DISCUSSION: As discussed last week, a very stable omega block has setup shop over Central Europe which has led to unusually warm weather for this time of year. Places in Germany, France, and Spain have all shattered numerous daytime highs over the last several days. On the other hand, a persistent cut-off low pressure system swirling over the Mediterranean (between Greece and Italy) has led to deadly flash flooding. Several days of rain brought traffic to a standstill on one major interstate in Southern Italy, and videos posted to Facebook conveyed the impressive power of moving water. Trees, cars, and even several buildings in Greece were destroyed by the heavy rainfall and the ensuing flash floods. Thankfully, a pattern change is on the way for Europe.
Later this week, the cut-off low pressure system will eventually spin down, effectively losing strength and falling apart. While that occurs across Southeastern Europe, the presence of an impressively deep trough will ultimately bring much needed relief to many areas across Europe. A trough is indicative of cooler temperatures, but troughs are also associated with unsettled weather which may not necessarily be a bad thing for parts of Europe currently struggling from drought conditions. As a result of the warm temperatures and increased humidity ahead of the cold front coupled with strong upper-level winds, there will be an increase potential for the development of strong to severe thunderstorms.
Following the cold front’s passage, the trough will dig in and provide showery but cooler weather. For example, temperatures across parts of Germany have surpassed 30°C (86°F) over the past several weeks and will fail to rise above 15°C (60°F) on Sunday. Next week appears to be very similar to the conditions Europeans have been experiencing since late August, with another cut-off low forming over the Eastern Mediterranean and high pressure dominating the rest of the continent. After a brief reprieve from the heat, cities and towns in Spain and Portugal will very likely surpass 30°C again. September is shaping up to be one of the hottest on record for Spain and Portugal. Remember to stay hydrated and keep cool during the warmest part of the day, typically between 10am-2pm.
To learn more about other high-impact weather events from across Europe, be sure to click here!
@ Meteorologist Jake Keiser
The animated GIF linked above depicts the Global Forecast System (GFS) Model's Prediction for Temperature Anomalies Over The Course of the Next 5 Days. (Blue-colored regions indicate cooler-than-average temperatures; while red-colored regions denote warmer-than-average temperatures). This animated graphic is courtesy of Tropical Tidbits.