Near-Term National Temperature and Precipitation Outlook (credit: NWS Climate Prediction Center)

DISCUSSION: As people living in hundreds of cities and communities spread across the contiguous United States gear up for the heart of Summer, many are bracing for what they expect to be "climatologically normal" weather trends.  The current forecast thinking for the next week to 10 days is certainly no exception. As detailed in the graphic above, there are substantially warmer conditions anticipated across many parts of the western United States over the next 6 to 10 days.  Moreover, some of the anomalously warmest conditions are expected to be felt across much of Idaho, Montana, and Wyoming.  This will be largely due to a large ridge moving over the western United States which will allow for sufficiently strong subsidence that will help to generate anomalously warm temperatures across that part of the country.  

The second half of the story is tied to the largely anticipated increase in the prevalence of heavier precipitation across a large portion of the southwestern United States.  This increase in both the intensity and coverage of regional precipitation will be chiefly due to a greater influence of the southwestern U.S. monsoon circulation.   As is usually the case, the southwestern U.S. monsoon circulation will be emanating from the far southeastern Pacific Ocean domain just offshore from southern California and northwestern Mexico.  As the flow on the backside of the incoming ridge turns from being southerly to more southwesterly, this will help to amplify the surge of this "wetter" air mass into the southwestern U.S.  As this moisture-laden air mass moves over elevated areas spread across states in the "Four Corners region," there will be associated orographic enhancement of regional rainfall which may also lead to flooding and/or flash flooding.  Therefore, it is imperative to remain "weather-ready" and never attempt to drive through flooded roadways, if you do encounter any while traveling through this part of the southwestern US in the coming days.

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©2017 Meteorologist Jordan Rabinowitz