DISCUSSION: Over the course of the next couple of days, there currently remains to be a very high likelihood of tropical cyclone development across part of the western Caribbean Sea. This is chiefly due to the persistent presence of an area of very disturbed weather positioned across the western Caribbean Sea in association with a fairly rapidly strengthening tropical wave which is currently on a track headed towards the Yucatan Peninsula at the present time. At this weak area of low pressure gradually tracks towards the Yucatan Peninsula, some minor vertical wind shear may mitigate this weak tropical low-pressure system's ability to strengthen over the next 24 to 30 hours before making its first likely landfall in the far eastern part of the Yucatan Peninsula. After making its first landfall, it will most likely emerge over the far eastern portion of the Bay of Campeche. It is at that point when it is currently projected to attain its peak intensity before making its second likely landfall in far eastern Mexico as a more potent tropical cyclone.
As shown in the brief satellite imagery clip shown above (courtesy of the National Weather Service Ocean Prediction Center, this tropical low-pressure system is in its earliest stages of development at the present time. It is for the reasons stated above that it will become increasingly important to stay tuned to our team at the Global Weather and Climate Center as well as at the website of the National Hurricane Center for more updates on this evolving situation!
To learn more about other high-impact weather events occurring across the Atlantic Ocean and the Caribbean Sea, be sure to click here!
©2017 Meteorologist Jordan Rabinowitz