The Importance and Value of Tracking Pacific Low-Pressure Systems During the Winter Season.12/25/2018 
DISCUSSION: During a given Winter season, many people around the world find themselves either yearning for or despising the occurrence of major winter storms. Moreover, many people will find themselves wondering where and how far away such winter storms begin in the first place and how they sometimes evolve into the more notorious regionally travel-disrupting winter blasts which airports, highways, and even people living in snowstorm-prone regions around the world have come to loathe at times. Quite often, the answer is surprisingly much more simplistic than one may think.
One of the most fundamental principles in atmospheric sciences is the reality that the Earth’s atmosphere world is effectively an interconnected fluid. Moreover, that all the energy and water vapor contained within Earth’s atmosphere is exchanged between the surface and the uppermost parts of the atmosphere on a routine basis. Hence, it is not a far-fetched concept to accept the fact that energy from extra-tropical low-pressure systems on one side of the Earth influence the development of extra-tropical cyclone events on the other side of the Earth. In taking that concept just a little bit further, an extra-tropical cyclone over the Central or Eastern Pacific Ocean can often provide the primary and/or the initial source of energy for a future or projected winter storm over any part of North America. More often than you may think, this is precisely what happens in some way, shape or form. Therefore, based on that logic, it is not a very far stretch of the imagination to understand why it becomes so critically important to monitor and keep track of low-pressure system development and evolution across the entire span of the Pacific Ocean. With the advent of advanced high-resolution satellite imagers such as the GOES-16 and GOES-17 satellites, this has become an even more practical endeavor for atmospheric forecasters and research scientists from around the world. This is because these newer, state-of-the-art satellite imaging platforms have now given the realm of atmospheric science the unique ability to study larger scale low-pressure system development (and details thereof) on a finer scale than ever before in recorded history. A great example of such research angles is captured in the Tweet attached above concerning a current low-pressure system which is impacting the Pacific Northwest region of the United States (courtesy of the National Weather Service office in Seattle, Washington). Such great scientific advancements in Earth-bound remote sensing capabilities are a revolutionary step forward in the current and future abilities of atmospheric science to better monitor and project the development of atmospheric phenomena (including but not limited to) winter storm development. This, it goes without saying that atmospheric science is certainly taking several major current and future steps in advancing the evolving abilities of current and future atmospheric as well as climate research. To learn more about other interesting weather and weather-related topics from across the Central and Eastern Pacific Ocean, be sure to click here! © 2018 Meteorologist Jordan Rabinowitz
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 Typical North American wintertime pattern during an El Nino winter (photo from NOAA).   The National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center (CPC) and International Research Institute (IRI) are forecasting a 70-75 % chance of El Niño formation to occur over the next couple of months. All current conditions and forecast models are on a trend to favor the formation of a weak to moderate El Niño phase. It has only been a year or so since the last El Niño phase that ended in 2016. It was the strongest El Niño phase since 1997-1998, lasting for two consecutive winters in the years of 2014-2016. La Niña, the opposite of El Niño, defined by below average sea surface temperatures, persisted for only a single winter from 2017-2018 before conditions in the equatorial Pacific started to again favor development of an El Niño this coming winter. El Niño is part of an irregularly periodic variation in winds and sea surface temperatures over the equatorial region in the eastern Pacific Ocean, called ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation). This tends to be erratic when it comes to seasonal phases with El Niño occuring every two to seven years. Although predicted to be weak, this phase will certainly bring varying weather patterns to the United States this winter. Between September 2017 and March 2018, sea surface temperatures (SST’s) in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean were below normal. Beginning in June of this year, these temperatures have started to increase, causing more positive SST anomalies. In September, the SST conditions climbed into an El Niño neutral phase. This means that neither El Niño or La Niña were present and that the climatic patterns over the equatorial Pacific ocean are near average. Since the past month of October, SST anomalies continued to increase, rising out of an El Niño neutral phase and into El Niño positive, meaning above average. In turn, due to the increase in SST anomalies, low level westerly wind anomalies where wind speeds and direction deviate from the average, are present with the strongest anomalies occurring over the Eastern Pacific. According to this recent observation of data, including model runs by the IRI and CPC, the development of weak to moderate El Niño within the next couple of months is highly likely. Our ocean SST’s are a large influence on climatic weather conditions for the United States. When El Niño forms, The SST’s are above normal in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific off the coast of Peru. Higher SST’s directly influence our weather by increasing air temperature and moisture flux on the surface. Warmer air is able to hold more moisture.This allows it to efficiently collect water vapor that evaporates off the ocean surface. Predominant eastern flowing winds called easterlies, flow over the Pacific picking up moisture and driving it west to east over the United States. More water vapor in the air can increase the amount of moisture that gets driven into the United States by the easterlies. Therefore, this increases the potential of precipitation in certain areas. With this change in moisture content and increased surface temperatures, the United States may see changes in average temperature and precipitation, depending on location. With this years winter weather outlook, predicted by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association (NOAA) there is a probability of seeing above average temperatures for the Western, Northeastern and central plains of the United States. Above average precipitation is expected in the southern United States while below average precipitation is expected in the Great Lakes region, northern Idaho, Montana and Dakotas area. Whether these seasonal outlooks will pan out, we have an idea of what to expect for this coming winter with El Niño in effect. It is important to know that long range forecasts like winter weather outlooks are merely an estimation of what the winter will look like. It is good to keep up with day to day forecasts in your area for the best updates on winter weather as we move through season. © Meteorologist Alex Maynard For more updates on the eastern and central Pacific Ocean click here. Hurricane Walaka Decimated An Ecologically Vital Hawaiian Island (Credit: Honolulu Civil Beat)10/30/2018  Chip Fletcher/Facebook A remote Hawaiian island was completely wiped off the map after one of the most powerful hurricanes ever recorded in the Pacific, Hurricane Walaka, barreled through the most northwestern islands of the state.
The French Frigate Shoals is part of Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument in Hawaii’s Northwestern Islands was home to East Island, a small yet ecologically vital island. The island was wiped off the map after the destructive Category 4 hurricane washed the sediments associated with the island north over a nearby coral reef. The island is extremely important to local marine life, including Hawaiian green sea turtles and Hawaiian monk seals. Almost 100% of Hawaiian green sea turtles breed in the French Frigate Shoals, and roughly half of that percentage would breed on East Island. Hawaiian monk seals also nurtured their pups on East Island. There are approximately 1,400 Hawaiian monk seals in the state; over 1,000 live in Hawaii’s Northwestern Islands. These animals are considered critically endangered under the Endangered Species Act. Charles Littnan, a conservation biologist with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association (NOAA), told the Honolulu Civil Beat that it is impossible to tell what the effects of the loss of habitat will be on both the monk seals and sea turtles since most of the sea creatures had left the island for the season. The odd thing about the disappearance of East Island is scientists had predicted that East Island would probably be underwater in future decades. However, they expected this to be a slow process. Instead, a Category 4 hurricane did the damage overnight. It is unclear whether the storm was made stronger due to climate change, according to Randy Kosaki, NOAA’s deputy superintendent for research and field operations at Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument. What can be concluded, however, is that as oceans get warmer, hurricanes will be provided with more energy to strengthen. Through the process of Wind Induced Surface Heat Exchange, or WISHE, tropical cyclones gain strength via latent and sensible heating from the warm ocean waters. No specific hurricane can be attributed to climate change, however it is possible that stronger hurricanes will occur more frequently. It may seem safe to say that as long as these hurricanes hit sparsely-populated areas of the world such as East Island then civilization should be fine. A disruption of oceanic ecology, however, will prove just as dismal for the future of human civilization. If the effects of Hurricane Florence and Hurricane Michael have taught society anything, it is that attention must be towards the extreme strength of natural disasters. If a whole society is aware of the perils of natural disasters, we can adapt to more extreme disasters and minimize the aftermath. For more on Central Pacific weather happenings, check here! ©2018 Weather Forecaster Jacob Dolinger A Convective Explosion with a Developing Hurricane (Imagery credit: www.tropicaltidbits.com)10/1/2018   DISCUSSION: As of earlier this evening, there were several rather intense tropical cyclones spinning in different ocean basins around the world. However, among all these tropical cyclones, there was one particularly interesting tropical cyclone among the large global cluster of ongoing storms. This particularly interesting tropical cyclone was Hurricane Sergio. Even though Hurricane Sergio is only a Category 1 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Intensity scale as of tonight, there was something rather interesting and profound which occurred tonight as this storm was intensifying.
This particularly neat aspect of Hurricane Sergio this evening was the fact that the deep convection which fired on the eastern half of the inner core of Hurricane Sergio has cloud-top temperatures as cold as around -90°C. This is significant in the context of an intensifying tropical cyclone since it is not all that often that one will observe core convection have such cold cloud-tops even during periods of rapid intensification which it did not appear was occurring in association with Hurricane Sergio as of the past few hours. Having said that, it is worth noting that even without a period of rapid intensification occurring with a given tropical cyclone, you can still get very deep, intense convection at times. This situation which is captured both in the image attached above as well as the brief animated gif of the period during which this deep convection “explosion” occurred. What is most impressive about this convective burst on the eastern half of Hurricane Sergio is the fact that it occurred very unexpectedly with no forecasts being reasonably certain that this sort of convective burst would occur at the time it did. That being said, by the same token, it should also be noted that this storm had been moving over sea-surface temperatures greater than 26°C which is warm enough to support the intensification of tropical cyclones. Nonetheless, this just goes to show that there is still much for atmospheric science to learn about tropical cyclones to be able to make further improvements to tropical cyclone intensity forecasting. To learn more about other interesting and/or high-impact weather events occurring across the Central and Eastern Pacific Ocean, be sure to click here! © 2018 Meteorologist Jordan Rabinowitz  Image Courtesy: National Hurricane Center Discussion: Hurricane Olivia as of 0300 UTC located about 1300 miles west of Baja California, currently under the National Hurricane Center (NHC), Miami, Florida area of responsibility, until Olivia propagates into the Central Pacific area of responsibility in the coming days.
According to the NHC, minimum central pressure is approximately 948mb, with no current watches or warning in effect. Hurricane Olivia is a major hurricane with maximum sustained winds near 130 mph, making Olivia a category 4 on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Some changes are expected in the coming days with gradual weakening to occur especially as Olivia encounters cooler sea-surface temperatures, and some shear northeast of the island chain. The National Environmental Satellite Data and Information Service (NESDIS) indicates temperatures around the Hawaiian Islands are ranging from 26º/27ºC. Cooler than Lane's passage however still warm enough to provide latent heat to the system. Olivia is propagating West Northwestward at 14mph. 0300 UTC model indications put the hurricane tracking westward to the islands. While still early to determine exact track, now is the time to consider preparation ahead of possible disruptions similar to Lane's nearby passage. For continued updates on Hurricane Olivia and other weather events impacting the world visit the Global Weather and Climate Center! © 2018 Meteorologist Jessica Olsen Referenced: Center, National Hurricane. “Olivia.” National Hurricane Center, 1 Jan. 2001, www.nhc.noaa.gov/.  Image Courtesy: NOAA - GOES DISCUSSION: As of 0300 UTC, according to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC), Hurricane Lane continues to propagate westward about 735 miles East Southeast of Hilo, and 950 miles East Southeast of Honolulu. Lane is producing maximum sustained winds at approximately 120 miles per hour (mph), making this system a significant Category 3 on the Saffir-Simpson scale.
The CPHC has not currently issued any watches or warnings, however this will be a system to which the CPHC will monitor due to its proximity to the Hawaiian island chain. Some weakening is expected but errors still exist in the model forecast making the subtropical ridge a difficult feature to resolve. The Global Forecast System (GFS) model has some indication that the storm will past to the south of the Hawaiian Islands and with the presence of a front to the West of the islands may push the system Thursday into the islands, providing a significant breakup of the system as it crosses the Koolaus, Waianae Range and Haleakala. Tuesday should provide some increased indication of model error in addition to the presence of hurricane hunters currently observing the storm. Data collected from the aircraft should assist in resolving localized errors. Stay tuned for additional information on Hurricane Lane at the Global Weather and Climate Center! © 2018 Meteorologist Jessica Olsen Referenced: US Department of Commerce, & NOAA. (2004, November 07). Central Pacific Hurricane Center - Honolulu, Hawai`i. Retrieved from http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc/ Respect for the Recent Show which Hurricane Hector Put on! (credit: Meteorologist Jordan Rabinowitz)8/15/2018 
DISCUSSION: Within the past two weeks and then some, the world had the opportunity to watch Hurricane Hector evolve in quite an impressive fashion. As is shown in the animated radar loop above per the radar site in southern Hawaii, there was quite an impressive radar display on-hand for all those who had the chance to observe this intense tropical cyclone evolve. As the above radar animation, you can see how at that point in time, Major Hurricane Hector was quickly approaching southern Hawaii at a distance of around 150 to 160 miles to the south. Thus, it was far enough away to minimize any and all impacts which were felt on the southernmost island in the state of Hawaii, but still close enough for the radar site to capture the shorter-term evolution of this intense tropical cyclone.
In taking a closer look at Hurricane Hector, you can see how Hector maintained a fairly tightly-wrapped and compact circulation which did not change its course all that much during the course of this radar animation. For that reason, this nearly consistent westerly motion allowed for some more reasonable visual analysis of additional features associated with Hurricane Hector to be studied. For example, as the eye of Hurricane Hector approached a position which was almost exactly perpendicular to the radar site in southern Hawaii, you can begin to see the deepest convection associated with the eye wall of what was a Major Hurricane Hector. In addition, you can also see the feature which is most commonly referred to as the moat of an intense tropical cyclone. The moat is the region which is most often found between the eye wall of a tropical cyclone and the first outer rain-band. The only catch with Hurricane Hector was that Hurricane Hector was an annular tropical cyclone during most of its peak intensity period which allowed the tropical cyclone to have near-perfectly symmetric rain bands during this period of time. This is impressive since the large majority of tropical cyclones do not maintain a classic annular structure for a multi-day period since oceanic sea-surface temperatures as well as low/mid-level atmospheric environmental conditions have to be just right. To learn more about other high-impact weather events occurring across Central and Eastern Pacific Ocean, be sure to click here! © 2018 Meteorologist Jordan Rabinowitz Putting the recent Hurricane Hector into Perspective. (credit: Meteorologist Michael Lowry)8/13/2018 
DISCUSSION: There is no debate that over the past two weeks and then some, Hurricane Hector put on quite a show across the Eastern, Central, and now Western Pacific Ocean basins. Even at the present time, Hector still remains to be a tropical storm over in the Western Pacific Ocean basin. However, the main attraction when it comes to the 2018 Hurricane Hector was the performance this tropical cyclone put on across the Eastern and Central Pacific Ocean basins since around 28 July through 11 August. During that time, Hurricane Hector went on to impress the global meteorological and non-meteorological communities alike with a very persistent ability to remain a powerful tropical cyclone. Moreover, during that period of time, it went on to pass well to the south of the state of Hawaii. In particular, Hurricane Hector ended up moving within 150 miles or so of the southern-most island which staved off the worst of the storm's impacts.
It also helped that the circulation of Hector was rather tightly-wrapped throughout its lifetime without much fluctuation in size throughout most of its existence as a hurricane across the Eastern and Central Pacific Ocean basins. Furthermore, during a good portion of its time as a hurricane, it also developed and maintained what is referred to as an annular structure which is where there is nearly a perfect energy distribution through the storm's inner core. What was most impressive about Hurricane Hector was how long the annular structure persisted within this particular tropical cyclone. Often times, annular tropical cyclones form when a tropical cyclone moves over abundantly warm ocean water and very minimal shear with allows tropical cyclones to sometimes develop near-perfectly balanced energy distributions. However, there are often variations with respect to how long tropical cyclones maintain their annular structure for. Yet, in the case of Hurricane Hector, there was an unusually long persistence which was almost the perfect scenario for a tropical cyclone including the fact that there were little to impacts to land. Attached above is a neat graphic (courtesy of Meteorologist Michael Lowry from the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) and the National Hurricane Center (NHC)). In the above graphic, you can see the other hurricanes which have passed within 150 miles of Hawaii since 1949 which helps to put things in perspective in the context of the recent track of Hurricane Hector. Though it certainly was not the closest hurricane to approach and/or impact the U.S. state of Hawaii, there is still a lot of be said for the show this powerful tropical cyclone put on in the context of the state-of-the-art GOES-16 (i.e., GOES-East) satellite imager. To learn more about other high-impact weather events occurring across the Central and Eastern Pacific Ocean, be sure to click here! © 2018 Meteorologist Jordan Rabinowitz  Image Courtesy: NOAA Discussion: With the National Hurricane Center (NHC) in Miami issuing advisories ahead of Hurricane Hector, a category 2 hurricane in the Eastern Pacific, Hector is expected to move into the Central Pacific Hurricane Centers’ (CPHC) authority shortly. The forecast advisory issued at 0300 UTC Friday August 3rd, 2018 by the NHC indicates that the hurricane center is located near 14.1N 126.9W with westward propagation at 11 knots (kt). It is approximately 1900 miles east-southeast of Hilo, and about 2095 miles east-southeast of Honolulu. Estimated minimum central pressure is 973 millibars (mb), with maximum sustained winds at 95kt with gusts to 115kt. Hector is expected to continue westward propagation over the next several days, especially with a ridge to the north helping to drive the hurricane towards the Central Pacific. Little change is expected after Hector’s recent rapid intensification due to the intrusion of some dry air, shear and the shift towards cooler ocean waters. GOES Visible also indicating a lack of clear eye identification at 0430 UTC (NHC Miami). The National Weather Service has offered information regarding hurricane preparation:
Stay up to date with additional forecast and preparedness information at the Global Weather and Climate Center! © 2018 Meteorologist Jessica Olsen Referenced: Beven. “National Hurricane Center.” NHC, 1 Jan. 2001, www.nhc.noaa.gov/?epac#Hector. US Department of Commerce, and NOAA. “What to Do Before the Tropical Storm or Hurricane.” National Weather Service, NOAA's National Weather Service, 1 June 2018, www.weather.gov/safety/hurricane-plan.  DISCUSSION: It should come as no surprise that Hawai’i offers an unmatched amount of total days with sun including partly sunny days. With an estimated 271 total days of sun (the sum of sunny plus partly sunny days) in Honolulu, 276 total days in Kahului, or even 240 in Lihue, optimal locations for prime solar action.
Even with partly sunny days, days with cloud covering from 40-70% of the sky during the daytime at least 181 of them can be seen in Honolulu, 184 in Lihue, 145 in Kahului and 132 in Hilo. With all of this radiation from the sun, what could this mean for potential businesses wishing to harness the power in which nearly 76% of the time the sun is emitting partly sunny to sunny rays in Kahului? Well for one entity, the University of Hawai’i at its Maui College campus has taken the necessary steps to become one of the first to derive 100 percent of its energy from on-site photovoltaic system (PV) coupled with battery storage. Jointly working with Johnson Controls and Pacific Current, the Maui location is able to exploit the sun to its fullest extent and heavily reduce their carbon footprint by decreasing fossil fuel consumption with the addition of the storage system to their campus. While O’ahu is still working its way towards a diminished fossil fuel imprint it will still have some ways to go as the “PV plus storage system will be able to eliminate the institutions fossil fuel based energy altogether when it goes into effect in 2019,” according to Lulu Chang of Digital Trends. By 2019 it is expected that the total on-site capacity will be 2.8 MW of solar PV and 13. 2 MWh of battery distributed storage to the UH Maui College, while O’ahu campus gains are expect to meet 7.7 MW of solar PV and 28.6 MWh of battery storage in the near future. For other articles on solar radiation, visit the Global Weather and Climate Center! ©2018 Meteorologist Jessica Olsen Image Courtesy: University of Hawai’i | Maui College  Image Courtesy: NOAA DISCUSSION: March 1st 2018, the GOES-S satellite was launch by an Atlas V rocket as part of a new set of geostationary satellites aimed at gaining a larger presence of high-resolution coverage in the Western Hemisphere. Recently renamed GOES-17 (due to its now final orbit, 22,300 miles in space) joins GOES-16, launched in 2016, as the GOES West operational satellite until 2036 designed for improved meteorological applications.
GOES-17 will provide assistance to atmospheric scientists in a variety of applications:
The benefit of high-resolution coverage over the Northeastern Pacific Ocean proves to be one of the largest of concern for the Western Hemisphere, in particular the United States. GOES-16 is currently providing adequate coverage as the GOES-East position, however used in conjunction with GOES-17 as GOES-West, coverage will view “the west coast of Africa to New Zealand,” of importance is Hawaii, Alaska and the Northeast Pacific. By adding this satellite to the GOES family, forecasts are expected to improve by adding the ability to identify wildfires, fog formation and dissipation (specific to aviation operations), Pacific hurricane events, information on synoptic systems such as the Pineapple Express, tracking sea ice extent, and other large scale atmospheric events that brings widespread precipitation to the western. U.S, that currently have lower resolution scales. For more information on remote sensing products visit the Global Weather and Climate Center! © 2018 Meteorologist Jessica Olsen Reference: “GOES-R Series.” GOES-R Series | NOAA National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service (NESDIS), www.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES-R-Series-Satellites.  A powerful 7.8 magnitude earthquake sent many Alaskans staggering out of bed at 1230 am last week and triggering a tsunami warning shortly thereafter, a common occurrence for locations along the Ring of Fire. The Ring of Fire is a long string of volcanoes and seismic activity along the Pacific Ocean, stretching from New Zealand, Japan, Russia, Alaska, and down the coast of North and South America. About 90% of the world’s earthquakes occur along this semicircular ring. The Ring of Fire is made up of huge tectonic plates (or slabs of the Earth’s crust) that fit together like pieces of a puzzle. The plates are constantly moving atop a layer of solid and molten rock (called Earth’s mantle) and may crash into each other or move one on top of the other. As the pressure builds, the fault ruptures as the plates snap back to their original place and release that energy in the form of an earthquake.
The epicenter of this particular earthquake occurred 175 miles southeast of Kodiak, Alaska on January 23, 2018. At least 60 aftershocks and the sounds of warning sirens prompted communities in Kodiak, Seward, and Sitka to evacuate amidst a tsunami warning. Coastal areas along Washington, Oregon, California and Hawaii were under a tsunami watch. After about 4 hours, all tsunami warnings and watches were canceled due to smaller wave heights than expected. The highest recorded waves were about half a foot near Old Bay Harbor. But, why didn’t this earthquake trigger a bigger tsunami? When an earthquake ruptures, the displacement of the seafloor causes the water above it to also become displaced. The movement causes waves to travel in all directions at the speed of a jet plane, just as ripples are created when a rock is thrown into a pond. This earthquake was a strike-slip event near the Aleutian Trench, where the Pacific Plate and North American Plate slid past each other horizontally with no large vertical displacement of the seafloor. Although a strong earthquake like this one has the potential to cause a large tsunami, the amount of water displaced by horizontal movement of the crust is limited and the chance of a larger tsunami in this case less likely It is thought that in a changing climate, earthquakes and tsunamis might become more frequent. Small changes in the mass of the Earth’s surface and even weather patterns may have an effect on volcanic activity due to the recession of ice. With the weight of the ice pushing down on the crust, taking that ice off could trigger earthquakes as the crust bounces back up and releases that pressure. Even over the last 100 years, faults in Alaska have become more active with the loss of ice and moving as the accumulated strain is lifted. To learn more about the Ring of Fire and central/ eastern Pacific Ocean, please click here! © 2018 Meteorologist Sharon Sullivan  Image Courtesy: A. Hunter Lyon, Colorado. DISCUSSION: Yesterday the islands of Niihau and Kauai contended with a frontal passage associated with an upper level low from the northwest. This frontal passage despite its ominous look for winter rains provided little to no moisture with just Kekaha registering precipitation, and Lihue showing light and heavy rain for a brief period early this morning on Kauai.
Winds are expected to increase to light trades and as high pressure moves into the state into the weekend, trade winds should be back and increasing. With relatively quiet weather with the upcoming weekend the northwest swell will increase to dangerous conditions. The conditions will affect north and west facing shores of the island chain. A High Surf Advisory has been issued to 6am Friday for these shores of Niihau, Kauai, Oahu, with the advisory for North shores of Maui and the Big Island. Meteorologists on the islands are urging surfers and swimmers to remain vigilant of high surf. The swell will pose wave heights of 20-24 feet along north facing shores with surf 14-18 feet along west facing shores. While not entirely attributed to the increasing swell, concerns mount due to the serious injury of professional surfer Dusty Payne on Monday, January 8th at Backdoor on the North Shore of Oahu, in addition to the death of another surfer earlier that morning at Rocky Point. For other captivating stories and discussions visit the Global Weather and Climate Center! © Meteorologist Jessica Olsen 
DISCUSSION: As of earlier in the day on Tuesday, there was a very impressive low- pressure system spinning over the northern parts of the Gulf of Alaska. It is worth noting that this majestic low-pressure system deepened fairly quickly as a result of a large region of very effective deep mass evacuation from the lower to the upper portions of the atmosphere. Hence, this very large low-pressure system was positioned in an ideal location for a prolific period of what was close was is typically considered to be rapid intensification (i.e., a minimum loss of 24 mb of central pressure within a 24-hour period). Nonetheless, despite coming in literally just short of bombogenesis or rapid intensification for an extra-tropical cyclone, it has still been impressive regardless to see such a large, majestic low pressure system make itself known across parts of the Northeast Pacific Ocean. It is also worth noting that this system will eventually indirectly deliver impacts to parts of Western North America in the coming days. Moving forward, be sure to stay tuned to our Twitter and Facebook account for further updates on this incredible Pacific low-pressure system.
To learn more about other high-impact weather events occurring across the Central and Eastern Pacific Ocean, be sure to click here! ©2017 Meteorologist Jordan Rabinowitz  Tropical Storm Jova (pronounced Ho-va) has formed in the eastern Pacific Ocean from what used to be Hurricane Franklin. Hurricane Franklin made landfall as a category 1 hurricane on the eastern coast of Mexico on the night of August 10, 2017. Soon after landfall, Franklin weakened to a remnant low due to the mountainous terrain of Mexico. The National Hurricane Center issued a forecast discussion before Franklin made landfall to state that once the remnants made it to the warm waters of the Pacific, it could reform (read the story here). The National Hurricane Center then issued a 90% chance that a new system could form from the low that used to be Hurricane Franklin. On August 11, 2017, Tropical Storm Jova was born. Currently, Jova is located south of the Baja Peninsula which could send high swells and rip currents to the coast. Even though the sea-surface temperatures are warm, Jova is experiencing high shear as noted by the thunderstorm activity being displaced to the southwest from the center. As the system moves westward, it will enter cooler sea-surface temperatures and gradually weaken. Jova is not expected to strengthen and is forecasted to be short-lived. Tropical Storm Jova will also not pose a threat to land, however, it may have indirect impacts such as high swells and rip currents.
To read more on the Pacific, click here! ⓒ 2017 Meteorologist Brandie Cantrell  As forecasters continue to monitor Tropical Storm Franklin in the western Caribbean Sea, models are forecasting Franklin to be revived as it enters the eastern Pacific. Tropical Storm Franklin is expected to make landfall as a category 1 hurricane late Wednesday night in eastern Mexico. The main threats from Franklin are hurricane-force winds, and torrential rainfall. Storm surge is also a concern along the eastern coastline where waves can be up to 6 feet above normal tide level. Once Franklin makes his second landfall in Mexico, the landscape is not conducive for further development. While Franklin will not be a tropical storm by the time he reaches the Pacific, however, the National Hurricane Center in Miami is giving it a 30% chance of a tropical system developing within the next 5 days. If a tropical system were to develop, it will move into less favorable conditions and is not expected to be long-lived. As this potential system moves northwestward, high surf and rip currents might impact the west coast of Mexico and the Baja Peninsula. South of this area is another potential development area as the National Hurricane Center is predicting a 30% chance of a tropical system developing within the next 5 days. Development isn’t forecasted until later in the week, however, conditions are favorable for gradual development. Once again, this system could bring high surf and rip currents to the coastline of Mexico.
Stay tuned for more updates in the eastern Pacific Ocean here! ⓒ 2017 Meteorologist Brandie Cantrell  DISCUSSION: Residents of the most vulnerable places in the United States never could imagine that tsunami warning systems brought by the Pacific Tsunami Warning Center would be on the chopping block by their own government. President Trump initially proposed budget cuts to tsunami warning systems back in May, going silently unnoticed by thousands in places like the state of Hawaii. The motion outlined details to shut down the Pacific Tsunami Warning Center in Oahu leaving the operations of tsunami warning solely on the Palmer, Alaska Warning Center, the only other tsunami warning center in the United States.
The island of Oahu in itself has a population of nearly 1 million with an estimated 300,000 living in Honolulu susceptible to the effects of a tsunami. Cuts to the tsunami warning system were proposed as a way to save taxpayer money while investing more in military and other areas of interest. On July 13th the Commerce, Justice, Science and Related Agencies Appropriations Bill was passed, including a suggested appropriation of $973 million for the National Weather Service (NWS), which would assist in saving the Pacific Tsunami Warning Center in Oahu in addition to nearly 60 jobs at stake. If elimination passed, no backup warning system would be in place, and funding for recently added network of deep-sea buoys – relaying real-time information to the warning center would be phased out. The House Appropriation Committee has added that the funding for the NWS is $37 million above the Trump administration’s initial suggestion. Those coastal residents can now sleep easier as the committee was determined to “maintain critical capabilities to provide weather forecasts and warnings.” Of note is the legislation contains $4.97 billions for the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, a solid $140 million above Trumps bid. For more information about weather in the news visit the Global Weather and Climate Center. © Meteorologist Jessica Olsen Reference: "The U.S. House of Representatives Committee On Appropriations Chairman Rodney Frelinghuysen." Committee Releases Fiscal Year 2018 Commerce, Justice, Science Appropriations Bill | Committee on Appropriations, U.S. House of Representatives. N.p., n.d. Web. 02 Aug. 2017. "The U.S. House of Representatives Committee On Appropriations Chairman Rodney Frelinghuysen." Committee Approves Fiscal Year 2018 Commerce, Justice, Science Appropriations Bill | Committee on Appropriations, U.S. House of Representatives. N.p., n.d. Web. 02 Aug. 2017.  Discussion: As Tropical Depression Hilary continues to degenerate this evening, Tropical Storm Irwin remains. However, a few days before dissipating, Hilary and Irwin were interacting in a rare phenomenon called the Fujiwhara effect. The Fujiwhara effect, named after Japanese meteorologist Sasuke Fujiwhara is a meteorological phenomenon where two cyclones within a distance of 600 to 900 miles from each other begin to orbit each other around a center point between them, like two pinwheels. The two cyclones, now attracted to each other will begin to move closer until they merge into one system. However, this is not always the case, as sometimes they will move away from each other, though typically one storm, typically the larger one will absorb part of the other (smaller) storm, causing one to intensify, and the other to weaken. . Ironically, it was predicted that Hilary would absorb Irwin, as it was stronger at the time, yet as I noted above, Hilary has degenerated, and Irwin is still active. Although, their trajectory was changed due to the orbiting effect of the Fujiwhara effect, the two storms don’t look like they will be merging completely as expected either, at least not yet. Even more unusual, these two storms were experiencing the Fujiwhara effect on the same day a pair of Western Pacific tropical cyclones, Typhoon Noru and Tropical Storm Kulap were experiencing the Fujiwhara effect as well. Hilary and Irwin experienced the latter, with them orbiting each other, but not merging. While these two storms may not have followed the prediction exactly, it is interesting to see this rare phenomenon happening in two places on the same day. To learn more about this and other high-impact weather events occurring across the Central and Eastern Pacific Ocean, be sure to click here!  Image Courtesy: GOES NOAA DISCUSSION: As cyclonic activity in the Eastern Pacific develops, it has become a concern for the Hawaiian Islands yet has brought some unconventional interest in the Californian coast. The concern regarding California and this activity is the Fujiwhara effect.
The National Hurricane Center in conjunction with the Central Pacific Hurricane Center are currently reporting Tropical Storm Irwin and Hurricane Hilary in the Eastern North Pacific and Tropical Depression Greg in the Central Pacific. In particular, Tropical Storm Irwin and Hurricane Hilary are storms to monitor as they could bring dangerous surf to locations in Southern California. The Fujiwhara Effect according to the American Meteorological Society (AMS) is, ”the tendency of two nearby tropical cyclones to rotate cyclonically about each other as a result of their circulations’ mutual advection.” However rare, the AMS notes that this frequently may occur in the northwestern Pacific basin, while increasingly rare in other oceanic basins. The Fujiwhara Effect is currently being seen with Kulap and Noru in the Western Pacific. Irwin and Hilary’s close proximity could showcase this rare possibility that Irwin may be absorbed into Hilary. If Hilary interacts with Irwin the hurricane is expected to weaken as it moves into cooler waters in the next few days. Current intensity of hurricane Hilary indicates a strong Category 2 with max winds around 90 knots with minimal changes in the short-term with overall weakening in the near future. Model guidance indicating that merging of these two storms could potentially happen by the end of the work week. The probability would bring large swaths of moisture into Southern California with an onslaught of rough conditions for the state including heavy rain, high surf and flash flooding. For more information on current storms visit the Global Weather and Climate Center! © Meteorologist Jessica Olsen  DISCUSSION: As we head deeper into the evening and overnight hours of this Mid-July Saturday (07/15/2017), Hurricane Fernanda continues to remain a very dangerous tropical cyclone as it continues to churn over the open waters of the Eastern Pacific Ocean. Having said that, it is not a threat to any land whatsoever as it remains a very powerful hurricane up to this point and will likely remain that way for at least the next 24 to 48 hours. Beyond that point, as discussed in the video briefing above, Hurricane Fernanda is expected to gradually weaken as the system moves into a much less favorable environment. To learn more about this current situation surrounding Hurricane Fernanda, watch the brief video briefing above for more details.
To learn more about this and other high-impact weather events occurring across the Central and Eastern Pacific Ocean, be sure to click here! ©2017 Meteorologist Jordan Rabinowitz  DISCUSSION: Over the past 24 to 48 hours, there was a very impressive example of tropical cyclone intensification on display across the open waters of the Eastern Pacific Ocean. This recent tropical cyclone intensification was characterized by Tropical Storm Fernanda intensifying to hurricane strength by Thursday evening. Furthermore, within the next 30 hours following that time, Hurricane Fernanda underwent a period of fairly rapid intensification as Hurricane Fernanda went from a Category 1 to a Category 4 hurricane. As it stands right now, Hurricane Fernanda is a Category 4 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 145 MPH with a minimum central pressure of 947 mb. Hence, this is a very intense and dangerous storm for any and all boats/ships which are trying to pass through that part of the Eastern Pacific Ocean. In looking at the following couple of days, the oceanic and atmospheric environments which Fernanda will be traversing will remain quite conducive for this tropical cyclone to either further intensify or maintain its current intensity. This will primarily be due to a combination of warm sea-surface temperatures and relatively low vertical wind shear which are ideal for periods of tropical cyclone intensification.
To learn more about other high-impact weather events occurring across the Central and/or Eastern Pacific Ocean, be sure to click here! ©2017 Meteorologist Jordan Rabinowitz  Image Courtesy: NOAA DISCUSSION: The Monterey Bay area is finally welcoming its own local professional baseball team after sights had been set for some time. The Monterey Amberjacks are based in Monterey, California’s and are a member of the Pecos League in in independent baseball league, with no affiliation with Major League Baseball (MLB) or Minor League Baseball. With the Amberjacks’ first home game set to begin Saturday, June 3rd, 6:30PM at Sollecito Park, the question for most will be what will the weather bring for the Amberjack’s as they play the Hollywood Stars. The middle of this week is set with cooler temperatures yet in the seasonal range as an upper level trough moves inland, bringing much of the unsettled weather out of the area as it propagates eastward, with moderate temperatures in the 60’s by the coast. Wednesday, we should expect to see increase sun in most areas as the boundary moves, with this a zonal flow is set to move into the area which will bring more summer like conditions, and the famous stratus clouds to the area. As we move later into the week with the zonal flow a weak high pressure system is set to move into the area which may bring temperatures up a few degrees. Overall Saturday should see a warm and dry day with plentiful sun. There will be stratus and fog and until the sun burns its off will linger into the area. Temperatures will be mild with the weak high pressure in the area, expect low to mid 60’s. With wind tapering into the week offshore will be the only concern for 10-20knots winds. A nice start to the Amberjack’s season with seasonable weather for their first home game! For more local forecasts visit the Global Weather and Climate Center for updates! © Meteorologist Jessica Olsen  Throughout the past 6 years, a massive undertaking has been going on removing 100,000 pounds of debris from the Pacific Ocean, and it has now been completed. Along the Kure Atoll State Wildlife Sanctuary, Midway Atoll National Wildlife Refuge, and the Battle of Midway National Memorial 12 shipping containers filled with material have been gathered and sent to Honolulu, Hawaii for processing. This material is now being used to produce electricity for the state.
Anthropogenic waste has posed a huge problem for marine life, including the endangered Leatherback Turtle and the Blue Whale. Most of this debris is consumed by birds and small fish, causing serious, if not fatal injuries. The reefs along the atolls have been suffering due to ocean acidification and the increase of debris covering them. The cleanup has been one of many efforts by the state and surrounding areas to clean up the ocean. "With the high rate of marine debris accumulation in the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands, removing debris is imperative to ensure the health of this valuable habitat and the species that call it home. We are happy to have the opportunity to work with partners on this important initiative," said Mark Manuel, NOAA Marine Debris Program Pacific Islands Regional Coordinator. Thanks to the work of the Unites States, Fish and Wildlife Service, State of Hawaii, and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, marine life can thrive once more. To learn more about other ongoing clean-up efforts occurring across the Central and Eastern Pacific Ocean, be sure to click here! ©2017 Meteorologist David Tedesco Eastern Pacific Low Impacting Parts of the Pacific Northwest! (credit: CIMSS and NWS Boise, Idaho)4/7/2017  DISCUSSION: Over the past several days, there has been a rather impressive extra-tropical low pressure system located just offshore from the Pacific Northwest portion of the United States. As you can clearly see in the image above, this storm has a large comma-head shape as well as a noticeably large warm front sector. This especially large warm front sector is consequently covering a significantly large region of the northwestern United States and is delivering significant precipitation to many people across the region. The impacts from this low pressure system are predominantly in the form of mountain snow and valley rain (as is typical of many different low pressure systems which emerge off of the Eastern Pacific Ocean) which is also delivering more snowfall to the regional ski resorts even as we get deeper into Spring. Nonetheless, this continues to be an impressive early Spring low pressure system that is impacting many people (at lower and higher elevations) across this region. This imagery was captured by the Suomi NPP VIIRS satellite Thursday afternoon. Courtesy of CIMSS.
To learn more about other high-impact weather events occurring across the Central and Eastern Pacific Ocean, be sure to click here! ©2017 Meteorologist Jordan Rabinowitz  Image Courtesy: NOAA DISCUSSION: After nearly two weeks of mild weather, California is expected to see more rain in the forecast, an indication that winter isn’t over quite yet. This week will prove to be tricky as two storms are set in a one – two punch pattern with precipitation set to begin Monday morning, lasting through Wednesday with a possible break for Thursday, being short lived as Friday packs its second punch to Californians. Monday is set to begin with rain in the forecast as an upper level low is apparent in heights as low at 850mb and extending deep to 300mb, this low is showing the classic tell-tale signs of a mid-latitude cyclone with northwest tilting trough, already evident on satellite. This late into winter, is not uncommon for California, however those in the state should be aware that this trough is expected to become stronger as it nears the coast which may bring problematic winds to the area gusting 20-30 knots, higher in some isolated areas. Rain may stifle as the low lifts to the Northeast predominately making Monday's event one to watch regarding winds, as many areas are still cleaning up from this winter’s devastating flooding, winds and landslides. As the trough remains in the area Tuesday will be of some concern as precipitation may become convective at times. Thursday may prove to be the driest day of the week however due to continued forecast limitations timing from the trough axis and upper level low remains a difficult track. The end of the week will become a difficult end as another upper level low attempts to bring in precipitation associated with a strong frontal boundary from the Northwest. While still several days till Friday this forecast will be one to watch as a possibility for converging upper level lows as they develop in the vicinity of each other, which may change the frontal passage. Stay tuned for more information on California and their everlasting precipitation this winter at the Global Weather and Climate Center! ~Meteorologist Jessica Olsen |
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