Irwin and Hilary Concerns for SoCal Coast (Credit: Meteorologist Jessica Olsen)
DISCUSSION: As cyclonic activity in the Eastern Pacific develops, it has become a concern for the Hawaiian Islands yet has brought some unconventional interest in the Californian coast. The concern regarding California and this activity is the Fujiwhara effect.
The National Hurricane Center in conjunction with the Central Pacific Hurricane Center are currently reporting Tropical Storm Irwin and Hurricane Hilary in the Eastern North Pacific and Tropical Depression Greg in the Central Pacific. In particular, Tropical Storm Irwin and Hurricane Hilary are storms to monitor as they could bring dangerous surf to locations in Southern California.
The Fujiwhara Effect according to the American Meteorological Society (AMS) is, ”the tendency of two nearby tropical cyclones to rotate cyclonically about each other as a result of their circulations’ mutual advection.” However rare, the AMS notes that this frequently may occur in the northwestern Pacific basin, while increasingly rare in other oceanic basins. The Fujiwhara Effect is currently being seen with Kulap and Noru in the Western Pacific.
Irwin and Hilary’s close proximity could showcase this rare possibility that Irwin may be absorbed into Hilary. If Hilary interacts with Irwin the hurricane is expected to weaken as it moves into cooler waters in the next few days. Current intensity of hurricane Hilary indicates a strong Category 2 with max winds around 90 knots with minimal changes in the short-term with overall weakening in the near future. Model guidance indicating that merging of these two storms could potentially happen by the end of the work week. The probability would bring large swaths of moisture into Southern California with an onslaught of rough conditions for the state including heavy rain, high surf and flash flooding.
For more information on current storms visit the Global Weather and Climate Center!
© Meteorologist Jessica Olsen
Why is Hurricane Fernanda Fluctuating In Intensity? (credit: NWS NHC, NOAA NESDIS)
DISCUSSION: As we head deeper into the evening and overnight hours of this Mid-July Saturday (07/15/2017), Hurricane Fernanda continues to remain a very dangerous tropical cyclone as it continues to churn over the open waters of the Eastern Pacific Ocean. Having said that, it is not a threat to any land whatsoever as it remains a very powerful hurricane up to this point and will likely remain that way for at least the next 24 to 48 hours. Beyond that point, as discussed in the video briefing above, Hurricane Fernanda is expected to gradually weaken as the system moves into a much less favorable environment. To learn more about this current situation surrounding Hurricane Fernanda, watch the brief video briefing above for more details.
To learn more about this and other high-impact weather events occurring across the Central and Eastern Pacific Ocean, be sure to click here!
©2017 Meteorologist Jordan Rabinowitz
DISCUSSION: Over the past 24 to 48 hours, there was a very impressive example of tropical cyclone intensification on display across the open waters of the Eastern Pacific Ocean. This recent tropical cyclone intensification was characterized by Tropical Storm Fernanda intensifying to hurricane strength by Thursday evening. Furthermore, within the next 30 hours following that time, Hurricane Fernanda underwent a period of fairly rapid intensification as Hurricane Fernanda went from a Category 1 to a Category 4 hurricane. As it stands right now, Hurricane Fernanda is a Category 4 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 145 MPH with a minimum central pressure of 947 mb. Hence, this is a very intense and dangerous storm for any and all boats/ships which are trying to pass through that part of the Eastern Pacific Ocean. In looking at the following couple of days, the oceanic and atmospheric environments which Fernanda will be traversing will remain quite conducive for this tropical cyclone to either further intensify or maintain its current intensity. This will primarily be due to a combination of warm sea-surface temperatures and relatively low vertical wind shear which are ideal for periods of tropical cyclone intensification.
To learn more about other high-impact weather events occurring across the Central and/or Eastern Pacific Ocean, be sure to click here!
©2017 Meteorologist Jordan Rabinowitz