Increasing Concerns for Tropical Low 90L (credit: Levi Cowan and Tropical Tidbits)

Combining a low-level disturbance w/ high background vorticity, moisture, and a small-scale upper PV anomaly is a good way to get TC genesis pic.twitter.com/RMfFXjJ8dx

— Levi Cowan (@TropicalTidbits) October 3, 2017

DISCUSSION: As a broad area of tropical low pressure continues to develop over the next 24 to 48 hours, there will continue to be an increasing threat for development of this system.  The primary reason for the increasing concerns associated with this weak broad area of low pressure is due to the fact that this area of low pressure will be moving into a region with very high oceanic sea-surface temperatures as well as relatively low low/mid-level environmental wind shear.  The combination of these factors may very well allow the system to gradually intensify over the next couple of days before making its way towards the central Gulf Coast in all likelihood.  More specifically, as put by Levi Cowan, there are particular intensification concerns due to there being a situation defined by "combining a low-level disturbance w/ high background vorticity, moisture, and a small-scale upper potential vorticity anomaly is a good way to get TC genesis."

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©2017 Meteorologist Jordan Rabinowitz