DISCUSSION: Through considering the prospects of a gradually increasing net average global temperature both on a yearly and a seasonal basis, there are many global weather and oceanic concerns both for logistical and economical reasons. Among these concerns, is the major concern of there potentially being a substantially larger number of days which involve the occurrence of severe thunderstorms with the capability of producing some combination of dangerous lightning, winds, hail, and/or tornadoes. The reason for this concern is due to the fact that with a gradually warming planet, this facilitates a scenario wherein there can be a greater amount of average atmospheric water vapor content present in the lower to middle parts of the atmosphere.
Hence, when there is gradually increasing average atmospheric water vapor content suspended within the lower to middle parts of the atmosphere, this allows for smoother condensation of cloud masses associated with mesoscale (i.e., smaller-scale pulses of energy in the atmosphere which trigger more localized convective storm events) and/or synoptic-scale (i.e., typically larger-scale weather systems such as tropical or extra-tropical low-pressure systems which tend to have a life cycle of between 3 and 7 days). Thus, in such situations in the future, there would naturally be increased concerns for more efficient and easier development of convection in such situations which could lead to a greater propensity for a greater corresponding frequency of severe weather events during such scenarios. Therefore, as the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s National Weather Service network always emphasizes to the general public, you must always be prepared for severe weather throughout the course of a given calendar year since you never know when severe weather will strike your area with limited notice even in the presence of a timely forecast days in advance.
It is also worth noting that although we have had a much below average tornado season here in the United States during the spring 2018 season, severe weather can strike across many places and during many times of the year without very much advanced notice, which can put a tremendous amount of stress on both energy companies, operational forecasters, and others to do their jobs to the best of their respective abilities. So, when in doubt, be sure to listen to scientific experts in their respective fields for professional insights regarding the level of concern which may needed for a given severe weather threat or seasonal projection thereof since it may end up saving you money or even life at some point.
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© 2018 Meteorologist Jordan Rabinowitz