DISCUSSION: A weakening Hurricane Newton continues its northward journey out of the far Eastern Pacific Ocean, through the Gulf of California, and towards the Southwestern United States. As it continues to do so, there will be an increased threat for persistent, heavy rainfall across southern to central parts of Arizona as well as New Mexico. That being said, based on the fact that this Category 1 hurricane is currently situated approximately over the northern part of the Gulf of California with the deepest moisture associated with Newton located north and northeast of this tropical low pressure system's circulation center. This is further supported by the atached animated forecast graphic courtesy of the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model centered over the region of concern.
Based on the information explained in the post linked above (courtesy of the National Weather Service office in Tuscon, Arizone), this continues a concerning situation due to the continued threat emanating from Hurricane Newton. The primary reason for this heightened concern for this hurricane's second landfall in Southern/Central Arizona and parts of New Mexico is the more variable (and elevated) terrain spread across the Southwestern United States. With more elevated terrain, there is inherently an increased threat for both heavier rainfall (i.e., which often occurs as a consequence of increased orographic enhancement as air parcels are forced to rise over the more elevated terrain) and subsequent flooding which ensues as the heavy rainfall runs through and down valleys positioned between the areas of higher terrain. Therefore, this threat will persist for the next 24 to 48 hour or so, until the bulk of the heaviest precipitation associated with what will eventually be Tropical Storm and then Tropical Depression Newton moves further east and northeast. To learn more about other high-impact weather events from across North America, be sure to clickhere!