  DISCUSSION: The upcoming autumn (March to May) in Australia is expected to be warmer and drier than normal. The top figure above shows the probability that the maximum temperature over the March-May time period will exceed the median high temperature and indicates that above-normal maximum temperatures are anticipated across the entire continent except for northwest Australia. The figure immediately above indicates the likelihood that the median amount of rainfall will be exceeded over the autumn period and shows that south and central portion of the continent have a relatively small chance of receiving the normal amount of rain for this time of year. Given that the El Nino/Southern Oscillation cycle and other interannual climate drivers are neutral or inactive at this time, this outlook is primarily based on the expectation of above-normal atmospheric pressure which will act to block any extra-tropical low pressure systems approaching from the west or south that would otherwise bring cooler and/or rainier weather. One important implication of this outlook is that there may be a heightened risk of brushfires over much of Australia this upcoming fall.
To learn more about other high-impact weather events occurring across Australia and the South Pacific, be sure to click here! ©2017 Meteorologist Dr. Ken Leppert II
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Quite A Wet Week Ahead For Parts of Queensland and New South Wales! (credit: Higgins Storm Chasing)2/24/2017  DISCUSSION: After many months of hot, humid weather with relatively low amounts of regional rainfall across many parts of central and eastern Australia, relief finally appears to be well on the way. As we look towards the eastern half of the nation over the course of the next few days, a fairly strong low pressure system is expected to develop in the vicinity of coastal sections of eastern Australia. As discusses in more detail in the article below (courtesy of the Higgins Storm Chasing team), this upcoming storm system will absolutely bring much-needed rainfall to several parts of central and eastern Australia which are in quite severe stages of drought at the present time. Therefore, this upcoming and likely prolonged rainfall event will definitely bring critical relief to both general soil moisture issues as well as regional fauna which are in varying degrees of danger to the persistently drier conditions which have remained in place during recent days and weeks. To learn more about this upcoming wet weather aimed at central/eastern Australia, feel free to click here!
To learn more about other high-impact weather events occurring across Australia and the South Pacific, be sure to click here! ©2017 Meteorologist Jordan Rabinowitz Developing Low Pressure System Threatens Northern Queensland! (credit: Higgins Storm Chasing)2/15/2017  DISCUSSION: As a low pressure continues to strengthen near the coast of northeastern Australia, there will be an increased convective threat over the next 24 to 48 hours across portions of northeastern and eastern Queensland, Australia. Attached below in quotations is the more detailed discussion released earlier today by the Higgins Storm Chasing team. It is important to note that the colored circles noted in the text above refer to the forecast graphic attached above (courtesy of the Higgins Storm Chasing team).
"A low pressure system is currently developing in the Southern Gulf and likely to produce heavy rain areas over the Gulf Coast today (circles blue). Widespread moderate to high instability is likely over Northern Queensland producing showers and thunderstorms, some of which could become severe (circled in red), while weak instability is expected to develop over Southern and Central Inland districts and this may help produce some isolated thunderstorms (circled in yellow)." It is important to acknowledge that the areas highlighted in red and yellow are the main areas in which there is the largest threat for strong thunderstorms capable of producing strong winds, frequent lighting, hail, and heavy rainfall. To learn more about other high-impact weather events across Australia and the South Pacific, be sure to click here! ©2017 Meteorologist Jordan Rabinowitz  DISCUSSION: As a particularly strong high pressure system continues to dominate across many parts of central and eastern Australia, very serious fire weather conditions will remain in the place at least for the duration of this weekend. More specifically, this strong high pressure system is facilitating widespread hot and dry conditions across a large span of Australia. As a result of this hot and dry weather pattern in control across eastern and central parts of Australia, there is a legitimate threat for small campsite fires or light compost burning to ignite much larger fires even from the embers of localized fires landing on very dry grasses and so forth. Therefore, if you are living across central and/or eastern Australia, be sure to maintain a strong awareness of your surroundings and avoid use matches unnecessarily or burning anything outside of your home since it will have the potential to lead to much more serious and widespread fire weather issues. It is worth noting that despite the seriousness of this fire weather threat, there are some signs of breaks in the persistent high pressure system which will allow for some breaks in these hazardous hot and dry conditions!
To learn more about other high-impact weather events from across Australia and the South Pacific, be sure to click here! ©2017 Meteorologist Jordan Rabinowitz Oppressive Heat and Humidity Raging Across Eastern Australia! (credit: Higgins Storm Chasing)2/3/2017  DISCUSSION: As the sun continues to rise over the "Land Down Under," there will be an increasing threat for strong (or even possibly severe) thunderstorms across several areas in eastern/southeastern Australia. As shown in the graphic above (courtesy of the Higgins Storm Chasing team), there are now relatively large SWEAT Index values unfolding across several densely populated cities in eastern to southeastern Australia. As a consequence of these high SWEAT Index values coupled with the particularly hot surface temperatures and high levels of humidity, there will continue to be a threat for strong to severe thunderstorms across the areas highly in red and pink in graphic above. It is important to bear in mind that "air mass" type thunderstorms which often erupt under the type of environmental conditions are typically unpredictable in nature and timing. Therefore, if you can hear thunder in the distance, always be sure to respect the power of Mother Nature and seek shelter under the thunderstorm threat has abated. For those of you reading this that currently are in or know somebody who is currently situated in (or near) cities including (but not limited to) Sydney, New Castle, Central Coast, Gosford, etc. tell them to keep their eyes to the skies today.
To learn more about other high-impact weather events occurring across Australia and the South Pacific, be sure to click here! @2017 Meteorologist Jordan Rabinowitz  DISCUSSION: Per the earlier discussion from NIWA Meteorologist Ben Noll, there is now a heightened sense of concern based on a substantial amount of data pointing to the presence of significant drought conditions across parts of central to northern New Zealand. The primary indication came from farmers spread across the island nation who reported serious issues with their crop output over the past few months which has major implications for the local economic balance of the country and surrounding countries as well. Hence, this newest drought assessment has the potential to deliver serious consequences on much of the general populous spread across the entire country of New Zealand.
Attached below is a discussion (courtesy of NIWA Meteorologist Ben Noll) which more elaborately dives into the details of the current situation over in New Zealand: "Drought conditions in Northland and the northern Auckland region have officially been classified as a medium-scale adverse event. "This is recognition of the extreme dry conditions farmers and growers are facing and triggers additional Government support," said Primary Industries Minister Nathan Guy on Friday. The East Coast of the North Island is also acknowledged as being drier than normal and is being monitored for drought development -- Gisborne is coming off its driest January on record and Napier 3rd driest. Our 3-month climate outlook indicates that below normal rainfall (45% chance) is the most likely outcome for the dry regions of the north and east of the North Island. There is just a very small chance (20%) for above normal rainfall." To learn more about other high-impact weather events occurring across Australia and the South Pacific, be sure to click here! @2017 Meteorologist Jordan Rabinowitz |
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