DISCUSSION: As of earlier this morning, Tropical Depression Five became sufficiently organized and intense to be named the 5th Tropical Storm of the 2016 Tropical Atlantic Hurricane Season, namely, Tropical Storm Earl. Tropical Storm Earl formed as a result of the aforementioned Tropical Depression Five continuing to move over an area characterized by above-normal sea surface temperatures as well as weak deep-layer wind shear. Thus, this was a particularly favorable region for tropical cyclone development. However, based on the fact that Tropical Storm Earl will be moving into a somewhat less favorable region just to the east of the Yucatán Peninsula (located in Eastern Mexico) over the next 24 to 48 hours, further intensification will be slowed or stopped fairly soon.
Having said that, the main threat for the Eastern and Central Yucatan Peninsula will likely be gusty winds, heavy rainfall, and intense flooding, as well as mudslides and/or landslides. Upon moving through northern sections of the Yucatán Peninsula, Tropical Storm Earl will likely reemerge briefly over the Bay of Campeche before moving into central and northern mainland Mexico where it will likely bring many of the same threats as those seen in the Yucatán Peninsula over the next couple of days.
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©2017 Meteorologist Jordan Rabinowitz