure in southwestern Iraq and Jordan denoted by the blue colors. This was induced by the trough upstream in the eastern Mediterranean which advected mid-level moisture. This moisture, along with the surface low and the trough to the west, allowed enough of a trigger to form clouds and elevated thunderstorms for the majority of October. The slideshow above (credit to weather.us archive) show the cloud cover and storms continuously developing and moving northeastward into the region described before. These images include “cloud tops” which assesses the vertical growth of clouds with the color scale in degrees C. The pattern intensified the weekend of the 20-21st triggering strong thunderstorms. These thunderstorms trained over Syria and northern Iraq with supercell type thunderstorms developing right over Baghdad on the 21st. See the slideshow above for satellite images of these storms. To top it all off, a strong cold front swept through the region with scattered thunderstorms all throughout the Middle East. Strong gusty winds accompanied this frontal passage which triggered a massive dust storm in eastern Syria stretching into much of Iraq and impacting Baghdad. Near zero visibility was reported at the Baghdad METAR during the climax of the dust storm. The slideshow above shows this incredible event (bright pink represents the dust/sand) via the dust product on the EUMETSAT satellite.
This active pattern has come to a halt as this cold front has cleaned the atmosphere of moisture and any triggers, however, the active pattern is hinting at a return through much of the region by the end of the week based on the latest model guidance. To learn more about active weather in Asia click here! ©2018 Meteorologist Joe DeLizio 
DISCUSSION: During the course of the day on Tuesday (07/10/2018), Typhoon Maria (which was previously Super Typhoon Maria) made its final approach to eastern China. In the process of doing so, Typhoon Maria became yet another strong typhoon hit impact both coastal and parts of mainland China in recent years. It is worth noting that this is not by any means an uncommon occurrence for China as many typhoons have impacted various parts of China over the past several decades. Having said that, there is question that every tropical storm is unique in some way and Typhoon Maria is certainly no exception.
First off, with Typhoon Maria being as large of a storm as it is and has been, there is no debate that there has been a large wind field associated with Maria for a good portion of its lifetime up to this point. In addition, a large wind field also induces much larger and more widespread wave action and persistent ocean swells which ultimately batter coastlines and cause tremendous beach erosion. Moreover, such situations often cause tremendous coastal flooding due to the impacts from a tropical cyclone's storm surge. Furthermore, the larger size of the storm also leads to their naturally being a larger rain shield associated with both the inner and outer parts of the tropical cyclone which leads to more widespread flooding and even flash flooding issues. There is also the fact to consider for how a good portion of central and some parts of eastern China also is quite mountainous. Thus, even as this powerful tropical cyclone continues to gradually weaken as it moves further inland with time, there will continue to be heavy rainfall across a large area and especially across areas with more elevated terrain. Hence, as heavier rainfall falls across areas with more elevated terrain, there will be plenty of rainfall funneling down into areas positioned at a lower terrain height and consequently inducing valley flooding conditions. To learn more about other high-impact weather events occurring across the Indian Ocean and Asia, be sure to click here! © 2018 Meteorologist Jordan Rabinowitz Reflecting on the Impacts from the Landfall of Tropical Cyclone Mekunu. (credit: Globalnews.ca)5/27/2018   DISCUSSION: During the course of the past 3 to 4 days, a good portion of the global atmospheric science community had been “ranting and raving” over the evolution of Tropical Cyclone Mekunu. Through considering the historical and scientific context of this tropical cyclone, it is relatively easy to understand how and why so many people around the world or as interested as they were in this powerful and somewhat rare event. Tropical Cyclone Mekunu was particularly interesting since it formed during the month of May within the northern to northwestern portion of the Arabian Sea. It is also worth noting that Tropical Cyclone Mekunu also (within the span of approximately 24 to 36 hours) strengthened from the equivalent of a Category 1 hurricane (i.e., maximum sustained wind speeds of at least 33 meters per second or 74 miles per hour) to the equivalent of a Category 3 hurricane (i.e., maximum sustained wind speeds of at least 49.6 meters per second or 111 miles per hour). Thus, it goes without saying that this storm underwent a period of what can only be categorized as somewhat rapid intensification.
This period of somewhat rapid intensification for Tropical Cyclone Mekunu is relatively unique because it formed and developed in an ocean basin which (although it is relatively warm) often provides a substantial amount of wind shear due to the nearby ambient effects on monsoonal convection. Having said that, this storm persevered and intensified into a substantial tropical cyclone which went on to deliver a plethora of rainfall to a region which is predominantly dry for most of a typical calendar year. Hence, this tropical cyclone single-handedly generated major regional flooding and flash flooding episodes. As can be seen in the animated infrared satellite imagery attached above, you can see how the storm’s structure generally was maintained both prior to and during the period of landfall. However, what you cannot see but remained to be the case, was that Tropical Cyclone Mekunu went on to also maintain most of the core structure even several hours after landfall. This was likely due in part to the fact that as the core of Mekunu moved onshore, the combination of intense diurnal heat over the southern Middle East along with continue fluxing of warm, moist air off the northwestern Arabian Sea. This combination of factors may have allowed Mekunu to hold on to some of its peak winds for a bit longer than expected in the first few hours after initial landfall. Also, note in the upper-most image, how you can see floodwaters captured as they rushed through parts of the city of Hadibu on the Yemen island of Socotra. This case study goes to show that even in other less typical parts of the world for intense tropical cyclone development, there are still situations where unexpected and unanticipated things do sometimes unfold. To learn more about this Middle East tropical cyclone story, click on the following link: https://globalnews.ca/news/4233899/cyclone-lashes-oman-and-yemen-fatal/ . To learn more about other high-impact weather events occurring across the Indian Ocean and Asia, be sure to click here! © 2018 Meteorologist Jordan Rabinowitz Tropical Cyclone Cebile Impresses the World While Spinning over the Indian Ocean (credit: CIMSS)2/2/2018 
DISCUSSION: As of the past 48 to 72 hours, Tropical Cyclone Cebile underwent an incredible transformation over the open waters of the Indian Ocean. This was a complex tropical cyclone to forecast based on most of its trajectory being over the completely open waters of the central Indian Ocean. As a result of this tropical cyclone remaining over the warm open waters of the Indian Ocean, it has an abundance of time to undergo what is most commonly referred to as an eye-wall replacement cycle. It is during this period of time that the actual eye of a given tropical cyclone is physically replaced with a newer and often a clearer eye and eye wall. It is also during this period of time that there are often minor (and sometimes even substantial) changes in tropical cyclone intensity (meaning a tropical cyclone whose minimum central pressure fluctuates slightly and whose maximum wind speeds fluctuate as well).
As shown in the animated infrared satellite imagery attached above (courtesy of the University of Wisconsin-Madison Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies (CIMSS) research team, you can see how Tropical Cyclone Cebile developed a nearly perfect eye and eye-wall for well over a 12-hour period. In addition, towards the beginning of this particular infrared satellite imagery loop, you can see how Tropical Cyclone Cebile quickly developing what is most often referred to as an "annular cyclone" structure. More specifically, annual structure is best defined as when a given tropical cyclone has close to or nearly-perfect symmetry in the cloud-top temperature field surrounding the eye-wall. Thus, indicating that this tropical cyclone was both intense and had a nearly perfect energy distribution around the center, inner, and outer portions of Tropical Cyclone Cebile while it was at its annual structural state. To learn more about other high-impact weather events occurring across the Indian Ocean and Asia, be sure to click here! © 2018 Meteorologist Jordan Rabinowitz  DISCUSSION: Over the past couple of days, there has been a tremendous amount of warm air advection (i.e., a strong surge of warm air) occurring from over the eastern Indian Ocean and on towards far southern sections of India. This strong surge of warmer air has been a result of the presence of Tropical Cyclone Ockhi impacting parts of southern India. This is very concerning to the region based on the fact that heavy rainfall impacting this region of the world is a major threat to local cities/towns. This is due to the fact that many cities and towns spread across a good portion of India are located in and around areas of elevated terrain. Therefore, such areas are increasingly more prone to seeing impacts from both flooding as well as flash-flooding events. As rainfall accumulates in areas positioned at the lowest elevations of southern India, this can quickly lead to major torrents of raging water as a result of periods of rapid ponding of rainfall. Thus, even as Tropical Cyclone Ockhi gradually begins to wind down in the coming days, this is still a major concern for portions of southern, southwestern, and even western India. Attached above is a recent visible satellite image of Tropical Cyclone Ockhi as of earlier in the day on Monday.
To learn more about other high-impact weather events occurring across the Indian Ocean and Asia, be sure to click here! ©2017 Meteorologist Jordan Rabinowitz  DISCUSSION: As of late last night (i.e., early Wednesday afternoon per the local time in southeastern China), Typhoon Hato finished its final approach towards southeastern China as a Typhoon with maximum sustained winds of 105 MPH and higher gusts periodically up to around 125 MPH; making it the equivalent of a Category 2 hurricane. However, as it consistently being found across many areas being directly impacted by this strong tropical cyclone, there is much less wind damage being inflicted on both coastal and semi-inland areas in the path of Hato. Alternatively, the majority of the damage up to this point has been directly connected to the incoming storm surge directly along certain parts of the Southeastern China coastline. Attached above is a YouTube video which contains raw footage of part of the landfall of Typhoon Hato within the past couple of hours. Note how the impacts are certainly not as great in and around the city of Hong Kong as some were expecting and/or projecting out ahead of this tropical cyclone's landfall. Also, note how in the earlier infrared satellite image attached above, there is also somewhat limited storm-oriented symmetry which also indicates the clear lack of balanced energy distribution within the tropical cyclone prior to landfall and helps to somewhat explain the mitigated magnitude of the associated impacts.
To learn more about other high-impact weather events occurring across the Indian Ocean and Asia, be sure to click here! ©2017 Meteorologist Jordan Rabinowitz  DISCUSSION: Heavy monsoonal rains have wreaked havoc in northern India, southern Nepal, and Bangladesh. Extreme flooding and landslides have killed 160 people and displaced millions of others across the region. The rainfall, which started in eastern Nepal, was caused by an area of low pressure forming over the hills as it gradually moved west.
Particularly in Nepal, the Rapti and Budhirapti rivers flow through a large part of the country towards the southern plains. After their banks burst, many areas in the Chitwan Valley were inundated with water. This region includes human settlements and popular tourist attractions. Nearly 100 hotels were flooded and left at least 700 people stranded, with officials turning to elephants to aid in the rescue. The rains destroyed more than 50,000 homes and left runways in the nearby airport of Biratnagar under two feet of water. From June through September during the monsoon season, flooding and landslides are fairly common. However, Nepal’s energy minister Mahendra Bahadur Sahi believes there is more to it: “The highways made by elevating the land next to the Nepal-India border have restricted the natural flow of water, leaving Nepal’s Terai plains submerged during the rainy season.” To learn more about other high-impact weather events occurring across the Indian Ocean and Asia, be sure to click here! ©2017 Meteorologist Nicholas Quaglieri  DISCUSSION: In looking to the Southern Indian Ocean, there is a very neat large-scale atmospheric pattern in place at the present time. As shown in the graphic above (courtesy of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction's (NCEP) Global Forecast System (GFS) model), there is a particularly strong high-pressure system positioned in the southwest Indian Ocean. In addition, there is also a strong low pressure system positioned in the southeast Indian Ocean. As a result of the strong high pressure system being positioned adjacent to the strong low pressure system, this has created a very strong pressure gradient across the southern Indian Ocean. As a consequence of this strong pressure gradient (i.e., a sharp change in mean sea-level pressure along some straight-line distance), this also has created impressively strong winds across a good portion of the south-central Indian Ocean (i.e., winds greater than or equal to 40 knots). It goes without saying that this is a classic high-next-to-low synoptic scenario and that it will take some time for this strong high to strong low combination to wind down with time.
To learn more about other high-impact weather events occurring across the Indian Ocean and Asia, be sure to click here! ©2017 Meteorologist Jordan Rabinowitz Punjab and Haryana expected to be hit by the South West Monsoon (Credit: The Times of India)6/27/2017  The monsoon season is underway in India, bringing with it heavy rains and flooding. Punjab and Haryana, two Northern states in India, are next in line to be hit with the south-west monsoon. In two days, forecasters say that the monsoon will bring rains to the area. "Conditions are favorable for monsoon's further advancement northwards approaching Punjab, Haryana and Chandigarh in the next couple days," Director of the Chandigarh MeT department, Surinder Pal stated. Climatologically, the Indian monsoon affects the southern states first, then progresses towards the north-eastern states by the end of June, and then covers up the rest of the country by mid-July. Flooding this season has taken a toll on India and neighboring Sri Lanka, the latter which have seen massive flooding earlier this year bringing about many fatalities. To learn more about other interesting weather events occurring across the Indian Ocean and Asia, be sure to click here! ©2017 Meteorologist David Tedesco  DISCUSSION: In only two days, Tropical Cyclone Mora formed in the Bay of Bengal and strengthened into a tropical storm. NASA's Aqua and NASA-NOAA's Suomi NPP satellites tracked the extent and progress of the storm as it was making landfall in Bangladesh. On May 29 at 3:54 a.m. EDT, the time of the Suomi NPP satellite’s overpass, Mora’s maximum sustained winds were near 63 mph (102 km/h) moving north-northeast.
By 11 p.m. EDT on May 29, Mora's maximum sustained winds were near 75 mph (120 km/h), officially making it a Category 1 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. At 3:20 a.m. EDT on May 30, NASA's Aqua captured a visible image of Mora which showed its center still over the Bay of Bengal while its eastern and northern clouds had extended over Bangladesh, India, and Myanmar. By 11 a.m. on May 30, Mora made landfall near Chittagong, Bangladesh affecting hundreds of thousands of lives. Rapid weakening of the storm is expected within the next two days as it moves inland. For the full article, click here. To learn more about other interesting weather events occurring across the Indian Ocean and Asia, be sure to click here! ©2017 Meteorologist Nicholas Quaglieri 
DISCUSSION: Within the last 24 hours, many people aboard a commercial aircraft traveling in the vicinity of Mount Fuji (located in central Japan) were treated to quite an incredible sight during part of their particular flight. As seen in the footage above, this neat sight was characterized by what is best described as laminar flow around the periphery of Mount Fuji. As you can see in the aircraft-based footage above, this laminar flow was identified by the regional cloud cover rushing around and remaining clear of the entire extent of Mount Fiji. Another reason for why laminar flow unfolds around mountains such Mount Fuji in other situations is due to the fact that there is often sinking air in the vicinity of such mountains which naturally forces a diversion of regional air flow around such topographic features. Thus, the area right around the immediate base of Mount Fuji remained to be virtually perfectly clear of all cloudiness. Thus, it is always neat to atmospheric dynamics at play in real-life all over the world.
To learn more about other interesting weather events occurring across the Indian Ocean and Asia, be sure to click here! ©2017 Meteorologist Jordan Rabinowitz Typhoon Nockten Expected to Strengthen as it Approaches the eastern Philippines! (credit: CIMSS)12/23/2016  DISCUSSION: Over the next 24 to 48 hours Typhoon Nockten is expected to make its final approach towards the eastern Philippines. However, as this tropical cyclone continues heading on this westward track towards the eastern Philippines, there is high confidence in the expectation for this tropical cyclone to strengthen prior to its initial landfall in the far eastern Philippines later in the day on Christmas Day (i.e., local time which is GMT + 8 hours). As a consequence of this anticipated period of intensification (possibly rapid intensification), there are expected to be significant (and possibly severe) impacts particularly along coastal sections of the eastern/central Philippines. For this reason, if you have family, friends, or colleagues currently positioned across various parts of the eastern-to-central Philippines, it would be best to advise them to seek shelter at higher ground with sufficient infrastructural design. Due to the rate of forward motion coupled with the Category 3/4 equivalent wind speeds associated with the circulation of Nockten, there is high likelihood of a significant storm surge to impact many coastal areas along with strong onshore flow and heavy rainfall linked to the landfall of the outer and inner circulation sections of Typhoon Nockten.
To learn more about other high-impact weather events from across Asia, be sure to click here! ©2016 Meteorologist Jordan Rabinowitz  DISCUSSION: As of earlier today, this was the scene over western sections of the Bay of Bengal as Cyclone Vardah continued to make its approach towards eastern India. It is projected to make a direct landfall towards the southern half of the Subcontinent within the next 30 hour or so. As it does so, there will be an increasingly larger threat for heavy rainfall (capable of producing flooding and flash flooding especially in areas which reside in valleys where rainfall will run-off and accumulate in) as well as strong/gusty winds. Although this tropical cyclone continues to remain on a consistent weakening trend, it is still expected to deliver quite a punch to the immediate coastline as well as points further inland due to the issues noted above. As you can see on the visible satellite image (attached above) which was captured at 13:30 UTC on December 10th, there was still reasonable "healthy" storm-relative outflow at the time. This indicated that storm; despite remaining on a weakening trend for the duration of its existence, was still fairly well-organized and its corresponding wind field is therefore expected to be fairly wide as far as the maximum wind speeds are concerned at the time of landfall. Those who have family or friends in the path of this incoming cyclone should make them aware and advise them to move away from the coastline if they are there and if it possible for them to do so!
To learn more about other high-impact weather events from across Asia, be sure to click here! ©2016 Meteorologist Jordan Rabinowitz Dust Storms over Arabian Sea! (credit: NASA Aqua Satellite and the NWS Aviation Weather Center)11/26/2016  DISCUSSION: As high pressure continued to dominate the large-scale weather pattern across many parts of the Middle-East over the past several days, some of the stronger winds on the backside of the main high pressure system had some interesting consequences on the landscape of the region. As seen in the image above, many areas along and to the south of the Arabian Sea experienced a wide-ranging series of dust storms which enveloped the region in large quantities of dust. It is worth noting that dust can often have disastrous consequences of large quantities of the Arabian Peninsula which can have major implications of transportation (i.e., by reducing the ability to have reasonably safe visibility capabilities whether it is on the ground or in the air).
To learn more about other high-impact weather events from across Asia, be sure to click here! ~Meteorologist Jordan Rabinowitz Lake-Effect vs. Sea-Effect Snow in Opposite Sides of the Planet! (credit: Meteorologist Tom Niziol)11/25/2016  DISCUSSION: Being as though many people across the interior northeastern United States are still recovering mentally from the fresh "white" memory in light of the recent lake effect machine cranking feet of snow in some places, people's interest are always captivated in winter. Having said that, here is a neat perspective on something which many people around the planet are completely unaware of; namely, the presence of formidable sea-effect snowfall which cranks into high-gear to the east of mainland China during the winter months. Similar to the occurrence of lake-effect snow which occurs seasonally downwind of the Great Lakes over in the north-central and interior northeastern United States, the sea-effect snows which fire up to the east of mainland China (and often impacts central/southern sections of Japan) often mutually occur as a result of cold air progression over the relatively warmer waters which are present in the Sea of Japan. Nonetheless, it is very neat to see how similar phenomena can naturally and relatively consistently be found in different parts of the world; while being driven by relatively similar lake/oceanic-to-atmospheric processes.
To learn more about other high-impact weather events from across Asia, be sure to click here! ~Meteorologist Jordan Rabinowitz/Meteorologist Ken Leppert Former Typhoon Lionrock Roared Through and Flooded Russian Far East (credit: Severe Weather Europe)9/3/2016
As Japan is continuing to recover from the devastating effects of former Typhoon Lionrock, Russia just received their fair share of the tropical cyclone’s wrath. Although Lionrock weakened into a tropical depression after slamming into Japan as a Typhoon, the lingering effects were severe enough to have caused some remarkable flooding for parts of the Russian Far East. The influx of tropical moisture coupled with persistent winds of tropical storm strength (stronger than 39 mph) from the slowing system resulted in heavy rainfall, flooding, and some damaging winds. Rivers have overflowed from the abundance of heavy rain causing the destruction of riverfront homes and structures as well as damaging coastal roads and bridges. Such unprecedented damage and destruction was observed in the province of Primorsky Krai and is captured in the video above, courtesy of Severe Weather Europe. Though Lionrock has already left and is no longer causing damage, the Far East region should prepare for another round of heavy rain, strong winds, and flooding with incoming Typhoon Namtheun which is currently heading into the Sea of Japan and expected to arrive late Tuesday. To learn more about high-impact weather events from across Asia, click here!
Japan has been hammered early this week with rain, flooding, and damage from strong winds as a result of passing Typhoons Mindulle and Kompasu, and more is on the way! Currently in the Northwest Pacific near the East China Sea and Taiwan, Typhoon Lionrock is moving southwest at a slow pace toward the Philippines. Weather models have this typhoon, with winds that are characteristic of a Category 3 hurricane, turning around and tracking northeast away from the Philippines before taking a westward turn toward Japan early next week. Timing is uncertain for this shift in direction (i.e., from northeast to northwest) but models are generally agreeing on the initial northeast direction. The image below depicts this forecast, with the bubbles representing where the center of the storm may be. Though the tropical cyclone is currently strong and at typhoon status, conditions are favorable for weakening Lionrock to a Tropical Storm due to increasing vertical wind shear and cooler sea surface temperatures. However, with the size of the storm and its’ impacting wind field, caution should be exercised by everyone by preparing for potentially heavy rain, strong and damaging winds, and more flooding. To learn more about other high-impact weather events in Asia, click here! @MeteorologistKatieMcCracken  Deadly Tornado Hit Philippines' Capital Yesterday (credit: Severe Weather Europe via Youreporter.it)8/14/2016
Heavy rain and strong storms associated with the southwest monsoon in the Philippines spawned an unwelcome and deadly guest, a tornado, yesterday early evening. Formed around 5 PM (local time), a tornado in the capital of Manila quickly whipped through the city and destroyed houses and buildings and downed power lines. This intense tornado can be spotted in the video below, courtesy of Severe Weather Europe. Unfortunately, at least five known deaths have occurred and many citizens have been displaced as a result of the tornado. To learn more about other high-impact weather events from across the rest of Asia, be sure to click here!
DISCUSSION: As an impressively strong ridge of high pressure continues to dominate across much of the Middle East over the last week or so, there have been incredibly high temperatures recorded across the region (particularly over the past few days). More specifically, just yesterday afternoon (local time), in Central Kuwait there was an unbelievably near-record to potentially record high temperature observed in and around Kuwait City. Although there is some suspicion that the highest recorded temperature on-record is a high temperature of 134.0 F in Death Valley, California, this is not believed to be sufficiently accurate based on much discussion over the past few years. Having said that, this is still certainly a high temperature which absolutely still is a contender for being close to reaching (if not potentially surpassing) the all-time record high temperature anywhere in the world. It is worth noting that this excessively hot high temperature recently observed in certain parts of Kuwait was a result of nearly-perfect deep-layer adiabatic compressional warming (i.e., the sinking of an air parcel from approximately 1.5 to 2 miles above the ground towards the surface without the air parcel undergoing any measurable energy exchange with the surrounding environment). To learn more about other high-impact weather events from across Asia, be sure to click here!
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