DISCUSSION: June 1st through November 30th is defined as the Atlantic hurricane season, with the busiest months being between mid-August and mid-September along the East Coast and in the Eastern Caribbean. In 2017, Hurricane Preparedness Week is from May 7th to May 13th , and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration will be holding hurricane awareness tours in April and May at select locations to teach visitors about weather preparedness and safety. The Caribbean Hurricane Tour will start April 24th and end April 29th. The East Coast Hurricane Tour begins May 7th and ends May 12th. Locations for each tour are as follows:
April 24 – Merida, Mexico
April 25 – San Pedro Sula, Honduras
April 26 – Cayman Islands
April 27 – Turks and Caicos
April 29 – Aquadilla, Puerto Rico
May 7 – Newfoundland, Canada (Gander International Airport)
May 8 – New York, New York (Long Island MacArthur Airport)
May 9 – Washington D.C. (Ronald Reagan Washington International Airport)
May 10 – Raleigh, North Carolina (Raleigh-Durham International Airport)
May 11 – Orlando, Florida (Orlando Executive Airport)
May 12 – Miami, Florida (Opa-Locka Executive Airport)
This year’s tours are brought by NOAA and some of its partnering agencies including FEMA, and the USAF Reserve. At each location, those interested will have the opportunity to meet the pilots who fly the aircraft into the storm to record the valuable data as well as look at one of the Hurricane Hunter airplanes used. More information about Hurricane Preparedness Week can be found here!
To learn more about tropical cyclones and tropical cyclone events from around the world, be sure to click here!
©2017 Meteorologist Nicholas Quaglieri
Hurricane season is June 1st to November 30th, however, on April 19, 2017 Subtropical Depression One formed in the Atlantic Ocean. Maximum sustained winds of the system are at 35 mph located in the eastern Atlantic moving North at 12 mph.
Even though a subtropical depression looks like a typical tropical depression, the two are very different. Like a tropical cyclone, a subtropical cyclone is a closed, non-frontal low pressure system that forms over water. Unlike a tropical cyclone, subtropical cyclones lack a dense overcast and have a cold core. In a subtropical cyclone, the heaviest thunderstorm activity is away from the center of circulation unlike a tropical cyclone where the heaviest thunderstorm activity is circulating the center.
The National Hurricane Center is not expecting this system to intensify to a tropical storm. The subtropical depression is expected to stay over open water in the eastern Atlantic. The discussion from the National Hurricane Center is as follows:
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Subtropical Depression One
was located near latitude 32.4 North, longitude 40.0 West. The
depression is moving toward the north near 12 mph (19 km/h), and
this motion is expected to continue tonight and early Thursday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is anticipated tonight, and the
subtropical depression is forecast to become absorbed by an
approaching extratropical low on Thursday.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches).
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ⓒ Meteorologist Brandie Cantrell
As we get closer to the start of hurricane season, there is a growing interest to learn more about how tropical cyclones form and intensity across the wide expanse of the Tropical Atlantic Ocean and across other oceanic basins as well! In thinking about this exact subject, the Weather Forecast Solutions team (based in Fort Lauderdale, Florida) created a neat article which encompasses many important details surrounding the science behind tropical cyclones. For example, part of this article discusses the process in which tropical cyclone formation and intensification occurs and goes into how the ocean and atmosphere collectively interact to generate such large, powerful cyclones which frequently inflict major damage on coastal communities around the world on a seasonal basis. To read the full article, just click on the following link!
To learn more about other neat tropical cyclone stories from around the world, be sure to click here!
©2017 Meteorologist Jordan Rabinowitz
DISCUSSION: As of earlier today, Tropical Cyclone Enawo continued to intensity offshore from the eastern coast of Madagascar. As it currently stands, Enawo is maintaining the equivalent intensity of a Category 4 hurricane across the central-to-eastern Pacific Ocean as well as across the Tropical Atlantic basin. As can be clearly seen in the recent animated infrared satellite imagery (courtesy of the Cooperative Institute of Meteorological Satellite Studies or CIMSS), this current tropical cyclone (as rare as it is to occur at this higher intensity offshore from eastern Africa and/or Madagascar) even has a clear and symmetric eye and eye-wall associated with the center of the circulation. Moreover, you can also see the brighter colored cloud tops which indicates the presence of the deeper thunderstorms wrapped tightly around the center of the circulation of Tropical Cyclone Enawo. Thus, Tropical Cyclone Enawo is a very powerful, symmetric, and well-organized cyclone with a plethora of energy is associated with it. Therefore, all those in the path of this incoming tropical cyclone should give it due respect and avoid remaining in the path of this powerful tropical cyclone if at all possible.
To learn more about high-impact weather events occurring across Africa, be sure to click here!
©2017 Meteorologist Jordan Rabinowitz
DISCUSSION: For all of you who are and even for those of you who are not particularly interested in learning about some of the more recent developments and findings in tropical cyclone research, here is something many of you will enjoy! By clicking the following link, you will be directed to the PDF version of this recent tropical cyclone research collection which you will be sure to enjoy which was edited by Dr. Anthony Lupo!
To learn more about other tropical cyclone education and tropical cyclone events from around the world, be sure to click here!
©2017 Meteorologist Jordan Rabinowitz
DISCUSSION: Over the next 24 to 48 hours Typhoon Nockten is expected to make its final approach towards the eastern Philippines. However, as this tropical cyclone continues heading on this westward track towards the eastern Philippines, there is high confidence in the expectation for this tropical cyclone to strengthen prior to its initial landfall in the far eastern Philippines later in the day on Christmas Day (i.e., local time which is GMT + 8 hours). As a consequence of this anticipated period of intensification (possibly rapid intensification), there are expected to be significant (and possibly severe) impacts particularly along coastal sections of the eastern/central Philippines. For this reason, if you have family, friends, or colleagues currently positioned across various parts of the eastern-to-central Philippines, it would be best to advise them to seek shelter at higher ground with sufficient infrastructural design. Due to the rate of forward motion coupled with the Category 3/4 equivalent wind speeds associated with the circulation of Nockten, there is high likelihood of a significant storm surge to impact many coastal areas along with strong onshore flow and heavy rainfall linked to the landfall of the outer and inner circulation sections of Typhoon Nockten.
To learn more about other high-impact weather events from across Asia, be sure to click here!
©2016 Meteorologist Jordan Rabinowitz
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DISCUSSION: As Tropical Cyclone Vardah made its official landfall in and around the city of Chennai, India just under 2 days ago, this strong tropical low pressure certainly made its presence known. At the time of landfall late Sunday night, TC Vardah had intensified up to the equivalent strength of a strong Category 1 hurricane with maximum sustained wind speeds of roughly between 90 and 100 mph with some possibly higher gusts at times. Having said that, there was also a plethora of rainfall which caused widespread flooding and many instances fo flash flooding due to tremendous run-off of rainwater into valleys and cities/villages therein. Therefore, even by accounting for the increased international forecast coverage during the hours leading up to the landfall of TC Vardah, there were still some who did not appear to take this event as seriously as it should have been.
As you can seen in the eye-witness footage attached above (courtesy of Echants before being re-shared by the iCyclone team), this storm certainly packed quite a punch in the coastal areas of southeastern India as the strong winds associated with the inner eyewall convection tore through this region of the Subcontinent. This is a great example of why it is always so imperative to respect the power of these potentially life-threatening tropical cyclones and to always take real-time forecast information at its word without any debate.
To learn more about other tropical cyclone-based events from around the world, be sure to click here!
©2016 Meteorologist Jordan Rabinowitz
DISCUSSION: As of earlier this afternoon, forecasters working at the NWS National Hurricane Center (located in Miami, Florida) were studying the evolution of a slowly strengthening Tropical Storm Otto. Based on a plethora of information ascertained from large-scale satellite structure and intensity estimates that this tropical storm officially reached hurricane status as of the 4:00 PM EST NHC update. In the associated forecast advisory update from earlier this afternoon (included below for your convenience), they discussed specific details concerning the future track and anticipated impacts from Hurricane Otto.
Tuesday 22 November 2016 NHC Hurricane Otto Forecast Discussion:
"RAINFALL: Outer rain bands from Otto are expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 4 to 8 inches over San Andres and Providencia islands, and the higher terrain of central and western Panama and southern Costa Rica through Wednesday. Total rainfall of 6 to 12 inches, with isolated amounts of 15 to 20 inches, can be expected across northern Costa Rica and southern Nicaragua through Thursday. These rains will likely result in life-threatening flash floods and mud slides.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area in Panama tonight and are possible in the tropical storm watch area in Panama on Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in San Andres by late Wednesday. Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area on Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm watch area in Nicaragua on Thursday.
SURF: Swells generated by Otto are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions over the next several days along the coasts of Panama, Costa Rica and Nicaragua. Please consult products from your local weather office."
To learn more about other high-impact weather events from across the Caribbean, be sure to click here!
~Meteorologist Jordan Rabinowitz
Suddenly Seymour is a Category 4 Hurricane! (Credit: NWS National Hurricane Center, NOAA Satellite and Information Service
Hurricane Seymour in the eastern Pacific has been upgraded to a category 4 on the Saffir-Simpson Wind Scale (which measures a hurricane’s maximum sustained winds) with maximum sustained winds of 130 mph. Hurricane Seymour has a minimum central pressure of 954 mb. The storm is currently located approximately 655 miles southwest off the tip of the Baja Peninsula in southern California. The storm is expected to make a turn to the west-northwest over the next few days and gradually weaken. This is a small tropical cyclone, with hurricane winds extending outward 25 miles from the center of the storm and tropical storm force winds extending out up to 90 miles. Hurricane Seymour is not expected to be a threat to land. Above is a great view of Hurricane Seymour from the GOES-West Satellite! To learn more about other high-impact tropical cyclone-based weather events from around the world, be sure to click here!
DISCUSSION: The only difference between a hurricane and a cyclone is the terminology. For those tropical cyclones which impact North America, we refer to them as hurricanes. Alternatively, across the Australia/Indian Ocean region, they are referred to as cyclones. You can also note from the image above that across eastern Asia and the western Pacific Ocean, they are known as typhoons. Bottom line, these different parts of the world have different titles for the same fundamental type of storm. These storms are all effectively large-scale storm systems which either spin in a counterclockwise direction (Northern Hemisphere) or a clockwise direction (Southern Hemisphere). So, effectively, tropical cyclones which develop in different parts of the world all have similar structure as shown in the images below.
To learn more about other high-impact tropical cyclone-based weather events from around the world, be sure to click here!
~Weather Forecaster Christine Clements