Taking a Look at the Fall 2018 Climate Outlook Credit: NOAA National Center for Environmental Information, NOAA Climate Prediction Center)
Discussion: The leaves are changing colors and the nights are getting shorter, just two of the many signs that fall has begun. What kind of weather can we expect this fall? NOAA’s National Center for Environmental Information has released their fall outlook (September 2018-November 2018) to give us a snapshot of what the contiguous United States can expect this season. Temperatures this fall across the majority of the United States are expected to be above normal seasonal temperatures. The northeast and southwestern regions have the highest chance for greater than average seasonal temperatures this fall. The exception to this are parts of the southeastern United States, where there is an equal chance between having below, near, or above average regional temperatures.
In addition to temperatures this season, it is also important to take a look at what precipitation could be like across the United States. Parts of the southeastern United States and the southwest have the highest chance of having above average precipitation. The Pacific Northwest region has a higher chance of being drier than seasonal averages this fall. The rest of the United States is expected to fall within the equal chance category. This means that the climate signal for the rest of the country isn’t strong enough to determine if precipitation will be above or below normal.
The NOAA Climate Prediction Center has also been monitoring El Niño conditions because El Niño does have an impact on seasonal climate here in the United States. The strength of an El Niño and where it is expected to impact can vary. According to NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, they have issued an El Niño watch. The model forecasts they use indicate a 50%-55% chance for El Niño to develop this fall and a 65-70% chance for development this winter. Forecasters will have to keep an eye on things this fall to see what develops.
For more information on fall outlooks in your specific region click here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/news/september-2018-regional-climate-impacts-and-outlooks
For more information on global and regional climate topics be sure to click here
©2018 Meteorologist Shannon Scully