Could Heavy Rainfall Continue to Increase in Frequency? (credit: Climate Central)

DISCUSSION: There is little to no argument across the global scientific community that the Earth has for quite some time been and still is continuing to experience net planetary warming. One of the premiere concerns in the presence of an increasingly warmer planet are the prospects of heavier rainfall events occurring with a greater frequency and intensity both across the contiguous United States and all over the world for that matter. This a direct result of the fact that as the Earth continues to experience a net global heating trend, this consequentially increases the average global concentration of atmospheric water vapor.  As this gradual average increase in atmospheric water vapor content occurs, this increases the propensity of heavy rainfall event potential by way of there being more atmospheric water vapor available in the lower to middle parts of the atmosphere for developing storm systems (i.e., whether they be in the form of thunderstorms or much larger-scale extra-tropical cyclones). 

Hence, in the presence of a warming planet, the threat for a greater frequency of heavy rainfall events has many regional, national, and international scientists (and specifically hydrologists) rather concerned.  This is because an occurrence of heavy rainfall events with a greater average frequency also adds the possibility of their being a greater propensity for river and stream flooding events which consistently have the potential to inundate towns and cities both near and far from the given waterway.  To better understand the reason for the major concerns tied to the percentage increase in heavier precipitation events over the 55 + years, there are direct excerpts from the actual article written by the Climate Central team. 

"A warmer world supercharges the water cycle, leading to heavier precipitation. To start, a warmer atmosphere creates more evaporation — for every 1°F of warming, the saturation level is increased by about four percent. With more water evaporating into the atmosphere, there is more available to condense into precipitation, and it’s coming down in bigger downpours...............Even in the absence of urban development where there is more rain runoff, heavy rain will lead to more flooding. This means extreme flooding will become more common, resulting in more property damage. Over time, flood maps may have to be redrawn, which will have an impact on property values and insurance rates. Damage from the 2016 Louisiana floods was $10.4 billion and totaled $125 billion from Harvey."

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© 2018 Meteorologist Jordan Rabinowitz