DISCUSSION: As of 0300 UTC, according to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC), Hurricane Lane continues to propagate westward about 735 miles East Southeast of Hilo, and 950 miles East Southeast of Honolulu. Lane is producing maximum sustained winds at approximately 120 miles per hour (mph), making this system a significant Category 3 on the Saffir-Simpson scale.
The CPHC has not currently issued any watches or warnings, however this will be a system to which the CPHC will monitor due to its proximity to the Hawaiian island chain. Some weakening is expected but errors still exist in the model forecast making the subtropical ridge a difficult feature to resolve.
The Global Forecast System (GFS) model has some indication that the storm will past to the south of the Hawaiian Islands and with the presence of a front to the West of the islands may push the system Thursday into the islands, providing a significant breakup of the system as it crosses the Koolaus, Waianae Range and Haleakala. Tuesday should provide some increased indication of model error in addition to the presence of hurricane hunters currently observing the storm. Data collected from the aircraft should assist in resolving localized errors.
Stay tuned for additional information on Hurricane Lane at the Global Weather and Climate Center!
© 2018 Meteorologist Jessica Olsen
US Department of Commerce, & NOAA. (2004, November 07). Central Pacific Hurricane Center - Honolulu, Hawai`i. Retrieved from http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc/