 A Great White Shark was spotted off the coast of Long Island near the Long Island Sound on May 20.
The shark, known as Cabot by marine data tracking company Ocearch, is alarming, but not in the worrisome manner that the creatures are often associated with. The shark alarmed researchers at the group with overwhelming positivity since Cabot’s track near the Long Island coast may be indication of waters full of marine life due to a possibly cleaner Sound. It was back in 2010 that efforts to clean up both the East River and the Long Island Sound began as city officials cut nitrogen emissions from four wastewater treatment plants in the Upper East River. At the time, the New York City Department of Environmental Protection (DEP) estimated the measure would reduce emissions at the plants by 52 percent. Nitrogen levels in bodies of water with living organisms must remain at critical levels to keep biological life from dying off. Excess nitrogen can inhibit algae growth, which is detrimental to fish and other maritime creatures. A prosperous water source will in turn attract larger predators, such as Cabot, who may be in search of a meal. While 2010 brought clean-up efforts by city officials, it was as far back as 1997 that local officials were banding together to clean up the Sound. Tom Suozzi, then the Mayor of Glen Cove, New York, and Dannel Malloy, Mayor of Stamford, Connecticut, created “Orchestrating Both Coasts for a Better Sound” in an effort to clean the Sound of frequent sewage spills and nitrogen. Success came at the tune of a 58.5 percent reduction of nitrogen levels in the Sound. Come 2017, the same two public officials, now U.S. Representative and Connecticut Governor, respectively, would pledge to continue efforts to preserve the Long Island Sound’s natural beauty. Luckily for Great Whites, and Sharks, it looks like the Sound is thriving and offering plenty of meals to keep the food chain going! For more on ocean related topics, click here! ©2019 Weather Forecaster Jacob Dolinger
0 Comments
How will one episode of atmospheric bombogenesis will influence the next storm behind it?11/14/2018 
DISCUSSION: There is an old phrase that the atmosphere is completely interconnected and everything that forms and evolves will ultimately affect everything else at some point in time. This phrase completely applies to situation which will be evolving across coastal and semi-coastal parts of the Northeastern United States over the next 48 to 72 hours or so. There is a currently a system developing in the Southeastern United States which will soon be moving towards the East Coast of the United States and as this occurs, there will quickly be a transition to secondary low-pressure system development just offshore.
As this secondary development occurs and then blossoms, a high-pressure system will begin to build in from southeastern Canada which will help the filter in much colder air into a good portion of the Northeast United States. This situation as defined by much colder air “setting up shop” over the Northeastern United States will set the stage for the next winter weather event which will happen by Thursday night and Friday of this week. The reason for why the “high on the heels of the low” is such an important factor in this equation because the southeastern Canadian high-pressure system has a pivotal role by acting to provide the cold air which is critical to sustain snow sleet and/or freezing rain during a given winter weather event. Thus, the high-pressure system coming in behind the exiting massive low-pressure system as captured in the brief numerical model simulation attached above (courtesy of Weather Channel Research Meteorologist Stu Ostro) will act as a “stepping stone” to the next weather event which will far greater impacts as we get later into this week. This situation is a classic example for why the atmosphere is truly a dynamically-fluid and a very much interconnected web of smaller-scale to larger-scale interactions which collectively can have massive global impacts when the right factors come together in the right combination and at the right time. Thus, even as one system departs a region, do not ever let your guard down since the next system may not be all that far behind the first one. To learn more about other high-impact weather events occurring across the Atlantic Ocean and the Caribbean Sea, be sure to click here! © 2018 Meteorologist Jordan Rabinowitz A Satellite Analysis Recap of Hurricane Florence's Final Days (Imagery credit: GOES-16 Rapid Scan)10/3/2018 
DISCUSSION: There is no question that during the days leading up to the landfall of Hurricane Florence along the East Coast of the United States, there was no shortage of questions regarding what exact track the storm was most likely to take as well as questions regarding how intense the storm was most likely to be around the time of landfall. To help answer these questions with passing time, many meteorologists will typically assess how various model forecast systems are projecting a given tropical cyclone to behave over some period and will then compare this projection to how a storm is evolving in real-time. In this way, a meteorologist will be able to more effectively make a point of comparison regarding how closely a given tropical cyclone is following an intensity and/or track forecast.
Aside from those questions noted above, which were also all well addressed for the most part in the days leading up to landfall since the center-point of the 5-day forecast was just under 30 miles from the actual point of landfall on that Friday morning just a few weeks ago. In shifting away from that point, something interesting worth noting on was how Hurricane Florence was quite resilient in the days leading up to landfall. What is meant by the reference to Hurricane Florence being “resilient” in the days preceding the landfall of this tropical cyclone is the fact that in the days leading up to landfall, hurricane Florence experience substantial wind shear from the west and southwest at times. Thus, this storm’s ability to maintain a symmetric and balanced inner convective core structure was challenged quite a bit for quite a prolonged period during the 48 to 72-hour period prior to landfall. Although this was not expected by the majority of model forecast scenarios, this was still very much welcomed news for people both along and near coastal and semi-coastal regions along the Carolina coastline. Even despite the ultimate combination of storm surge and heavy rainfall-based flooding which went on to occur with time. This is because the inability for Hurricane Florence to maintain a symmetric inner core prevented the storm from re-intensifying any further during the 48 hours prior to landfall despite several attempts for the storm to re-develop deep convection around its circulation center. Moreover, such deep convective outbursts continued to occur even in the final hours leading up to landfall as Florence slowly skirted along the North Carolina coastline. This is also reflected in the 48-hour infrared satellite imagery loop which is attached within the Tweet linked above (courtesy of the NWS Weather Prediction Center office as well as the GOES-16 Rapid Scan Satellite Imagery). Thus, even when Hurricane Florence was exposed to far less than ideal conditions, this tropical cyclone continued to remain quite persistent in its quest to remain a dangerous and life-threatening tropical cyclone as it ultimately ended up being. To learn more about other high-impact and interesting weather events occurring across the Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea, be sure to click here! © 2018 Meteorologist Jordan Rabinowitz What is the Relevance of the "Main Development Region" to Hurricane Activity? (credit: NOAA)9/3/2018  DISCUSSION: As a follow-up to the previous article regarding the importance of the Loop Current on Tropical Atlantic hurricane activity and corresponding intensity potential, it makes sense to also discuss the importance of the region of the Tropical Atlantic basin which is designated at the "Main Development Region." The "Main Development Region" (MDR) is the region of the Tropical Atlantic Ocean basin which extends from approximately just offshore from the west coast of Africa and westward towards the western-most sections of the Caribbean Sea. This vast amount of tropical ocean is a region which is often more closely monitored for potential tropical system development during the course of a given Atlantic hurricane season. It is worth noting that despite not being discussed here, there also is a particularly favorable MDR for the Tropical Eastern Pacific Ocean basin as well. However, for the purposes of this discussion, the focus will remain on the MDR across the Tropical Atlantic basin.
In re-focusing into our topic of interest being the Tropical Atlantic basin's MDR, it is important to establish the fact that during any given year, the Tropical Atlantic's MDR often will behave slightly different depending upon the exact oceanic and atmospheric conditions which are in place throughout the course of a given Tropical Atlantic hurricane season. Hence, no one season is ever perfectly identical to another regardless of how similar the evolution of storm formation and given storm intensity may be from one season to another. Thus, when trying to say that one year is reminding oneself of another year based on some given factor, you are more than likely not correct since there are many unique surface, low-level, mid-level, and upper-level atmospheric as well as corresponding oceanic factors which make every single global tropical cyclone season different from the next. A graphic which perfectly illustrates this point is the one which is attached above (courtesy of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Climate Prediction Center office). This graphic attached above shows how and why during the course of the current 2018 Tropical Atlantic hurricane season there has been relatively to no tropical activity for a good portion of what is considered to be the more active parts of a typical year. This lack of tropical storm activity has been largely due to the persistent presence of stronger vertical wind shear as well as a persistent presence of pronounced Saharan Dust across a substantial percentage of the Tropical Atlantic's "Main Development Region" during the large majority of the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season up to this point. Thus, as shown in the above graphic, the combination of unfavorable wind patterns along with the cooler sea-surface temperatures and the persistent Saharan Dust plume progression has predominantly led to a mostly quiet Tropical Atlantic basin here in 2018 for the most part. It is imperative to acknowledge the fact that this could change soon as large-scale conditions are anticipated to improve somewhat in the days and weeks ahead here in September and into early October. So, as always, be sure to stay tuned to our global team at the Global Weather and Climate Center for the very latest! To learn more about this topic and this topic in reference to the 2018 Tropical Atlantic hurricane season, feel free to click here. To learn more about other important weather-related stories from across the Atlantic Ocean and the Caribbean Sea, be sure to click here! © 2018 Meteorologist Jordan Rabinowitz  DISCUSSION: During the course of a given Tropical Atlantic hurricane season, there are a number of different factors (i.e., both ocean-based and atmosphere-based) which meteorologists will closely monitor. This is due to the fact that with even slight changes in the state of many of these different environmental conditions, there can often be quite substantial changes in the propensity for tropical cyclones to form and/or intensity while moving across different parts of the Tropical Atlantic as just one oceanic basin which will be used as a singular example here. As shown in the graphic attached above (courtesy of the University Center for Atmospheric and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration), you can see a specific oceanic current being depicted here. This ocean current which is known as the Loop Current is effectively a northward extension of the Caribbean Current and the current which later transitions into what are known as the Straits of Florida and eventually becoming the Gulf Stream.
However, across the central and eastern portions of the Gulf of Mexico, the Loop Current will often have one or more "Loop eddies" break away from the main Loop Current just to the east. "Loop eddies" refer to much smaller rotating/pivoting ocean sub-current which allow more isolated areas of warmer upper-ocean water to meander a relatively short distance away from the main Loop Current which will most often gradually progress to the east with time. Due to this factor, when developing tropical storms, intensifying hurricanes, or even mature hurricanes pass over either the Loop Current and/or "Loop eddies", they are quite often given an intensity boost or size boost. This is a result of a given tropical cyclone benefiting from the substantially warmer sea-surface temperatures helping to provide additional fuel for a blossoming tropical storm. Hence, whenever there is a tropical cyclone threat during the late Summer to early Fall time-frame in the vicinity of the Gulf of Mexico, there are often heightened concerns when it comes to nearby tropical storms with the looming presence of the Loop Current. To learn more about this interesting tropical subject matter courtesy of the National Centers for Coastal Ocean Science, feel free to click here! To learn more about other high-impact weather stories and/or topics from across the Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea, be sure to click here! © 2018 Meteorologist Jordan Rabinowitz At the start of every hurricane season, the big question everyone asks is “How bad will this season be?” To prepare for the upcoming season, outlooks are released. Originally, the National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida, predicted for an average to an above-average season.  As we are approaching the peak of the Atlantic Hurricane Season (mid/late September), forecasters and hurricane specialists are making an update to their forecast. Based on the first two months of the season, some key indicators have made them update their forecast and lean towards the possibility of an average to below-average season. In total, there are three reasons that have made forecasters and specialists update and, therefore, lower the outlook. Two of the three indicators are an increase in both wind shear and the Saharan Air Layer in the Main Development Region (MDR). The MDR is the part of the Atlantic Ocean where hurricanes are most likely to form and is positioned between Africa and the Caribbean Sea. The third reason is the most important: the presence of El Niño in the Central Pacific Ocean. The peak of the Atlantic Hurricane Season occurs in mid/late September but begins to ramp up in August. The first indication of a below-average Atlantic Hurricane Season is the increase of wind shear over the MDR. According to the National Weather Service, wind shear is the rate at which wind velocity changes from point to point in a given vertical direction. When there is wind shear present in the MDR, the winds go against the winds associated with the tropical system. By the winds going in the opposite direction of the tropical system’s winds, the system gets torn apart and hinders any further tropical development. The wind shear forecast for August to October in the MDR illustrates winds greater than 20 knots: about 2-4 standard deviations above average. The second indication in the MDR is the Saharan Air Layer. The Saharan Air Layer is simply hot, dry air that originates from the Sahara Desert in Africa. This hot, dry air leads to dust exiting the Sahara Desert, and entering the MDR. A “layer” is then created in the atmosphere, making it very difficult for tropical development. The Saharan Air Layer removes the moist air and convective processes that are crucial to tropical development. According to Michael Lowry, the Saharan dust was at a record high across the MDR for June and July. At one point at the end of June, the dust made its way all the way across the Atlantic and was noticed in Houston, Texas. If this continues to persist through August and into September, it will be extremely difficult for tropical development to unfold with any real degree of consistency. The last and most notable indication for a quieter Atlantic Hurricane Season is El Niño in the Central Pacific Ocean. El Niño is the warming of the Central to Eastern Pacific Ocean to greater than or equal to at least 0.5 degrees Celsius above average. Historically, when El Niño is present in the Central Pacific Ocean, it affects the Atlantic Hurricane Season in a negative way. El Niño increases vertical wind shear and trade winds over the Atlantic Ocean and creates a more stable environment. In addition, El Niño causes sinking air in the Atlantic Ocean, which leads to cooler sea surface temperatures.  In the image above, there is a rectangle highlighting the MDR, which is illustrating cooler than normal sea surface temperatures. Due to El Niño’s effect on the cooling of the Atlantic Ocean, it results in less tropical development, as tropical systems depend on warmer waters to generate the deep convection needed for development. By the cooling of the MDR, it is more difficult for the systems to fully develop.
Due to the increased wind shear, the Saharan Air Layer, and El Niño all being present, forecasters and specialists have begun to update their outlook for the Atlantic Hurricane Season. If these conditions do persist into the peak of the season, we could see a quieter Atlantic Hurricane Season. Credit: NOAA, Twitter.com @MichaelRLowry To learn more about this and other tropical cyclone-based weather events, be sure to click www.globalweatherclimatecenter.com/tropical-cyclones! ©2018 Weather Forecaster Andrew Lunavictoria 
DISCUSSION: During the course of the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season thus far, there has been predominantly little to no tropical cyclone activity of any kind aside from much earlier this year. There are a number of different possible reasons and explanations for why any part of a given Atlantic or East Pacific hurricane season may end up being relatively quiet for a given time-frame. However, one of the key factors which will or will not facilitate convective updrafts within deep convective storm clusters over the open ocean to develop is vertical wind shear.
As can be seen in the graphical suite which is attached above (courtesy of Dr. Philip Klotzbach from Colorado State University), there is a strong correlation between the overall basin-wide coverage and magnitude of vertical wind shear and the potential for tropical cyclone genesis and development thereof. More specifically, in general, the stronger the vertical wind shear is at a given time, the lesser the potential for any tropical cyclone development in the majority of cases. The reason for this is that when there is stronger vertical wind shear present, this does not allow for deeper thunderstorms clusters to become increasingly better organized with time. Thus, if deep convective storm clusters cannot have the opportunity to become more organized, this inhibits any and all tropical cyclone development which may attempt to unfold over some given period of time. Therefore, if the wind shear does let up a bit as is in the realm of possibility for later this month (i.e., August 2018), there is a possibility for oceanic and atmospheric conditions to become a bit more favorable for potential tropical cyclone development later this year here in 2018. To learn more about other important weather stories and related issues occurring across the Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea, be sure to click here! © 2018 Meteorologist Jordan Rabinowitz 
DISCUSSION: As of earlier this morning, Tropical Depression Three was upgraded to third named storm of the 2018 Tropical Atlantic hurricane season by way of Tropical Storm Chris. This is an impressive feat for the Tropical Atlantic basin up to this point for several reasons. First off, the overall sea-surface temperature regime across a good portion of the critical main development region for the Tropical Atlantic basin have been notably below-average from climatological average sea-surface temperatures both before and from the start of the 2018 Tropical Atlantic hurricane season which officially began back on 1 June 2018, making the majority of the Tropical Atlantic predominantly unfavorable for tropical development for the most part.
In addition, several potent rounds of Saharan dust ejecting from the coast of Western Africa and progressing across the Tropical Atlantic over the past few weeks has also led to a large-scale suppression in potential tropical cyclone development across a good portion of the Tropical Atlantic basin. This is due to the Saharan Air Layer (as it is scientifically referred to) containing stronger vertical wind shear and dry-air intrusions which cut down on the ability of deeper convection to organize in and around the center of developing tropical cyclone vortices. Hence, several factors have combined for a mostly unfavorable tropical cyclone development scenario for the most part. Nonetheless, we do now have Tropical Storm Chris just off the East Coast of the United States and there is a good chance that Tropical Storm Chris may soon end up becoming Hurricane Chris if a few more things come together with this latest tropical cyclone here in July 2018. The last part about Tropical Storm Chris which is also impressive is the fact that the average date for the formation of the third named storm in Tropical Atlantic happens to be August 13th. Thus, one could certainly make the argument that this 2018 Tropical Atlantic hurricane season is off to a somewhat rolling start despite conditions across much of the basin being much less than ideal. This just goes to prove the reality that even when under less than ideal circumstances, tropical storms can still form and perform over the course of their lifetime. To learn more about other interesting tropical cyclone-related stories from around the world, be sure to click here! © 2018 Meteorologist Jordan Rabinowitz   DISCUSSION: A bright blue sky is typically associated with clear sunshine and an overall calm weather day. But why is it at times that, in the tropics, this familiar bright blue backdrop becomes more milky white and opaque? The culprit is a feature known as the Saharan Air Layer (SAL): a warm, relatively dry, and dusty air mass that extends for several hundred miles across and resides 1-3 miles above the surface. An enormous amount of dust particles are transported westward with the tropical trade winds from the African Sahara to much of the Caribbean and Florida during the late spring and early summer months. SAL plays a role in hampering the development of convection and thunderstorms over much of the tropical belt and is notorious for hindering the organization of tropical storms and hurricanes. However, the true phenomenon with SAL lies in the theoretical understanding of how it affects the atmosphere’s aerosol optical depth (AOD).
To not be too verbose, the AOD is just a measurement of the ratio of light received versus light transmitted through a medium (e.g., SAL dust particles) and is crucial to understanding how light is scattered in the atmosphere. AOD ranges from 0 to 1, although the value hardly exceeds 0.3 without the presence of SAL or other foreign particulates. In SAL events, previous research has shown that the presence of SAL in the atmosphere tends to affect the amount of sunlight that is absorbed by the lower atmosphere, and the AOD during these SAL intrusions increases considerably. Furthermore, the Angström exponent is another useful quantity that relates the AOD of particles between two wavelengths (observed and reference). In principle, the Angström exponent has an inverse relationship with the particles in the aerosol such that small particles have a high Angström exponent and vice versa. Similarly, a high Angström exponent is correlated to a higher optical depth. Hence, high values for AOD and the Angström exponent signify the presence of foreign particles in the atmosphere. The picture at the top of this article was taken en route from San Juan, PR to Fort Lauderdale, FL earlier this month as SAL intrusion occurred over the western Atlantic Ocean waters surrounding the Bahamas. From above, hazy areas appear closer to the surface beneath the fair weather cumulus clouds. Closer to Florida and the Bahamas, the concentration of SAL is considerably less compared to the islands in the eastern Caribbean Sea. Still, the appearance of SAL at least once or twice every summer brings about a shift from the typical weather patterns. To learn more about other high-impact weather and weather-related events occurring across the Atlantic Ocean and the Caribbean Sea, be sure to click here! © 2018 Meteorologist Brian Matilla Viewing Stunning Convection over The Long-Axis of Cuba. (credit: NOAA Satellites -> Twitter)4/29/2018 
DISCUSSION: During the latter part of last week, the Goes-East satellite imager was able to capture a fairly convective event unfold over the long-axis of the island nation of Cuba. As shown in the video Tweet (which is attached above), a simple atmospheric boundary which is most commonly referred to as a "sea breeze" settled in over the approximate center of the longer axis of the island nation of Cuba. As a result of this sea breeze "setting up shop" over the longer-axis of Cuba, this facilitated particularly strong localized converging air streams. As this localized convergence persisted for several hours back on April 25th, this allowed convective cells to develop along this lengthy sea breeze front which was "camped out" across much of Cuba during a good portion of the afternoon and early evening hours back during last Wednesday.
As you will note, the convection blossomed fairly quickly early on in this particular visible satellite imagery loop. This can chiefly be attributed to the fact that in the warmer, tropical climate found across Cuba during much of the year, there is a much greater propensity for convection to fire up in relatively short amounts of time as was found with this recent case study. It is very impressive nonetheless due to the fact that it is always neat to observe convection fire up so quickly along a perfect sea breeze oriented west-northwest to east-southeast across the island nation of Cuba. It just goes to show the value of GOES-East visible satellite imagery with anticipating developing convective storms before they reach maximum intensity. To learn more about other high-impact weather events occurring across the Atlantic Ocean and the Caribbean Sea, be sure to click here! © 2018 Meteorologist Jordan Rabinowitz Appreciating the Complexity Winter-time Coastal Storm Forecasting (credit: NOAA GOES-16 Satellite)3/8/2018 
DISCUSSION: During the course of a given Winter season, there is always a decent chance for snowstorms to occur depending on how different oceanic and atmospheric parameters do or do not come together. When it comes to predicting how a given Nor'easter may or may not unfold during a given period of time, it is important to consider a few specific factors. First off, one of the first aspects to consider when anticipating the likelihood of a given Nor'easter developing is whether there happens to be a sufficient horizontal temperature gradient between coastal as well as semi-inland sections of the Northeast and the far western Atlantic Ocean. This horizontal temperature gradient is what provides the critical baroclinic zone (i.e., a horizontal zone of rapid temperature change at the surface which effectively creates a horizontally-oriented Winter-time atmospheric instability. It is typically acknowledged as a native Winter-time atmospheric instability based on the fact that you only ever find a sufficiently strong horizontal temperature gradient during the Winter since this is when the ocean is still relative warm (due to a greater net heat capacity) and the land is much colder due to periodic bursts of colder (sometimes Arctic) air which descend out of southern and southeastern Canada.
The other major factor which is directly tied to anticipating the likelihood of there being sufficient upper-level support which has to do with the strength of upstream atmospheric dynamics (namely the amplitude of a given trough). A trough is effectively a "bowl" of much colder air in the upper levels of the atmosphere which will dive down into the central and/or eastern United States during more favorable Nor'easter set-up scenarios. As a result, depending on the given amplitude of the incoming trough, this often dictates the amount of corresponding energy associated with a upper-level jet features which act as upper-level support for a surface/mid-level extra-tropical cyclone. When all of these things come together, you can quickly find a blossoming Winter-time coastal storm develop and consequently observe (via various high-resolution satellite imagers such as NOAA's GOES-16 satellite imager) very complex convection pivoting around the eastern, northern, and western periphery of the developing surface low. Such an example is reflected by the animated visible satellite imagery above which captures intense convection coming ashore into coastal sections of New Jersey and New York earlier in the day on Wednesday (March 7th, 2018). To learn more about other high-impact weather events occurring across the Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea, be sure to click the following link: https://www.globalweatherclimatecenter.com/atlantic-ocean-and-caribbean-sea! © 2018 Meteorologist Jordan Rabinowitz Tropical Cyclone Impacts on the Strength of the Gulf Stream (credit: American Geophysical Union)2/13/2018  DISCUSSION: One of the most important drivers of various atmospheric phenomena and global weather and/or climate patterns observed around the world is the global ocean system. There is no debate that long-term research has provided a clear connection between the variable strength of different ocean currents and weather-influencing climate patterns. Therefore, whether it is during the Winter-time or the Summer-time months, atmospheric scientists working and researching all over the world always have a keen focus to the strength and overall magnitude of various ocean currents. As far as the East Coast of the United States is concerned, one of the premiere ocean currents which is always closely watches is the world-famous Gulf Stream. The Gulf Stream is a relatively warm ocean current which runs roughly parallel to the East Coast of the United States, but offshore by several hundred miles most of the way. It is also important to note that it is a very important part of the climate system due to its inherent role in pole-ward heat and moisture transport.
During the latter portion of the 2017 Atlantic hurricane season, there was a ocean glider project deployed along the Gulf Stream by scientists from the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution in Massachusetts. There was a collection of very neat research executed by this ocean glider and some of it included "the glider diving as deep as 1,000 meters and measuring water temperature, salinity, the current’s speed, sediments, and microorganisms like phytoplankton and zooplankton in the water column." This ocean glider made some exceptional research findings which was highlighted by the fact that with the approach of both Hurricane Jose and Hurricane Maria, the forward motion of the Gulf Stream was slowed down by as much as between 25% and 40%. This slowed forward motion was chiefly attributed to the fact that the cyclonically-turning winds associated with the intense circulations of Hurricane Jose and Hurricane Maria were effectively blowing against the forward direction of the Gulf Stream itself. And, furthermore, it was observed that this happened through a good portion of the upper-most layers of the ocean along the track of the Gulf Stream and lasted substantially for a few weeks before returning to conventional northerly flow. Hence, it goes without saying that by living in the modern era of technology, this has now allowed scientists to measure and observe the global ocean-atmosphere coupled system and details thereof. To learn more about this particular story, feel free to click here! To learn more about other interesting weather-related stories occurring across the Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea, be sure to click here! © 2018 Meteorologist Jordan Rabinowitz GOES-16 Reveals Impressive Convection over Eastern and Central Cuba (credit: GOES-East and CIRA)1/28/2018 
DISCUSSION: As of earlier in the day on Sunday (01/28/2018), there was a truly impressive atmospheric phenomena captured over parts of Central and Eastern Cuba. This particular phenomena was best characterized as deep convection which blossomed along an east-to-west axis during the early to mid-afternoon hours. This afternoon convection was predominantly initiated as a result of forced air parcels ascending along the higher terrain (i.e., the mountainous terrain of Central/Eastern Cuba). The air parcels which were forced to quickly ascend the eastern mountains of Cuba were consequently destabilized much quicker. As a result of the more rapid air parcel destabilization, this also consequently initiated the development of rapid gravity wave progression away from the deep convection over Cuba.
These sorts of gravity wave-initiating convective events are not that unusual over places such as (but certainly not limited to) Cuba due to the fact that regions with elevated terrain have a greater propensity for deep convective storms. Moreover, in the tropical regions of the world (i.e., islands and countries located between 10 degrees North and 10 degrees South), it is quite common to find deep convective storms fire up in situations such as the one described above. That is primarily due to the fact there is a greater concentration of atmospheric water vapor throughout the course of the year due to the higher temperatures which predominate in those regions of the world. This higher average concentration of atmospheric water vapor is directly connected to the Clausius-Clapeyron equation relationship. The Clausius-Clapeyron which proves that for every 1 degree Celsius increase in temperature there is a proportional increase in the average water vapor content in the lowest parts of atmosphere. Thus, it is not uncommon or unusual to find such events occur in the Caribbean (or other tropical regions around the world) throughout the course of the calendar year. Attached above is a neat loop of GOES-16 capturing the deep convective event described above! To learn more about other interest weather events occurring across the Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea, be sure to click here! © 2018 Meteorologist Jordan Rabinowitz Tropical Storm Ophelia Taking Aim At Western Europe (credit: NWS National Hurricane Center)10/10/2017  DISCUSSION: As of late tonight (10/17/2017), Tropical Storm Ophelia continues to remain at tropical storm status. Despite time now having taken us well into the month of October, we continue to watch tropical Atlantic basin remain active. It goes without saying that this time of year is past the climatological peak for tropical cyclone activity; though this far from unusual nonetheless since some of the more intense tropical cyclones on record have occurred during the months of October and November around the world. In the case of Tropical Storm Ophelia, it appears to likely be a harmless system (i.e., in terms of possible land-based impacts). However, within the next couple of days after gradually drifting to the south, there is high degree of consensus that Ophelia will be picked up by an upper level trough. As a result, what is expected to be Tropical Storm Ophelia (by that point in time) will more quickly move off in a predominantly northeasterly direction taking Ophelia towards western Europe. Hence, despite being a system on a weakening trend at that point in time, it will likely still bring heavy rainfall and strong, gusty winds to parts of western Europe (and in particular across the British Isles).
To learn more about other high-impact weather events across the Atlantic Ocean and the Caribbean Sea, be sure to click here! ©2017 Meteorologist Jordan Rabinowitz 
DISCUSSION: As a broad area of tropical low pressure continues to develop over the next 24 to 48 hours, there will continue to be an increasing threat for development of this system. The primary reason for the increasing concerns associated with this weak broad area of low pressure is due to the fact that this area of low pressure will be moving into a region with very high oceanic sea-surface temperatures as well as relatively low low/mid-level environmental wind shear. The combination of these factors may very well allow the system to gradually intensify over the next couple of days before making its way towards the central Gulf Coast in all likelihood. More specifically, as put by Levi Cowan, there are particular intensification concerns due to there being a situation defined by "combining a low-level disturbance w/ high background vorticity, moisture, and a small-scale upper potential vorticity anomaly is a good way to get TC genesis."
To learn more about other high-impact weather events across the Atlantic Ocean and the Caribbean Sea, be sure to click here! ©2017 Meteorologist Jordan Rabinowitz  DISCUSSION: As time moves forward with Hurricane Maria, there are now finally definitive signs that this storm is beginning to enter its final stage of gradual weakening. During the course of the day on Sunday (09/24), Hurricane Maria began to lose a substantial amount of deeper convection in and around the center of the core circulation. As a result of this convective drop-off, there was also a corresponding drop-off in the intensity of the sustained maximum wind speeds in and around the eye of this weakening hurricane. It has lost so much convection in and around the center of its circulation, that Hurricane Maria may in fact be able to be downgraded to a tropical storm within the next 24 to 48 hours (depending on various environmental factors and such). Furthermore, any potential impacts to coastal sections of the Mid-Atlantic will certainly be substantially mitigated by the fact that this tropical cyclone will continue to weaken as it heads further north with time due to increasing amounts of vertical wind shear. Therefore, despite this storm currently being on and likely will continue on this current weakening trend, interests along the Carolinas should still keep a watchful eye on the progress of what is now a Category 1 Hurricane Maria just in case it takes a more northwest turn over the next couple of days as it heads north.
To learn more about other high-impact weather events occurring across the Atlantic Ocean and the Caribbean Sea, be sure to click here! ©2017 Meteorologist Jordan Rabinowitz 
DISCUSSION: As the tropical Atlantic basin continues to remain a hot topic over the past couple of weeks between the landfalls of both Hurricane Harvey and more recently of Hurricane Irma, the barrage of tropical cyclone threats is certainly not showing signs of slowing down. As of this afternoon (i.e., per Atlantic Standard Time), a more recent development in the more central portion of the tropical Atlantic (i.e., Hurricane Maria) has continued to show increasing signs of better organization and positive (but concerning) structural changes. First and foremost, the core convection associated with Hurricane Maria has become much more symmetric both in and around the center of Maria's circulation. Therefore, as this increasing and deeper convection continues to become better organized with time, this is a sign that the storm is likely beginning to undergo a period of intensification.
A couple of critical questions that still remain are directly connected to what track Maria ultimately takes over the next couple of days. If Maria takes a more northerly track within what the lead forecasters at the National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida are anticipating as the current forecast track cone of uncertainty, then this developing tropical cyclone will predominantly evade any real land-based interaction over the next couple of days. Therefore, if there ultimately ends up being very limited land-based interaction, this will allow Maria's core circulation to remain over a large swath of more open and warmer ocean sea-surface temperatures. Furthermore, over the next couple of days, Maria will be moving through a region with little to no low/mid-level vertical wind shear. Hence, the next few days will more than likely lend for a very favorable atmospheric environment for much more further intensification of what as of 5:00 PM EDT has now been upgraded to a Category 1 Hurricane Maria. Be sure to stay tuned both right here at the Global Weather and Climate Center as well as with the National Hurricane Center for the very latest on Maria as we move forward! To learn more about other high-impact weather events occurring across the Atlantic Ocean and the Caribbean Sea, be sure to click here! ©2017 Meteorologist Jordan Rabinowitz  DISCUSSION: In light of the recent impacts from Major Hurricane Irma all the way from the central to the western Caribbean to the southeastern United States, there were some truly incredible impacts from this latest powerful tropical cyclone. Having said that, from a satellite-based perspective, there were some prolific changes which unfolded as a result of Hurricane Irma's overall track. Attached below is a neat discussion courtesy of atmospheric scientists from the NASA Earth Observatory which is quite revealing in regards to what Irma did to parts of the Caribbean.
"Hurricane Irma churned across the Atlantic Ocean in September 2017, battering several Caribbean islands before moving on to the Florida Keys and the U.S. mainland. As the clouds cleared over places like the Virgin Islands, the destruction became obvious even from space. These natural-color images, captured by the Operational Land Imager (OLI) on the Landsat 8 satellite, show some of Irma’s effect on the British and U.S. Virgin Islands. The views were acquired on August 25 and September 10, 2017, before and after the storm passed. They are among the few relatively cloud-free satellite images of the area so far. The most obvious change is the widespread browning of the landscape. There are a number of possible reasons for this. Lush green tropical vegetation can be ripped away by a storm’s strong winds, leaving the satellite with a view of more bare ground. Also, salt spray whipped up by the hurricane can coat and desiccate leaves while they are still on the trees. Irma passed the northernmost Virgin Islands on the afternoon of September 6. At the time, Irma was a category 5 storm with maximum sustained winds of 185 miles (295 kilometers) per hour. According to news reports, the islands saw “significant devastation.”" To read this article in full and to get to see more details within the various images of various islands which were impacted, click on the following link. To learn more about other high-impact weather events occurring across North America, be sure to click here! ©2017 Meteorologist Jordan Rabinowitz The Latest on the Future of Category 5 Hurricane Irma (credit: NWS National Hurricane Center)9/5/2017 
DISCUSSION: As more and more concerns continue to pile up for the forthcoming arrival of Hurricane Irma across the central and western Caribbean, there are still many questions to be figured out with respect to the future track of Irma. Beyond its time in the Caribbean, there is still a fairly large degree of uncertainty with respect to both where Irma will go from there and how strong Irma will be after it begins to depart the farthest parts of the western Caribbean. Having said that, attached above is a detailed (but concise) briefing on the current situation with Hurricane Irma and how things look right now. Be sure to listen to the video briefing above for the latest and also stay tuned right here at the Global Weather and Climate Center as well as on our Twitter account which can be accessed through the following link.
To learn more about other high-impact weather events occurring across the Atlantic Ocean and the Caribbean Sea, be sure to click here! ©2017 Meteorologist Jordan Rabinowitz Dangerous Cat. 4 Irma Moving Towards the Eastern Caribbean (credit: NWS National Hurricane Center)9/4/2017 
DISCUSSION: As Major Hurricane Irma continued to intensify over the past several hours, there has been an increasingly larger amount of collective hype in the media over this powerful incoming tropical cyclone. However, even though a State of Emergency has already been issued for the state of Florida as of earlier this afternoon, it is imperative to keep in mind that the future track of this large and dangerous tropical cyclone is not by any means "etched into stone yet." Therefore, please stay tuned to our website and our Twitter feed for the very latest! For additional details on the current (and future projected) status of Major Hurricane Irma, be sure to watch the brief Periscope briefing attached above.
To learn more about this and other high-impact weather events occurring across the Atlantic Ocean and the Caribbean Sea, be sure to click here! ©2017 Meteorologist Jordan Rabinowitz  DISCUSSION: Although it is clear that Hurricane Gert will not be any immediate threat to land, it still will continue to make at least some weather headlines. This is due to the fact that even as Gert continues heading farther out to sea with time, it has still continued to remain fairly well organized as time has moved along. In addition to remaining well-organized, relatively warmer sea-surface temperatures have also allowed the core cyclonic vortex circulation of Gert to further intensify as a result of a consistently effective net energy transfer from the surface to the low/mid-levels of this tropical cyclone. Hence, even as Hurricane Gert travels farther and farther into the northwestern Atlantic Ocean, it will likely retain its present intensity which currently stands as a Category 2 Hurricane. However, as Gert continues traveling into higher latitudes, there will be increasing cooler sea-surface temperatures which will not allow Gert to strengthen further or even maintain its present intensity since there will no longer be sufficient latent heat energy exchange between the cooler ocean and the northward-moving tropical cyclone. Thus, we will soon begin to observe the gradual demise of Hurricane Gert within the next 48 to 72 hours.
To learn more about other high-impact weather events occurring across the Atlantic Ocean and the Caribbean Sea, be sure to click here! ©2017 Meteorologist Jordan Rabinowitz Gulf of Mexico Sea-Surface Temperatures Add More Concern (credit: WFTV Meteorologist Irene Sans)8/6/2017  DISCUSSION: As a recently strengthened Tropical Storm Franklin continues to make its final approach towards the eastern Yucatan Peninsula located in far eastern Mexico, there still remain to be some concerns about what lies ahead with respect to the future intensity of Tropical Storm Franklin. As discussed in the brief video briefing above (courtesy of Meteorologist Jordan Rabinowitz), there are still some legitimate concerns for the possibility of a more intense center of circulation of Franklin (i.e., a more intense tropical cyclone than is currently being forecast) to impact eastern mainland Mexico within the next 48 to 60 hours from now. As discussed in more detail in the short video briefing attached above, this is predominantly due to the anomalously warm sea-surface temperatures in place as "perfectly placed fuel" for this tropical storm upon it re-emerging over the eastern Bay of Campeche later tomorrow night. To learn more about this evolving situation, be sure to watch the brief video discussion above!
To learn more about other high-impact weather events occurring across the Atlantic Ocean and the Caribbean Sea, be sure to click here! ©2017 Meteorologist Jordan Rabinowitz Possible Tropical Cyclone Development in Western Caribbean (credit: NWS Ocean Prediction Center)8/6/2017 
DISCUSSION: Over the course of the next couple of days, there currently remains to be a very high likelihood of tropical cyclone development across part of the western Caribbean Sea. This is chiefly due to the persistent presence of an area of very disturbed weather positioned across the western Caribbean Sea in association with a fairly rapidly strengthening tropical wave which is currently on a track headed towards the Yucatan Peninsula at the present time. At this weak area of low pressure gradually tracks towards the Yucatan Peninsula, some minor vertical wind shear may mitigate this weak tropical low-pressure system's ability to strengthen over the next 24 to 30 hours before making its first likely landfall in the far eastern part of the Yucatan Peninsula. After making its first landfall, it will most likely emerge over the far eastern portion of the Bay of Campeche. It is at that point when it is currently projected to attain its peak intensity before making its second likely landfall in far eastern Mexico as a more potent tropical cyclone.
As shown in the brief satellite imagery clip shown above (courtesy of the National Weather Service Ocean Prediction Center, this tropical low-pressure system is in its earliest stages of development at the present time. It is for the reasons stated above that it will become increasingly important to stay tuned to our team at the Global Weather and Climate Center as well as at the website of the National Hurricane Center for more updates on this evolving situation! To learn more about other high-impact weather events occurring across the Atlantic Ocean and the Caribbean Sea, be sure to click here! ©2017 Meteorologist Jordan Rabinowitz  The tropical depression in the Atlantic has recently been upgraded to a tropical storm named Emily, being the 5th one this hurricane season. Currently, Emily has maximum sustained winds of 40 knots, or 45 mph, and is moving east at 9 mph. She is expected to cross over Tampa Bay, Florida soon, with a tropical storm warning issued for the area. This includes advisories for high winds and heavy rain being issued currently for the central and southern tip of the Florida peninsula. The biggest threat associated with Emily is winds forecasted to be 20-30 mph with gust up to 40 mph, and locally heavy rainfall, with some areas receiving 2 - 4 inches today. This can lead to a possible storm surge along with flash floods. These conditions hold a threat to property damage and personal safety. Also associated with this storm is a chance of an isolated waterspout in the coastal areas of the warned parts of Florida. In simple terms, this means a non-supercell tornado is possible to form over water.
Tropical Storm Emily is expected to make landfall in western Florida this afternoon, continuing across the state throughout the night, and emerging off the coast by early Tuesday morning. Although there are currently advisories associated with Tropical Storm Emily, the storm is expected to slowly weaken while passing over Florida, and eventually go out to the Atlantic before diminishing completely. For more updates on Atlantic storms for this hurricane season, be sure to click here! ©2017 Meteorologist Claudia Pukropski Insights on First Subtropical Low which has been upgraded to Tropical Storm Arlene (credit: CIMSS)4/19/2017 
DISCUSSION: Over the last 24 to 48 hours, there have been interesting developments across parts of the North Atlantic Ocean. During this period of time, the first tropical depression of the 2017 hurricane season formed. Within 24 hours of its formation, there was then sufficient information for forecasters at the National Hurricane Center located in Miami, Florida to upgrade Tropical Depression One to Tropical Storm Arlene. Thus, here on April 20th, we now have the first named storm of 2017 hurricane season. It is worth noting that this storm is a direct by-product of the current satellite era that atmospheric scientists now live in. By looking at the lower satellite imagery animation with visible and infrared satellite imagery attached side-by-side, you can clearly see how there was a notable increase in convection around the center of the circulation of what formerly Tropical Depression One. Thus, there was sufficient evidence via multiple satellite imagery channels to support Tropical Depression One being upgraded to Tropical Storm Arlene.
To learn more about other high-impact weather events occurring across the Atlantic Ocean and the Caribbean Sea, be sure to click here! ©2017 Meteorologist Jordan Rabinowitz |
Archives
May 2019
|
RSS Feed