 On the five year anniversary of Hurricane Sandy, an October 2017 research report written by Climate Central highlights some of the major U.S. cities that are most vulnerable to major coastal flooding and sea rise using a variety of metrics, including the total population within the FEMA 100-year floodplain, that population as augmented by sea level rise projections for the year 2050, and the total social vulnerability populations that are most at risk. Each analysis in the report examined coastal cities with overall populations greater than 20,000; the first metric (cities most vulnerable to coastal flooding today) were tabulated by overlaying 2010 Census block population counts against FEMA's 100-year coastal floodplains, a comprehensive evaluation which factors in storm surge, tides, and waves. Based on locations meeting the criterion that there is at least a 1% annual chance of flooding, New York City ranked first for cities most vulnerable to coastal flooding today, with over 245,000 people at risk, followed by Miami with 126,000 people at risk, Pembroke Pines, Coral Springs, and Miramar. Of the 25 most vulnerable cities, 22 of them were located in Florida, with just New York City, Charleston, South Carolina, and Atlantic City, New Jersey making the list. In a second analysis, one that re-ranked the cities based on which have the largest populations that could be threatened by the year 2050 due to sea level rise driven by climate change, as well as local land subsidence, New York City again fared to be the most vulnerable city. This was determined using media local sea level rise projections for midcentury by (Kopp et al 2014) to additively elevate the FEMA 100-year floodplain, extending it as topography allowed. Much like in the previous analysis, 36 cities in Florida placed in the top 50. Lastly, coastal cities were ranked by their high social vulnerability population, a metric that was determined using the a Social Vulnerability Index developed by the Hazards and Vulnerability Research Institute, an index that incorporates nearly 30 different socioeconomic variables to help evaluate a community's preparedness and responsiveness to environmental hazards such as floods. New York City, Philadelphia, Baltimore, Houston, and Miami were ranked as the top five cities with the largest social vulnerability within the future FEMA 100-year floodplain, and once again, as was in the case with the other metrics, cities in the state of Florida overwhelmingly made the top of the list. It is clear that the report suggests that the state of Florida, as well as other urban, under-prepared areas such as Atlantic City and New York City, could be the most widely affected by major coastal flooding and sea level rise due to climate chance in the next few decades. Be sure to check out our other articles on climate here. © 2018 Meteorologist Chris Stubenrauch
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 Discussion: As winter thaws into spring, NOAA’s National Center for Environmental Prediction has released their climate statistics for this past winter (December 2017- February 2018). Overall the average winter temperature was recorded to be 34.0 ° F which was 1.8 ° F above normal. The above normal temperature trend kept going in parts of the southwestern United States, and the East and West coasts. Parts of the Northern High Plains and the Central plains saw the opposite temperature trend and observed cooler than normal temperatures. The average maximum temperature across the United States during the winter was 44.9° F and the average minimum temperature was 23.1° F. Alaska experienced their fourth warmest winter on state record. The average winter temperature in Alaska was 12.9° F which was 9.3° F above the long-term average.
The average total of wintertime precipitation this year was 6.26 inches, which was below average by 0.53 inches. Across the western, central plains and southeastern regions of the United States, many states saw below average precipitation. As shown in the image above, the states of California, Nevada, Utah, and Kansas all saw below average precipitation, which led to a dry winter season, which ranked in the top ten of dry winter seasons for that state. The state of California, in particular, saw their second driest winter on record since 1977. California only received 33.7 inches of precipitation for the winter season. The Northern Rockies, Lower Mississippi Valley, Midwest, and the Northeast all experienced above average seasons of precipitation. In the Northeast, a series of Nor’easters helped boost precipitation values. Arkansas experienced their fourth wettest winter season since 1949. After such a dry autumn, the state received 160% above average precipitation throughout the three month time period! To check out more climate statistics from this winter be sure to click on the following link For more information on global and regional climate topics and stories be sure to click here! ©2018 Meteorologist Shannon Scully How May Melting Arctic and Antarctic Sea Ice Affect the World's Oceans? (credit: NASA Earth)3/26/2018 
DISCUSSION: Over the past couple of decades, a major issue which has come up into social media and scientific publication headlines again and again is the increased rate of melting Arctic and Antarctic sea ice. The reason for such concerns goes well beyond the physical ramifications of melting sea ice which include (but are certainly not limited to) global sea-level rises. More specifically, concerns pertaining to more rapid seasonal and net annual melting of Earth's net sea ice include the fact that melting sea ice may also gradually affect the behavior and strength of various global ocean currents. This is of particularly great concern to scientists around the world since global ocean currents are a key component of Earth's net ocean-atmosphere system. This is due to the fact that global ocean currents are responsible for the transfer of global heat energy between the tropical regions of the world, the mid-latitudes (i.e., where most people on Earth live and travel between), and the polar regions of the world.
Thus, if all of the sea ice on Earth were to (hypothetically) melt by the end of the 21st century, there would be legitimate concerns for the extent of the impacts of such large amounts of melted sea ice on the strength, orientation, and overall efficiency of critical ocean currents such as the North Atlantic Current or the North Pacific Current. Such a dramatic change in global seasonal and annual net sea ice coverage would likely begin to start triggering question(s) regarding the extent to which such major global sea ice deficits would affect the behavior of various ocean currents over the shorter-term (i.e., over the course of upcoming decades to centuries) or the longer-term (i.e., over the course of upcoming centuries to millennia). For example, would certain ocean currents be less efficient at transferring heat energy and therefore increase global energy imbalances? That is one of many questions being studied and researched now so as to better understand and anticipate what may happen in the future here on Earth. It is important to note that even a more accelerated change would still be gradual in the context of day-to-day scientific research, but should certainly not be ignored since this is a very real and concerning situation. Having said everything above, it is imperative to understand that changes to Earth's oceans in the context of both seasonal and annual changes in the net coverage of Arctic and Antarctic sea ice will not happen overnight. Yet, it is very important to understand some of the potential impacts more rapidly melting (and not recovering percentages) of Earth's sea ice may have on the global climate system. Therefore, as stewards of planet Earth, it is the responsibility of people living on Earth to take as many measures as possible to help mitigate future man-based contributions towards this ongoing global threat. To read the full story as published by NASA Earth, click on the following link: https://climate.nasa.gov/news/2700/arctic-wintertime-sea-ice-extent-is-among-lowest-on-record/#.WrVL0xx4SSE.twitter. To learn more about neat stories pertaining to global climate issues, be sure to click on the following link: https://www.globalweatherclimatecenter.com/climate. © 2018 Meteorologist Jordan Rabinowitz  DISCUSSION: Spring is important for fruit trees. Spring welcomes trees into a warmer season in which they begin to bloom. What you may not realize, however, is that colder weather is necessary for fruit trees to survive. Fruit grown on trees, such as apples, cherries, and peaches, account for $4 billion annually in the U.S. Fruit trees often begin blossoming in the spring, but they also rely on winter dormancy in order to fruit properly. The rest period that fruit trees rely on, also known as a cooling period, allows trees to properly chill before spring. The ideal temperature for most trees is 45 degrees Fahrenheit, which is within the 35 to 50 degrees threshold. When temperatures fall to or below freezing, there is no benefit to the trees. While most trees thrive in winter dormancy at 45 degrees Fahrenheit, different fruits require varying amounts of hours at these temperatures. Peach and apple trees both require roughly anywhere between 400 to 1100 hours. Cherry trees require the longest cooling period, with a needed minimum of 1,000 hours to thrive. This is part of the reason why cherry trees are located in cooler climates, such as Michigan and Washington. Peaches are found in states with milder climates like California and Georgia. Fruits are unable to bud unless they have been provided a long enough cooling period. Once the cooling period has ended, the fruit trees will bud. Whether trees bud on time, early, or late is all dependent on whether the tree has met not only its warming period but its cooling period requirements. The length of the cooling period and warming periods, or the maximum amount of days above 40 degrees Fahrenheit, will determine when the trees bud. Climate change, however, is spelling trouble for the fruit trees. Shorter, milder winters result in earlier springs. With fruit trees not being allowed to properly complete a cooling period, the areas where certain fruits will be able to grow will change and shift. Areas that depend on fruit crops heavily for local or regional economy will suffer from decreased yields. A changing climate also spells trouble for pollinating animals, whose migratory patterns are dependent on when certain seasons change. February 2017 brought a perfect example of the changing climate’s effects on fruit trees. A record-warm February allowed apple and peach trees to blossom early in the Southeast. However, a freeze in March caused damage to those same crops. In addition to other fruits, the damage to agriculture in the Southeast ended up being $1 billion during Winter 2017. Unfortunately, crop losses are just one problem that will result from a changing climate. To learn more about other interesting stories related to global climate issues, be sure to click here! ©2018 Weather Forecaster Jacob Dolinger  DISCUSSION: Many infectious diseases thrive in warm temperatures. It is predicted that overall global temperatures will continue to increase. As climate change progresses, the risk of getting an infectious disease may increase.
Infectious diseases can be found in insects commonly known as vectors. Some diseases can be spread from Aedes, Culex, and Anopheles mosquitoes, all of which live in tropical areas. Zika virus, malaria, dengue, and West Nile virus are just some among the list of mosquito-borne diseases. The World Health Organization (WHO) recorded over 438,000 worldwide deaths in 2015 from malaria alone. As climate warms, the geographic range where these mosquitoes can survive will increase, resulting in more widespread disease. Over time, humans may become more prone to disease because of climate change. Research by Thomas A. Burke, Ph.D., states that climate change could cause stress on agriculture causing malnutrition in humans. There are also potential changes in the human immune system due to an increased flux of ultraviolet radiation caused by climate change. Not only could climate change increase the spread of diseases, but it could make humans more susceptible to them, too. Warming temperatures that are habitable for mosquitoes are predicted for the southern U.S. According to the New York Times, Florida is expecting deadly heat waves that flare up in the summer and rising sea levels that will eat up the shore. The heating of Florida will make it a perfect environment for mosquitoes to thrive in. This could potentially create an enormous outbreak of disease in the United States. An increase in temperature and humidity causes mosquitoes to bite more, boosts reproduction rates, and lengthens their breeding season, says Physicians for Social Responsibility (PSR). PSR also states that recent studies suggest that when temperatures rise, mosquitoes that carry disease migrate to higher elevations, creating a higher risk for people. Luckily, there are ways to prevent contraction of a mosquito-borne disease. People should equip their homes with protective barriers such as screens on windows and doors. It is a good idea to wear long-sleeved shirts and long pants to cover skin. Also, always wear bug spray when outside in hot and humid weather! The most long-term solution to this problem would be for humans to reduce all activities that contribute to global warming. Maybe then, mosquito-borne spread of disease will decrease. (Credit: WHO, PSR, Thomas A. Burke, New York Times) To learn more about other interesting stories related to global climate issues, be sure to click here! ©2018 Weather Forecaster Brittany Connelly  Factors that inflict climatic changes Part 1:
DISCUSSION: When it comes to the climate system there are numerous significant factors that play a role in affecting it. Permafrost, for instance, is a factor within climate that can have detrimental effects if improperly preserved. For those who don’t know, permafrost is defined as ground (whether that be soil or rock) that does not reach temperatures above 0 degrees Celsius for at least two consecutive years. For this reason, the heaviest concentration of permafrost can be found in the Arctic. Today, permafrost covers roughly 5.8 million square miles, locking in vast amounts of carbon and methane from dead plants over the past decades and centuries. This frozen soil contains more carbon than what is already present in the atmosphere. Acting as a greenhouse gas “freezer,” this soil preserves gases that, if released, could have substantial impacts on the atmosphere. Recently, permafrost has been contributing to the rise in greenhouse gases in a self-feeding cycle which is intensifying the very changes that are producing its decay. With the current increase of up to 2 degrees Celsius just within this century alone, it is estimated that 40-100 million tons of carbon per year could be released from permafrost and peat. Peat is made up of dead organic material with much of it lying below permafrost. As permafrost melts away—releasing carbon and methane—it reveals even more carbon material to be released into the atmosphere. With the release of this CO2, an estimated 0.29 degrees Celsius rise in temperature could occur on top of the already 1 to 2 degree increase. The release of carbon can come from carbon dioxide and methane stored within the frozen ground. If bacteria interact with methane, the bacteria can break the methane down into smaller amounts of carbon dioxide. If not, methane can be directly released into the atmosphere. Methane is 20 to 25 times more destructive than carbon dioxide and directly contributes to a net warming of the Earth’s climate system. Although methane has a far lesser shelf life in the atmosphere than carbon dioxide, it possesses 80 times more heat-trapping potential. With both methane and carbon dioxide being stored within permafrost, it is vital to preserve this aspect of the climate system. A positive feedback effect, which would warm the climate, would take place if substantial amounts of permafrost began to melt away. Permafrost is a vital component not only to the climate system but to the entire Earth as a whole. Like said above, consequences could occur if action to preserve permafrost is not taken. To learn more about other interesting stories related to global climate issues, be sure to click on the following link: www.globalweatherclimatecenter.com/climate ©2018 Weather Forecaster Alec Kownacki  DISCUSSION: As science and society head further into the 21st Century, there is no debate that climate change (and variability thereof) is at the forefront of many people's and scientist's minds. Among the many concerns regarding both natural and anthropogenic (i.e., man-made or man-influenced) factors which have been thoroughly researched and scientifically linked as being connected to global climate change, one of the bigger topics has been the potential impact of Arctic permafrost. Arctic permafrost is essentially long-lasting snow which contains incredibly large amounts of carbon which has been deposited and stored over the course of many years, decades, centuries, and even millennia in some cases. Thus, one of the premiere concerns from the global climate science community is the net warming trend which the Earth is currently undergoing.
As the Earth continues to gradually warm throughout the rest of the 21st century, there is a very real possibility that much of this carbon may be released into the global atmosphere. Hence, if such a process were to begin to occur and potentially be invigorated by ongoing or even quicker rates of net planetary warming trends, this could release even more carbon into the global atmosphere at an even quicker pace. If this were to become a reality, it would amplify the effects of the infamous greenhouse effect which is fueled by the addition of carbon to the atmosphere in addition other variables such as water vapor, volcanic ash, and more. Attached below are a few exact excerpts from the study conducted and published by the corresponding group of NASA research scientists. "Permafrost in the coldest northern Arctic -- formerly thought to be at least temporarily shielded from global warming by its extreme environment -- will thaw enough to become a permanent source of carbon to the atmosphere in this century, with the peak transition occurring in 40 to 60 years, according to a new NASA-led study. The study calculated that as thawing continues, total carbon emissions from this region over the next 300 years or so will be 10 times as much as all human-produced fossil fuel emissions in the single year 2016. The study, led by scientist Nicholas Parazoo of NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, California, found that warmer, more southerly permafrost regions will not become a carbon source until the end of the 22nd century, even though they are thawing now. That is because other changing Arctic processes will counter the effect of thawing soil in these regions. Permafrost is soil that has remained frozen for years or centuries under topsoil. It contains carbon-rich organic material, such as leaves, that froze without decaying. As rising Arctic air temperatures cause permafrost to thaw, the organic material decomposes and releases its carbon to the atmosphere in the form of the greenhouse gases carbon dioxide and methane." To read the full story on this issue as published by NASA, click on the following link: https://www.nasa.gov/feature/jpl/far-northern-permafrost-may-unleash-carbon-within-decades. To learn more about other interesting stories related to global climate issues, be sure to click on the following link: www.globalweatherclimatecenter.com/climate! © 2018 Meteorologist Jordan Rabinowitz Ski Resorts Work To Limit Their Seasonal Carbon Footprint (credit: Yale Climate Connections)3/12/2018  DISCUSSION: During the course of a given Winter season, ski resorts located both across the United States and skiing regions around the world aim to provide the best possible experience for their guests. Having said that, one of the premiere concerns in looking to the future of sustaining ski resort longevity is the ability of ski resorts to provide a consistent presence of natural and/or artificial snow. However, one of the biggest problems with the future ability for ski resorts to thrive is the prospect of a gradually warming climate. This is due to the fact that there would be a greater challenge for a ski resort to maintain its core integrity with a greater potential for an increasingly larger percentage of annual precipitation to be in the form of rain as opposed to snow. Thus, ski resorts from across the United States have already seen and seized this issue as a platform for advocating for greater awareness and active change to avoid further contributing to the already highly amplified issue of global climate change. Attached below is an exact excerpt from the corresponding article which was written by staff from the Yale Climate Communications Division.
"Since the program started in 2011, more than 40 resorts have participated. Their strategies for reducing emissions range from adding solar panels to retrofitting lighting systems and grooming the slopes with hybrid vehicles.In total, the resorts have reduced their greenhouse gas emissions by 44,000 metric tons. That’s equivalent to taking more than 9,000 cars off the road for a year." To read the full story which includes the above text, click on the following link: www.yaleclimateconnections.org/2018/03/ski-resorts-band-together-to-cut-pollution/! To learn more about other interesting stories pertaining to global climate issues, be sure to click on the following link: https://www.globalweatherclimatecenter.com/climate! © 2018 Meteorologist Jordan Rabinowitz  Extended MEI (Multivariate ENSO Index) uses historical bi-monthly records of sea-level pressure and sea surface temperature over the Pacific to define El Niño/ La Niña years. The red peaks represent positive departures and indicate a warm phase. The years with a large negatives mark cold phases (shown in blue). The near-zero years are neutral years. The largest peak from 1915-1965 is reached around the year 1941. La Niña has been a recent "cold button" issue with equatorial sea surface temperatures below average across the central and eastern Pacific. However, many sources have described 1941 as being a strong El Niño year and even as one of the top 10 strongest and longest El Niño events of the 20th Century. El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is one of the most important coupled ocean-atmosphere phenomena associated with global climate variability on interannual time scales, typically defined by tropical Pacific sea surface temperature and air pressure. The changes in sea surface temperatures in the Pacific not only affect the distribution and strength of precipitation in the United States, but also result in modified atmospheric circulations that can change the positions of the jet stream and storm tracks in the Northern Hemisphere.
Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) is a term used to describe multi-decadal variability of sea surface temperature anomalies in the northern Pacific. During a “warm” or positive phase, the western North Pacific becomes cool and part of the eastern ocean warms. The southern U.S. (including New Mexico) receives more precipitation than usual during El Niño, particularly during the cool seasons of winter and spring. Generally, ENSO conditions are likely to precede an extreme precipitation anomaly. The relationship between ENSO and PDO is debated, but the prevailing hypothesis is that PDO is caused by an increasingly positive El Niño-Southern Oscillation combined with stochastic atmospheric forcing. The Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI) is an index of ENSO cycle that can be used to define El Niño/ La Niña event years (not including PDO), showing the duration and severity of the ENSO events. The only other year that comes close to the 1941 PDO value (+1.99) is the year 1987 with an annual average PDO index of +1.82. Multiple months of large precipitation amounts cannot be attributed to a strong monsoon or a strong wintertime ENSO anomaly alone, but the the combination of positive Pacific Decadal Oscillation values with a moderate El Niño can certainly enhance the precipitation anomaly. Another positive ENSO/PDO in the future may lead to above average precipitation, but it is unlikely that we will see values equaling those of the 1941 precipitation anomaly. To learn more about the role of ENSO/PDO and climate, please click here! © 2018 Meteorologist Sharon Sullivan |
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