DISCUSSION: During the course of the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season thus far, there has been predominantly little to no tropical cyclone activity of any kind aside from much earlier this year. There are a number of different possible reasons and explanations for why any part of a given Atlantic or East Pacific hurricane season may end up being relatively quiet for a given time-frame. However, one of the key factors which will or will not facilitate convective updrafts within deep convective storm clusters over the open ocean to develop is vertical wind shear.
As can be seen in the graphical suite which is attached above (courtesy of Dr. Philip Klotzbach from Colorado State University), there is a strong correlation between the overall basin-wide coverage and magnitude of vertical wind shear and the potential for tropical cyclone genesis and development thereof. More specifically, in general, the stronger the vertical wind shear is at a given time, the lesser the potential for any tropical cyclone development in the majority of cases. The reason for this is that when there is stronger vertical wind shear present, this does not allow for deeper thunderstorms clusters to become increasingly better organized with time. Thus, if deep convective storm clusters cannot have the opportunity to become more organized, this inhibits any and all tropical cyclone development which may attempt to unfold over some given period of time. Therefore, if the wind shear does let up a bit as is in the realm of possibility for later this month (i.e., August 2018), there is a possibility for oceanic and atmospheric conditions to become a bit more favorable for potential tropical cyclone development later this year here in 2018.
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© 2018 Meteorologist Jordan Rabinowitz