DISCUSSION: As of the current time, there is a concerning situation developing just offshore from parts of northeastern Australia. Here is the direct forecast discussion as posted by the Higgins Storm Chasing team concerning this serious and evolving forecast situation.
"A low pressure system of 1005 hectopascals is currently located 750 km to the northeast of Cairns, Australia while intensifying. This low has a very high chance of further developing into a tropical low in the Coral Sea off the North Queensland coast during Thursday and Friday. The tropical low is very likely to move in a South Westerly direction towards the North Queensland coast while intensifying. During Saturday there is a 50% moderate risk and on Sunday a 75% high risk chance for the system to further develop into a tropical cyclone. The image linked above is courtesy of Weatherzone."
Then their team goes on to say the following:
"Important forecast note: A world leading high resolution computer model suggests the potential cyclone may undergo a period of rapid intensification during Sunday and early Monday just prior to possible landfall. This rapid intensification would be due to the system encountering a very favorable environment of 30 °C sea surface temperatures and very low vertical wind shear. Given this forecast data scenario, a severe category 3 cyclone with VERY DESTRUCTIVE wind gusts between 165 km/hr and 224 km/hr would be possible.
There is still some uncertainty though with all global forecast data sets on the exact strength, timing and crossing of the system. People along the North Queensland Coast between Cairns and Mackay including the adjacent inland at this stage should closely monitor further forecasts and updates.
Our forecast confidence is extremely high (90%) for a minimum of tropical low development and coastal crossing in North Queensland with strong winds, heavy rain and possible flooding. This heavy rain and possible flooding would also extend through northern inland sections of Australia into early next week. We have produced our second premium member forecast release with high resolution detailed tropical low / cyclone forecast track maps and threats for Queensland. Existing HSC premium members please login here to view daily forecasts and maps. Further daily updates will be issued which will greatly increase if a cyclone develops."
To learn more about other high-impact events occurring the South Pacific Ocean and Australia, be sure to click here!
©2017 Meteorologist Jordan Rabinowitz