 DISCUSSION: Summer seems to keep hanging on as the Climate Prediction Center has released their Fall outlook valid for the months of October, November, and December. For most of the continental United States, temperatures are forecast to be warmer than normal for this time of year. For the Southwestern United States, temperatures are forecast to be well above-average and in New England temperatures for Fall are expected to be warmer than usual for this time of year. Alaska will also be getting in on these above normal temperatures as northern parts of the state are also expected to be as much as 60% above average.
Fall precipitation across most of the United States are expected to shake out as such that these regions could see above, below, or normal precipitation values. For the Southeastern United States, precipitation forecasts for the Fall are expected to be drier than normal. The state of Montana and the southern most parts of Saskatchewan, Alberta and British Columbia are forecast to be slightly above average. The warm temperatures combined with the below average precipitation forecast could impact drought conditions across the Southeast. To learn more about other regional climate topics, be sure to click here! ©2016 Meteorologist Shannon Scully
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 DISCUSSION: Here is a neat graphic (courtesy of the National Weather Service office in Glasgow, Montana) which encompasses a wide array of recognized reporting stations across the Western United States and their corresponding typical dates by which the first snowfall typically occurs! Note how in the more mountainous terrain, there tends to be an earliest first snowfall which makes sense since those locations are at a higher altitude which makes them more more vulnerable to colder temperatures earlier in the Fall-time months and prone to earliest snowfall events.
To learn more about other regional climate topics, be sure to click here! ©2017 Meteorologist Jordan Rabinowitz Meteorologist Joe Cioffi Discusses the Winter 2016-2017 Outlook! (credit: Meteorologist Joe Cioffi)9/13/2016  DISCUSSION: As the Northern Hemisphere Summer begins to slowly wind down over the next few weeks and Fall begins to set in more and more, there will certainly be noticeable changes getting underway across the contiguous United States. That being said, as Joe discusses, the large-scale sea-surface temperature (SST) trends in place over the past few weeks, there are definitely some neat potential ramifications on the upcoming 2016-2017 winter season and is very comprehensively and coherently written. Among some of the pertinent highlights, there is an increased threat for wetter and warmer weather along the Mid-Atlantic to Northeast corridor which is the primary region of concern in his discussion! It is imperative to acknowledge the fact that there have already been some impressive statistics with respect to winter weather impacts across the New York City metro area over the course of the past several winter.
That being said, the discussion also highlights (and justifiably so) that the current projections for the Winter season of 2016-2017 are predominantly statistically-based per regional climatological data. In addition, it is imperative to also acknowledge that despite the current thoughts of forecasters from across the Mid-Atlantic and the Northeast corridors, there is a decent range of temperature and precipitation-based trends which could materialize during this developing weak-to-moderate La Niña event which will continue to evolve over the coming months and beyond. For future updates on the thoughts for the longer-term forecast for the Winter of 2016-2017 and other long-term climate-related topics/issues, be sure to click here! ©2017 Meteorologist Jordan Rabinowitz   DISCUSSION: With meteorological fall 10 days in, it’s time to take a look at how this past summer stacked up against the climatological record for the contiguous United States in terms of temperature and precipitation. Overall, this was the 5th warmest summer (June through August) in the contiguous United States since 1895. The average temperature was 73.5° F, 2.1° above the 21st Century average. June was particularly warm for the Southwestern United States, with an average temperature being 5.3° above average (67.6° F), making it the hottest June on record. August was also an impressively hot month, especially in the East (see the graphic above, courtesy of NCEI). It was the 4th hottest month on record for the Southeast, with an average temperature of 80.8°F compared to the 21st Century average of 78.0°F – a whole 2.8° departure! More impressively, with the few oppressive heat waves that hit the Northeast, it led to the hottest average temperature ever recorded August, 74.8°F, with a 4.4° departure from the 21st Century average.
Precipitation-wise, the contiguous United States was a little bit above average, experiencing their 24th wettest summer. The 21st Century average is 8.32 inches, and this summer’s average surpassed it by 0.60 inches at 8.92 inches. The Upper Midwest and the Ohio Valley had their 3rd and 7th wettest summers, respectively. For the Upper Midwest, they received 3.56 inches of above average rainfall; for the Ohio Valley, it was a little bit less, at 3.25 inches. Taking a look at Louisiana in particular (see the graphic below, courtesy of NCEI), they had their 3rd wettest summer with 9.18 inches above average. (For reference, 9.18 inches is a little less than the average precipitation the South would get for the entire summer!) Most of this precipitation was received during August when they received an incredible amount of rain in a few short days, which led to historic flooding. Their total rainfall for the month of August was 12.90 inches, which was 8.26 inches above average. To learn more about regional climates around the world, click here! ©Meteorologist Katie McCracken |
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