Tropical Storm Ophelia Taking Aim At Western Europe (credit: NWS National Hurricane Center)10/10/2017  DISCUSSION: As of late tonight (10/17/2017), Tropical Storm Ophelia continues to remain at tropical storm status. Despite time now having taken us well into the month of October, we continue to watch tropical Atlantic basin remain active. It goes without saying that this time of year is past the climatological peak for tropical cyclone activity; though this far from unusual nonetheless since some of the more intense tropical cyclones on record have occurred during the months of October and November around the world. In the case of Tropical Storm Ophelia, it appears to likely be a harmless system (i.e., in terms of possible land-based impacts). However, within the next couple of days after gradually drifting to the south, there is high degree of consensus that Ophelia will be picked up by an upper level trough. As a result, what is expected to be Tropical Storm Ophelia (by that point in time) will more quickly move off in a predominantly northeasterly direction taking Ophelia towards western Europe. Hence, despite being a system on a weakening trend at that point in time, it will likely still bring heavy rainfall and strong, gusty winds to parts of western Europe (and in particular across the British Isles).
To learn more about other high-impact weather events across the Atlantic Ocean and the Caribbean Sea, be sure to click here! ©2017 Meteorologist Jordan Rabinowitz
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DISCUSSION: As a broad area of tropical low pressure continues to develop over the next 24 to 48 hours, there will continue to be an increasing threat for development of this system. The primary reason for the increasing concerns associated with this weak broad area of low pressure is due to the fact that this area of low pressure will be moving into a region with very high oceanic sea-surface temperatures as well as relatively low low/mid-level environmental wind shear. The combination of these factors may very well allow the system to gradually intensify over the next couple of days before making its way towards the central Gulf Coast in all likelihood. More specifically, as put by Levi Cowan, there are particular intensification concerns due to there being a situation defined by "combining a low-level disturbance w/ high background vorticity, moisture, and a small-scale upper potential vorticity anomaly is a good way to get TC genesis."
To learn more about other high-impact weather events across the Atlantic Ocean and the Caribbean Sea, be sure to click here! ©2017 Meteorologist Jordan Rabinowitz |
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