Tropical Storm Eugene continues to churn off of the west coast of Mexico. As you can see from the graphic above, Eugene will continue to the northwest and is expected to weaken into a remnant low in the next 24-48 hours. As of the 8:00 AM advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center, Tropical Storm Eugene has maximum sustained winds of 50 mph and is moving 10 mph to the northwest. The NHC noted that even though the center is off shore, there are still impacts to the coast of southern California. The storm will continue to bring high surf and dangerous rip currents to Baja, California as it moves northwestward. Eugene is expected to dissipate completely within the next 5 days. The official 8:00 AM advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center is as follows:
Deep convection associated with Eugene is diminishing in depth and
areal coverage. Consequently, subjective Dvorak estimates from SAB
and TAFB as well as objective ADT values from CIMSS continue to
drop. The initial intensity is set at 45 kt, though this is with a
substantial amount of uncertainty.
A 0949Z AMSR2 microwave image helped to locate the center of Eugene
this morning. The system is moving toward the northwest at about 9
kt. Eugene is expected to continue moving in the same direction
and speed for the next couple of days, as it is rounding the
southwestern portion of a mid-level subtropical ridge. The
official track forecast is nearly unchanged and continues to be
based upon the multi-model consensus technique TVCN.
Eugene has been weakening due to ingestion of cool and dry air as
it moves into the stratocumulus-infested waters west of Baja
California. This will continue due to the northwestward track over
even cooler SSTs during the next two days. It is expected that
Eugene will lose its deep convection and become a remnant low in
24-36 hr and dissipate completely in about 5 days. The official
intensity forecast is slightly lower than that previously and is
based upon the multi-model consensus technique IVCN.
Swells generated by Eugene will continue to propagate northward
along the west coast of the Baja California peninsula to southern
California during the next couple days, causing high surf and
dangerous rip current conditions. Please refer to statements issued
by your local weather office for additional information.
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ⓒ 2017 Meteorologist Brandie Cantrell