Discussion: How would you know if you are in a drought? Well, you can observe your local drought monitor website or view what your local Meteorologist has to say. But you can really notice the difference when you step outside and examine your surroundings. First, you’ll witness that the grass is dry and crunchy, the creek in the woods is running low, and the gardens around your neighbor's house look parched. Your area hasn’t observed an inch of rain in weeks. Finally, a time comes when rain falls steadily throughout the day. You step outside the following day hoping to see an improvement in your neighbor's garden to only be met with the same depleted look. That rain may have relieved a bit of the arid view, but it is far from making everything lush and green again. After a continued period of time with little to no rain, one rainstorm won’t replenish what had been lost.
Before beginning to see signs of drought, an area will see a decrease of precipitation. Below average amounts of precipitation are usually caused by a shift in weather patterns that drive weather systems away from the area rather than towards it. More likely in the summer, this change in pattern can increase temperatures causing an area to become extremely hot and dry. Dry, hot air increases the evaporation of water from soil and plants leaving the soil to dry up and the plants to wilt. When it is exceptionally dry and it rains, the water immediately evaporates back into the air and rolls off the surface of the soil instead of soaking into the ground. This makes it hard for the soil to regain its moisture level. Due to this, a single heavy downpour will not regenerate a exceptionally dry area. Rain has to happen more frequently in order to allow soil to regain moisture.
There is a considerable number of factors when determining the severity of a drought. Different models and indexes are used to calculate severity including one called the Palmer Hydrological Drought Index (PHDI). This quantifies long-term drought using the water budget, precipitation and temperature data. The more dehydrated an area gets and the less precipitation the area receives, the more negative the PHDI reads.
The amount of precipitation needed to improve a drought depends on the time of year, climatology of an area, and drought severity. Climatologists can reverse the calculations of PHDI to estimate the amount of precipitation needed, in inches, to help improve or eliminate a drought. For example, if it were the month of August and your area is in an abnormally dry condition, a trace to 3 inches would be sufficient in improving those conditions. A moderate drought could need 3 to 6 inches, a severe drought may need 6 to 9 inches, and an extreme drought would need 9 to 12 inches. If your area was in an exceptional drought, 12 to 15 inches or more would be needed to make a difference. However, a drought would only improve if that amount of precipitation was going to fall. It may take months to a couple seasons for the weather pattern to cooperate and deliver the needed amounts of precipitation.
More than just one rain system needs to impact the area to replenish what was lost. Rain needs to fall in large quantities and more frequently to make a change in drought conditions. In many cases, weather patterns don’t cooperate, and that area will go longer without seeing rain. This leads to worsening drought conditions and a need for even more rain. Depending on how severe a drought is, it may take multiple rain systems over a course of weeks and months to see an improvement.
To find out more on current or past drought information click here!
© 2018 Meteorologist Alexandria Maynard
Drought Update Across the United States (Credit: NOAA Climate.gov, United States Drought Monitor,Climate Prediction Center)
Discussion: In the southwestern United States, drought conditions have gone from abnormally dry to extreme in a span of six months. Some states across the Southern Plains received less than 100 percent of their average monthly precipitation this winter. In the Northeast, Midwest, and Southeast these states saw some relief in drought conditions as they experienced some significant rainfall and snowfall events. According to the U.S. Drought monitor, 36% of the country is experiencing some level of drought.
The drought map, which is made by the National Drought Mitigation Center, bases the level of drought on 4 levels ranging from D0 (abnormally dry) to D4 (exceptional drought). Levels of D3 drought, which is extreme drought, still linger across the Texas Panhandle, Oklahoma, and into some parts of the Four Corners. he Climate Prediction Center has released their drought outlook for the month valid from February to March and it shows that conditions are likely to remain the same across the southwestern United States while in parts of Montana and the Carolinas drought starts to improve a. Overall the seasonal outlook which is valid from February to May shows that drought will remain in parts of the southwest but conditions will start to improve and in parts of Montana and the southeast drought conditions are likely to be gone.
For more information on the ongoing drought conditions, be sure to click here!
© 2018 Meteorologist Shannon Scully
DISCUSSION: One year later and effects of drought are still seen amid the possibility of decreasing drought conditions due to 2016-2017 winter rain season in California. Although California has seen drought difficulties recently which amount to extreme burn scars, flash flooding, mud and landslides, some benefit has come from this yearly comparison.
Comparing the January 31st, 2017 monitor to the January 30th, 2018 monitor, the light at the end of the tunnel is still no observable D4, exceptional drought index seen within the state. There has also been a decrease in D3-D4 drought down 1.87 % to zero this week, D2-D4 decrease of 15.38%, and D1-D4 decrease of 7.08%. The drought monitor is indicating an increase in at least D0 (abnormally dry) areas within California, extending to a large portion of the state at nearly 73.33%.
This abnormally dry area is attributed to nearly 6+ months of drier weather impacting, “California and Nevada northward across the Great Basin to Oregon and southern Idaho,” according to Richard Heim, NOAA/NCEI. Reports are indicating some difficulties for livestock ranchers with decreasing forage and water supplies especially due to deceased snowpack and dried vegetation. Heim states we are seeing weather patterns, “typical of spring than mid-winter.” However, despite some increased D0 conditions California has fared well in dryness management given landscape and water resources.
For more information on drought impacts, please visit the Global Weather and Climate Center!
©2018 Meteorologist Jessica Olsen
Despite Historic Hurricane, South Still Left Out to Dry (Credit: NWS Corpus Christi, US Drought Monitor)
DISCUSSION: As the year draws to a close, it is important to look back at major weather events and see if and how the effects can linger into the new year. The hurricane season is one of the most important aspects of the meteorological calendar, and this year was no exception.
Hurricane Harvey first made landfall on August 25, 2017 in San Jose Island, Texas and then near the Fulton and Rockport, Texas area at around 10pm CDT (11pm EDT). Winds maxed at nearly 130 mph. In the four days Hurricane Harvey battered the Texas Coast, many areas saw over 30 inches of rain (see photo).
The drought monitor has certainly changed in the south compared to one year ago, although perhaps not in the way one would think. On December 13, 2016, 42.66% of the land was not experiencing any kind of drought conditions. Fast forward almost a year to December 12, 2017 and now only 23.96% of the land is not under drought conditions. Despite the torrential amount of rain that was received from Hurricane Harvey (excluding any other storms), there are generally more areas under drought conditions this year than last year, with severe conditions persisting particularly in northeast Texas, northwest Louisiana, southeast Oklahoma and nearly half of Arkansas. On the other hand, 100% of Tennessee was under drought conditions at this time last year, and currently only 31.86% are under drought conditions.
Take a look at the drought monitor, or choose to read more about Hurricane Harvey.
For more updates on droughts and other weather events, visit the Global Weather and Climate Center!
©2017 Meteorologist Nicholas Quaglieri
Exceptional drought, the most severe case of drought, has developed in North Dakota, and Montana. According to the National Centers for Environmental Information, the United States has gone 25 weeks without a case of exceptional drought until the U.S Drought Monitor released their data on July 18, 2017. During the Drought Monitor week, an upper-level ridge of high pressure covered the western United States. Rainfall was hindered and temperatures soared as the ridge sat over the west. Stations in the excessive drought area have reported little to no rainfall. Crops have taken a damaging hit from high temperatures and very little rainfall. Burn bans have been issued in several Tribes in eastern Montana and the Rocky Boys reservation has reported water shortages. Looking ahead, rain showers have moved across northern and central plains since the Drought Monitor was released. Above average monsoon rainfall is expected to continue over the southeast. Temperatures are expected to stay above normal for much of the United States over the week ahead.
Stay tuned for the weekly Drought Monitor here!
ⓒ 2017 Meteorologist Brandie Cantrell
DISCUSSION: Drought conditions in the high plains have gradually worsened over the course of the year. This includes the states of North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, Wyoming, and Colorado. Severe and extreme drought has expanded across eastern Montana, south-central North Dakota and northwest South Dakota where dry and hot conditions have persisted. Many areas this past week across the Dakotas had temperatures climb well into the 90s, with many even reaching triple digits.
In northwestern South Dakota, the South Dakota State University Extension staff reported “poor pasture and range conditions as well as deteriorating crop conditions.” The lack of precipitation and extreme heat has wreaked havoc on farming. In Glasgow, Montana, the National Weather Service Office reported several dry precipitation records were broken for Glasgow; this includes the driest January through June since 1983 (2.75 inches). In Montana, only 52.28% of the land is currently not experiencing any kind of drought conditions (image above). In the high plains, only 53.49% of the region is currently not under any drought conditions.
For more information on the drought, click here!
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©2017 Meteorologist Nicholas Quaglieri
DISCUSSION: In more than 5 years California had seen unprecedented precipitation starting Fall 2016-Spring 2017. These rains have brought both positivity and negativity to the residents of California. Californians can celebrate as its drought monitor has shown as far back at October 2016 when consistent rains began in the area there was no percentage area not covered by some D0-D4 drought, showing 100 percent of the state experiencing D0-D4 drought, conditions that plagued California for over 5 years. In comparison to the past reported week of May 16th 2017, the state is rid of 76.47% of drought while 23.53 of the state experiences from D0-D4 which can be seen in southern California. These improvements may increase crop yields, economy and livelihoods within the state.
Conversely California has now had to address the dramatic amounts of precipitation seen in the past several months. The deluge of precipitation has brought concern among water infrastructure, dam capacity, flooding, and of recent concern landslides and mudslides. One of the most highly impacted locations due to increased water retention is the area along the Big Sur Coast between Monterey and San Luis Obispo Counties.
Within the past two months the Pfeiffer Canyon Bridge had been demolished due to the excess damage it experienced due to localized landslides. This structure originally built in 1968 is expected to be replaced this year with a reopening of September with a cost of $24 million (Caltrans). These costs do not include the difficulties Big Sur residents are now facing as some cannot pass northbound into Monterey County, likewise Big Sur coast is typically a scenic tourist location which is already seeing increased financial difficulties as visitors cannot visit due to the temporary road closures.
Earlier this week (May 20th, 2017) a major landslide impacted the Big Sur area, extending about a quarter mile with Highway 1 covered in nearly 40 feet deep of rock and dirt. The road is closed indefinitely with no indications for opening in sight. The increased landslides seen in this area are attributed to the influx of precipitation the area received within the past 6 months. There has been relief lately however this rain-packed season has proved challenging for Big Sur residents and employees.
For more updates on droughts and weather visit the Global Weather and Climate Center!
© Meteorologist Jessica Olsen
California, Caltrans State of. "Caltrans Removes Damaged Pfeiffer Canyon Bridge, Plans to Quickly Re-build." Caltrans Title. Tamie McGowen, 11 Apr. 2017. Web. 24 May 2017.
"Maps And Data." United States Drought Monitor > Home. N.p., n.d. Web. 24 May 2017.
DISCUSSION: While parts of the United States get battered by rain as spring ensues, the Southeast is left out to dry. This includes the states of Virginia, North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, Alabama, and Florida. The majority of the Southeast has a humid, subtropical climate and is known for its relatively uniform and low-lying flood-prone land. However, now three-quarters of the land are in the midst of a drought.
The change in the drought monitor for the Southeast United States has been astounding. On April 5, 2016, only 16.53% of the Southeast were experiencing any kind of drought conditions. This only included the D0 level, which is abnormally dry, and there were no other levels of more severe drought conditions. In comparison, as of April 4, 2017, 41.07% of the Southeast were experiencing D0 drought conditions. In addition, 26.56% were experiencing D1 drought conditions, 7.96% experiencing D2 drought conditions, and 1.08% experiencing D3 drought conditions. This means a total of 76.67% of the Southeast were experiencing some type of drought condition.
The land has become so unusually dry that water from large rain events can’t properly be absorbed into the ground, causing flooding. In October of 2016, Hurricane Matthew provided some relief on the coasts of Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina, but it did not reach inland enough to lessen the more serious drought effects. There is hope as hurricane season approaches that some tropical systems can provide some help to the drought-ridden Southeast United States.
For additional discussions on weather stay tuned to the Global Weather and Climate Center for updates!
©2017 Meteorologist Nicholas Quaglieri
DISCUSSION: Winter has certainly proved to be a fruitful season for California, but with the fruits of labor that mother nature has provided, she has also brought devastation for many as Californian’s are still experiencing effects of the changing drought landscape. The rainy season is typically marked from late October through March in California, this season brings the majority of yearly rainfall to the region, in addition to heavy impacts of flooding, and mud/landslides.
Data beginning October 4th, 2016 through February 28th, 2017 has shown stunning changes in the drought monitor. Approximating from the beginning of October, there was 0% area without some D0-D4 drought in the state, with 100% experiencing at least D0 drought conditions. 21.04% of the state had experienced D4 highest drought of Exceptional Drought according to the monitor. Conversely by February 28th, 2017, California has reported that 74.49% of the state is NOT experiencing drought. With this D3-D4 and D4 drought has been completely eliminated from the monitor altogether, still with some time left in this rainy season. The drought monitor still indicating those experiencing the drought conditions located in Southern California, which have benefited from recent precipitation but still 25.51% to go to completely eliminate drought from the states’ monitor.
The next few weeks will prove to be one for the books as California’s rainy season may see an end. For more information on California’s drought or other weather related items visit the Global Weather and Climate Center!
~Meteorologist Jessica Olsen
DISCUSSION: Of increased interest has been the diminishing figures of high drought intensity in California. The holiday season proved to be fruitful especially into the New Year as we wrap up our first month into 2017. With the end of 2016 and the beginning of 2017, the weather in the Eastern Pacific has been enough to keep us captivated from the Pineapple Express to the expansive low that brought unsettled weather this week to the Western states.
Attached are images of the U.S. Drought Monitor for the state of California, January 26th, 2016 and January 31st, 2017 nearly a year apart. During our last investigation, observing the drought monitor for December 2015 and December 2016, impacts for D4 Exceptional Drought had decreased nearly 40%. With data taken from January 2016 and January 2017 D4 Exceptional Drought is at a 0%, even with D3 Extreme Drought at 1.87% with 38.98% of the states’ area not experiencing any drought, whereas there was 0% reportable of no drought conditions seen in the state.
Within 52 weeks the US Drought Monitor has published a class change from January 31st, 2017 compared to February 2nd, 2016. Many of the changes reported can be seen in central/northern California, seeing as much as 5 Class Improvement. There is still work to be done however as southern California reports no change to some 2 Class degradation in drought. Degradation isn’t entirely apparent however reviewing the January 31st release, much of the D0-D3 drought area is concentrated in central/southern California.
Follow the Global Weather and Climate Center for updates on this and other meteorological events!
~Meteorologist Jessica Olsen