DISCUSSION: Over the past few hours, there has been a consistent intensification trend associated with a increasingly more organized Tropical Storm Earl. As a strengthening tropical storm continues to make its final approach towards the coast of Belize and ultimately the Western to central portions of the Yucatán Peninsula which is located in Eastern Mexico. As a result of the details noted above, there will be an increasing threat for gusty winds and heavy rainfall capable of collectively producing a threat for mudslides and landslides across much of the eastern portions of Mexico. The future track is likely going to bring Earl over southern portions of the Yucatán Peninsula before a potentially reemerging over the extreme southern portions of the Bay of Campeche for making a second landfall across portions of Central Mexico.
Though Earl remains to be a relatively weak tropical storm on the Saffir-Simpson wind scale (the intensity scale by which hurricanes are categorized), those in the path of the storm should take adequate shelter and preparations for the storm. The reasoning for the concern that still remains is the fact that this tropical storm still has the potential to do plenty of infrastructural and overall damage to towns and cities in its path both during and in the aftermath of its passage!
Attached below is a need graphic as part of a larger series of images as captured by the lower fuselage radar from the NOAA WP-3 aircraft which is currently flying through Earl to acquire critical data to be included in upcoming forecast model runs to enhance the likelihood of improved forecast output to help forecasters produce the best forecast possible for the remaining life-span of this strengthening tropical storm. To learn more about other high-impact weather events from across North America, be sure to click here!